Fantasy Hockey: Trust Your Gut

Dustin Byfuglien (Flickr/ShayHaas)

[Ed. Note: Today's guest column is from Joe Romano. He'll be leading our fantasy hockey coverage over the summer to have you ready for your league by the time the puck drops in October.]

I’d like to start my first column by introducing myself. I am Joe Romano and will help you navigate the world of fantasy hockey. When I am not watching, reading or writing about hockey, I try to find a few hours a day to practice law. I have played and coached ice hockey at various levels for about 20 years. In that time, I have assisted on goals scored by today’s NHLers, I’ve dropped the gloves with a couple NHL tough guys, and I have coached players competing at Division 1 colleges. Additionally, I have competed in fantasy hockey for about a decade and have also written about fantasy hockey for the past three years.

Here’s the catch, nothing that I have seen, read, or done makes me any better than you. There are no fantasy experts. Nobody writing about fantasy sports is clairvoyant. We haven’t channeled the hockey gods. Anyone trying to convince you otherwise is just trying to compensate. While I can’t tell you with any certainty that Mikko Koivu won’t live up to his lofty contract (although he won’t, $6.75 million per year for 22 goals and some intangibles, really?), what I can do is try to stimulate thought.

My goal isn’t to provide all the answers, more often than not I’ll be wrong, my goal is to get you thinking. I want to help you consider all of the angles to a transaction or a change in line combinations. I’ll give you a second opinion on a player that may be riding your fence. Fantasy opinions that I trust are not the ones with all the answers, but the ones trying to simply provide the necessary tools to win. This is what I will strive to do for you.

While we are at the dead point of the fantasy hockey calendar, now is the time to really think about the recent transactions and their affect on the 2010-11 season. When you hear about a transaction, try to remember your gut feeling, chances are it will be right. Trusting your gut is the most important lesson any fantasy player can learn.

If you thought to yourself that Dustin Byfuglien would struggle in Atlanta, remember that. It is your gut reaction to the trade. Don’t let someone else try to convince you otherwise. Chances are you had this feeling because you know Byfuglien wasn’t a real valuable fantasy asset while in Chicago. You know that the caliber of his teammates is significantly worse, his offensive output has never been very good, and he has always been viewed favorably because, at one time, he was defenseman eligible. These rational thoughts fed your gut instinct.

However, over the next couple of months, you will be fed hoopla about his awesome playoffs, his increased time on the ice and that he is only 24. You can sift through this rubbish by focusing on your gut instinct. You will realize his playoff hype was fed by his style of play, which pays dividends in the spring, not during the winter months. You will remember that he was already playing plenty and more time doesn’t equate to softer hands, better vision, and better scoring touch. Lastly, you will recall that, although young, he has no hockey pedigree. He was an eighth round pick and has made it because of his size and strength, not his hands, speed, shot, or vision.

You may disagree about Byfuglien. Your gut may have told you the opposite. What I think compared to what you think isn’t the key. The key is to trust your instinct. Here are some other gut instincts I have had so far this summer.

Paul Martin is the safest Penguins defenseman to own this year.

Paul Martin (Flickr/absenthero)

Once it became apparent Sergei Gonchar was gone, youngsters Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang were expected to take over the offensive duties on the blue line. Ray Shero, however, had other plans. Martin is not Gonchar, but his presence will likely push Goligoski to the third defensive unit and off the top power play unit. Letang will still log plenty of ice time, but will likely become the Penguins fourth option on the power play and secondary to Martin on the point. Also, I expect Letang will remain on the top power play unit because he is a righty, but there is no guaranteeing that, further proving my point. Martin could slip under the radar during the draft season and may be a significant bargain for a 10 goal 40 assist defenseman.

I can’t see Marian Hossa approaching a point per game this season…

…a total he needs to top to justify his expected draft position. Now this can change slightly depending on what else happens in Chicago, but right now it looks like Hossa will be the odd man out between himself, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane. This was fine last year when there was plenty of talent to go around in Chicago, but, this season, things could get a little dicey. Many view Hossa as a top 20-30 player, but I don’t think he gets there. Don’t get me wrong, he will still give you strong numbers, but its going to cost you more than its worth. Consider yourself lucky if he gives you 30 goals and 40 assists.

I won’t go ahead and say John Tavares will put in 50 like last season’s super sophomore…

…but he will continue progressing into one of the NHL’s top talents. The Islanders have done an excellent job developing a solid young roster behind underrated GM Garth Snow. While they haven’t added a significant offensive piece, the additions of Mark Eaton and Milan Jurcina should keep the puck out of the defensive zone a little more, allowing Tavares more time to work in the attacking end. I think Tavares is a solid candidate for 30 goals and 40 assists. When considering my last point, I’ll pass on Hossa and wait a couple rounds later to take Tavares and get the same production.

I’ll finish up with my gut reaction to the only two 2010 draftees expected to make a splash in the NHL

Taylor Hall is probably a more fantasy ready asset, but I would rather have Tyler Seguin this season.

My reasoning is three-fold; I am in the camp that believes Marc Savard will be traded opening up a spot for Seguin on the top two lines. I believe Boston provides a better atmosphere for Seguin to develop this season. Lastly, Hall will command a greater draft day price and will go anywhere between three to six rounds earlier than Seguin.

I understand that Hall has nothing holding him back in Edmonton, but there is a chance he could score 20 goals with 30 assists and be a minus 25, essentially killing most of his value. Seguin may only get 15 goals with 25-30 assists, but chances are he won’t hurt any area of your team and he will be less expensive to acquire. With that said, the best way to approach each is to look at your team and decide if it is made up of safer players or high risk. Hall is he riskier of the two, but could provide the higher return. Seguin, however, should be a safer pick but the upside may be limited due to probably being a second liner all year.

If you have had any other gut reactions or just think I’m an idiot, I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

- Joe Romano

Posted by Mike Colligan on Jul 18 2010. Filed under Atlanta Thrashers, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Edmonton Oilers, Fantasy, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry