Early Season Enigmas

TheHockeyWriters.com Guest Commentary

The following is guest commentary from Chris O’Brien, The Hockey Underground (Fantasy Hockey Depot)

Early Season Enigmas

Yes, the season is in its’ infancy, but there are a few of the NHL’s perennial scoring elite off to abysmal starts. I examine the reasons for the lag, and what the future holds for these underachievers, and your fantasy rosters.

Vincent Lecavalier

Average goals over last 4 seasons:  .49 goals/game
Average points over last 4 seasons: 1.07 pts/game

The “Michael Jordan of Hockey” has crawled out the gates in 09/10 – with no goals in Tampa’s first seven games.  To be fair, he does have six helpers, which is decent, but the captain and former 50 goal scorer, is counted on to elevate his play when the team needs him most.

While labouring with a wrist injury last season, Lecavalier recorded his lowest goal and second lowest point totals since the 2002-2003 season. The Lightning ultimately shut him down in April to get him ready for the upcoming season.

Wrist injuries are tricky, and can dramatically impact the release and velocity of your shot. It wouldn’t be much of a stretch to assume that Vinny has not fully recovered from his injury.

Recommendation: The warning signs are there: dwindling numbers over the past two seasons, and possible lingering effects of the wrist injury. I don’t feel that Lecavalier will rebound as a point-per-game player this season, despite a stronger supporting cast in Tampa.

Fantasy owners, this is a great opportunity to listen to offers for Lecavalier, who still holds great value in fantasy circles, and should garner a really strong return if you play your cards right.  Strike while the iron is hot!

Jarome Iginla

Average goals over last 4 seasons:   .5 goals/game
Average points over last 4 seasons:  1.1 pts/game

Even while flanking top-notch pivot Olli Jokinen , Jerome Iginla is struggling to make the expected impact for the Flames early on. The captain appears to be playing without his usual level of urgency, and almost appears lackadaisical at times on the ice.

Recommendation: Should be nothing to worry about here, folks.  Iggy started slowly last year with 3 points in Calgary’s first six games. He eventually shook off the rust and finished off the season with 35 goals and 89 points. Iginla is too talented and the Flames too deep for Iggy not to rebound this season.

Expect Iginla to be a significant factor in the PIM category this year, as he tends to fluctuate between strong and mediocre PIM totals every season. If you follow the statistical trends, you have to believe he’s good for 80+ PIMs. With 16 PIMs so far – almost half of last season’s totals – it appears to be a good indicator that the trend will continue.

Pavel Datsyuk

Average goals over last 4 seasons:   .37 goals/game
Average points over last 4 seasons:   1.16 pts/game

Normally loaded with overwhelming talent up and down the lineup, the Red Wings can no longer make that claim. Sure, they are still a highly talented team, but Detroit sustained major losses up front, to the tune of 116 regular season goals from:  Marian Hossa (40), Jiri Hudler (23), Mikael Samuelsson (19), and Johan Franzen (34).  Losing that kind of firepower ensures that a player like Datsyuk will have to face tighter checking, and may account for his lack of production thus far.

Recommendation: Datsyuk remains one of the most skilled players in the league, yet I can’t help shake the feeling that Detroit is on a sinking ship, and Datysuk’s numbers will follow suit.

In short, if you can find away to maximize your return for Datsyuk via trade, seriously consider it.

Ryan Getzlaf

Average goals over last 3 seasons:   .31 goals/game
Average points over last 3 seasons:  .96 pts/game

Getzlaf is a perennial slow starter.  In 08/09 he registered only two points in his first seven contests, while managing only one point in the first four games the season before that.  He did, however, have off-season hernia surgery, missing a few preseason games, but that appears to be water under the bridge.

Recommendation: Getzlaf is a fantasy stud.  Expect him to quickly re-establish his normal dominance and approach 100 points this season.

Eric Staal

Average goals over last 4 seasons:   .47 goals/game
Average points over last 4 seasons:  1.00 pts/game

Staal plodded through the first 25 games under Peter Laviolette scoring only 15 points during the 2008-09 season. Laviolette was eventually replaced by Paul Maurice and Staal responded to the change posting 60 points in the final 57 games.

Recommendation: The Canes showed an incredible amount of heart and desire during the last half of last season and into the playoffs, upsetting both New Jersey and Boston, en route to a berth in the Eastern conference finals.

With no coaching change in sight, Staal is going to have to find a way to elevate his play. It may be that he is developing in to a slow starter, but it is also possible that he is due for a sub-par season following a highly emotional playoff. The most likely scenario is that his play is being affected by a sore knee, which has forced him to miss a few practices.

If you don’t have other options, Staal is still a good play, otherwise look for an upgrade this season.

Simon Gagne

2005-06 Philadelphia Flyers 72 47 32 79 38
2006-07 Philadelphia Flyers 76 41 27 68 30
2007-08 Philadelphia Flyers 25 7 11 18 4
2008-09 Philadelphia Flyers 79 34 40 74 42

Average goals over last 4 seasons:   .51 goals/game
Average points over last 4 seasons:  .94 pts/game

Dreams of a healthy Simon Gagne on a team as offensively stacked as the Flyers are enough to make any poolie salivate. Sadly, his health is a problem.

During the offseason Gagne underwent a procedure to surgically repair his hip. While still able to play, Gagne has reported tightness in the hip. Doctors have stated recently that the tightness will not subside until December approximately. This type of affliction will drastically affect Gagne agility and quickness on the ice, which will in turn affect his production in a big way.

Recommendation: Ditch this guy ASAP.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.