photo: Elliot \ WikiCommons

With the Panthers “earning” the 3^rd overall draft pick via Tuesday night’s lottery, it’s time to put an end to the season that was and look ahead to the season that will be.  In the rear view mirror is a season in which Florida finished 28^th in the league, last in the southeast division.  The Cats finished with just 32 wins and 77 points, their fewest totals since the 2003-2004 season.  Only two teams scored fewer goals this season than Florida (Boston and Calgary).  Numbers don’t lie, this season sucked and might be summed up best by a couple of Keith Ballard plays…

And yet, the regular season finale, a 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay, ended with confetti falling from the rafters.  But I digress…

There are plenty of excuses to explain the numbers, most of which can be found here.  In summation, David Booth’s concussion suffered just 9 games into the season set the Panthers behind the 8-ball, and they simply never recovered.  Losing Nathan Horton for an extended period of time from February–March certainly didn’t help.  The Panthers only had their top two scoring threats in the starting lineup at the same time for 15-20 games or so.  No one stepped up to fill the scoring voids, and the Panthers are now drafting 3^rd overall.  To put it in plain numbers, Florida’s leading scorer, Stephen Weiss, finished with just 60 points.  No Panther scored more than 28 goals.  Only three scored more than 20.  And that’s that.

So enough gloom and doom.  “Those that fail to learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them,” or so someone smarter than myself once said.  Is this the summer that the Panthers finally learn from their decade of misery?  I’d like to say yes, I’d love to.  There is just far too much yet to be determined to make any kind of optimistic projection.  Here’s a look at what this offseason holds for the Florida Panthers.

Upcoming Free Agents: RFA’s; Kenndal McArdle, Gregory Campbell, Nick Tarnasky, Jason Garrison, Mathieu Roy.  UFA’s; Kamil Kreps.

This list is remarkably small, thanks to some trade deadline moves.  I would not be surprised to see only 1 or 2 of these players brought back.  Jason Garrison is a solid defenseman who split time with Florida (39 GP) and AHL affiliate Rochester.  He seemed to grow more comfortable in his NHL role towards the end of the season, and Garrison (25 years old) could be a starting defenseman on what might be a young blue line with Dmitry Kulikov (20 years old) and Keaton Ellerby (22 years old) next year.

Gregory Campbell had a disappointing season, only scoring twice after a 2008-2009 season that saw him put in 13 goals.  Unfortunately, I think the 13 goal campaign was an anomaly, and more of what we saw this year is to come.  Kamil Kreps has had a disappointing career.  Drafted in the 2^nd round of 2003, his highest goal total for a season is 8.  While the Panthers probably (hopefully) were never projecting him as an offensive forward, he’s never really looked like anything more than a 4^th line grinder.

The Draft: 1st round, 3^rd overall.  Three 2^nd round picks, two 4^th round picks, and a 5^th round pick.

The Panthers were able to unload a couple of upcoming free agents at the deadline in Dominic Moore, Jordan Leopold, and Dennis Seidenberg (all 3 of whom happen to be playing playoff hockey right now), and as a result have a nice handful of draft picks to use as they see fit.  Assuming that Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin go 1-2 in some order, the Panthers will be faced with a decision to draft a forward who might help their anemic offense or the highest ranked player talent-wise left on the board at #3, which would be a defenseman.

There are certainly logical explanations for both sides.  The Panthers’ offense suffered horribly this season.  I’m under the assumption that when healthy, David Booth, Stephen Weiss, and Nathan Horton are a solid scoring line.  Unfortunately, they rarely had a chance to play together, and the secondary scoring was non-existent.  And that’s where the problem lies.  After the Cats’ top 3 forwards, there really isn’t anyone left that can contribute consistently.  Michael Frolik had a strong follow-up to his rookie season, throwing in 22 goals with 21 assists.  After that?  Steven Reinprecht?  He went through a 14 game streak without a single point, and scored just 4 goals in the 2010 calendar year.  Radek Dvorak?  Cory Stillman?  Their best scoring days are well behind them.  Drafting whichever forward is leftover at #3 might be the best way to go, even if it means he spends a season in AHL Rochester.

But what about Cam Fowler?  Imagine adding him to the youthful mix of talent the Panthers have on their blue line already.  2009 1^st round draft pick Dmitry Kulikov made the roster out of training camp and played 68 games as a rookie.  Jason Garrison and Keaton Ellerby will be fighting for a starting job next season, and both should make the team.  Throw in Cam Fowler, and you have a depth on defense for the foreseeable future.  Prospect Shawn Matthias finally made the jump to the big club and chipped in nicely this season.  Michael Repik and Evgeny Dadonov had solid seasons in Rochester and could provide that secondary scoring next season at the NHL level.  Taking the talent that’s there over the franchise’s immediate need and stocking up the blue line might be the best way to go.

Trade Bait:  Tomas Vokoun will be one of the most talked about names this offseason, and rightly so.  He was nearly dealt at the trade

Tomas Vokoun will be on the block this summer (photo: Rabbethan \ WikiCommons)

deadline in March, and should draw a lot of interest.  He will be an unrestricted free agent come summer 2011, and Florida will surely be outbid if Vokoun is still employed by the Panthers.  He is expendable for a number of reasons, the least of which is the money.  But the Panthers also have Scott Clemmensen under contract for 2 more years at $1+ million.  Tyler Plante and Alex Salak have both shown flashes of NHL material in Rochester this season.  And perhaps most important is last seaon’s 2^nd round draft pick Jakob Markstrom.  Markstrom has been playing in the Swedish Elite League the past 2 seasons as a teenager, and should cross the pond for next season.  I think he’ll push for the backup role out of camp, and should be the goalie of the future (think DiPietro\Luongo coming out of juniors, and I don’t think I’m stretching too far).

Vokoun should bring back an exceptional return, be it more draft picks, or more likely (hopefully) warm, talented, scoring players.  What the Panthers might not be able to find in immediate scoring help in the draft itself could come via a trade.

So is there optimism in Pantherland?  ….ehhh…. I think the pieces are in place for this franchise to be successful.  Eventually.  The duo of GM Randy Sexton and head coach Pete DeBoer should be given one more chance to get this team back on the winning side.  Sexton did a good job of getting value back for the free agents he was going to lose in the offseason.  The draft will make-or-break him.  Pete DeBoer hasn’t exactly been given a helping hand in the talent on the roster, but I don’t think he’s handled some tough situations well.  Whether it be the appearance of personal issues getting in the way of the product on the ice (see Nick Boynton and Ville Koistinen) or an air of favoritism in the AHL players he calls up (some point to the fact that, coincidentally, many played for him when he coached the OHL Kitchener Rangers), DeBoer needs a strong start next season.  His first two seasons behind the Panthers bench have seen his team finish October either in the cellar or fighting escape it.

But there is reason to hope.  Young talent is on the way.  Trades should bring in bona fide scoring help.  It’s all a matter of putting it all together on the ice come October.  Whether it’s October 2010, or October 2012 remains to be seen…

• Bio
• Latest Posts

Karl Selvig

Karl Selvig was born and raised in south Florida, and was introduced to hockey when the NHL came to Miami in 1993. It was love at first sight. After playing through college, he turned to the media side of the sport and has enjoyed writing about his beloved Panthers since 2007.

Latest posts by Karl Selvig (see all)

• Panthers Should Just Say No To Luongo - June 27, 2012
• Two Summer Decisions That Will Impact Florida’s Future - May 29, 2012
• Kevin Dineen More Deserving Than John Tortorella - April 30, 2012