Impact: The Dion Phaneuf trade to Toronto

Dion Phaneuf heads to Toronto as Calgary hopes his departure and four new Flames right their sinking ship (Steve Victoria/Flickr).

Retrospective: Phaneuf’s Greatest Hits

The Swap:

Toronto acquires Dion Phaneuf, Fredrik Sjostrom and Keith Aulie

Calgary receives Niklas Hagman, Matt Stajan, Ian White and Jamal Mayers

The Timing:

Trade rumors have surrounded Phaneuf for some time, his scoring production has dropped in consecutive seasons and he skated at a substandard -11 on a playoff team last season.  Murmurs about locker room problems brought Phaneuf to the mind of many fans, especially when he was reportedly involved in a shouting match with head coach Brent Sutter early in the season.  Sutter, the brother of general manager and former head coach Darryl Sutter, coached Phaneuf as a junior in Red Deer and was expected to help recapture the form of the former first-team All-Star selection.

Following a vehement Darryl Sutter denial of Phaneuf’s being shopped, the Flames entered a tailspin which brought them to the verge of a franchise-record losing streak.  Seven games into the skid, Sutter again denied any strong possibility that there would be any significant trade.

Yet today it becomes apparent that Sutter was likely posturing or negotiating, as trade talks between Calgary and Toronto have been ongoing for at least a week (right around the time Sutter berated reporters inquiring about rumors).

Strangely, the Flames had recorded their first victory in ten games on the eve of the trade as part of a three-game point streak (it was preceded by two shootout losses) and Phaneuf scored goals in two of the three games.

The Players:

Dion Phaneuf, the centerpiece of the trade, may have had his moments of underperformance and wrecklessness in the past two seasons but his overall production in five seasons in Calgary has been the stuff of an elite defenseman.

He recorded 159 points, 373 penalty minutes and +27 rating in his first three seasons.  Over the full nearly five-season span, he leads all defenseman in goals, shots on goal, power play goals and game-winning goals.  His power-play goal and game-winning goal totals are the best in NHL history for a player with his experience. Only Paul Coffey scored more power-play goals and only Dennis Potvin has as many game-winning goals through five seasons of play and Phaneuf has not completed his fifth campaign.  Phaneuf’s defensive game compares favorably to Coffey’s and at its best has been on par with Potvin’s, rarified air for any rear guard.

Keith Aulie is an imposing defensive prospect who stands 6’5″ and has already bulked up to over 200 pounds.  He posted career highs in goals, assists, points and penalty minutes last season for the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings and represented Canada at the World Juniors Championships. He posted 9 points in 12 WHL playoff games and was a physical force in Canada’s gold medal run. Aulie has appeared in 43 games for the Flames’ AHL affiliate, the Abbotsford Heat, this season.   He projects as a defensive defenseman with tremendous size and solid instincts, likely a top four defender.

Fredrik Sjostrom, a former Calgary Hitmen forward, has now cemented his status as a journeyman.  Toronto is his fourth team in three seasons.  Though he once posted 77 points in 63 games as a junior with the Hitmen, Sjostrom has topped 20 points only once in six NHL seasons and seems destined to be a supplemental forward for as long as his NHL career lasts.

Niklas Hagman is a 30-year-old Finn who has proven a bit of a late bloomer.  He has posted three consecutive 20-goal seasons and in his season and a half in Toronto he has posted his best goals-per-game numbers scoring 42 times in 120 games.  He becomes the Calgary’s only 20-goal scorer to date besides Jarome Iginla, moving from a team starving for forward depth to another one that is at least very hungry for it.  Hagman is most comfortable at left wing and is almost sure to be the latest in a line of forwards to see time on the first line along side Olli Jokinen and Jarome Iginla in the immediate future. The Flames have auditioned nearly all of their forwards for the first-line left wing role this season, including call-ups like Jamie Lundmark.  Hagman can also kill penalties, he is a speedy forward with a sharp defensive mind similar to Curtis Glencross.

Matt Stajan, a second-round pick of the Leafs who spent all five seasons of his career with Toronto coming into this campaign, is a playmaking forward.  He dished out a career-high 40 assists last season and joins the Flames with the second-highest point total on the Calgary roster with 41 points on the year.  Stajan is a center by trade but has spent a bit of time on the wing. Immediately, he may fit as a third-line center behind Jokinen and Daymond Langkow or as a second-line left wing who can spur some scoring with his deft passing and slick puckhandling.

Ian White may be the key to this deal.  While the signing of fluid-skating Jay Bouwmeester and the emergence of two-way standout Mark Giordano have made Phaneuf’s salary and defensive ability seem superfluous, Phaneuf’s offense has still been relatively strong at even strength and on the power play.  White is a more affordable option on the blue line who may very well replace Phaneuf’s offensive production.  Though he may not possess the blistering shot or high ceiling of Phaneuf, White has notched 26 points to date, four more than Phaneuf.  He will easily top his previous career high as he twice recorded 26 points, last season and in ’06-’07.  White is a capable power-play quarterback with good speed and solid puck-moving skills in all three zones. He was leading the Leafs in minutes played at the time of the trade.

Jamal Mayers turned 35 earlier this season and the Toronto native was open about his dissatisfaction playing for his hometown club.  Mayers is a gritty forward who has typically scored in the 20-point range and hovered around 100 PIM in his career.  He gives the Flames a bit of additional grit but seems unlikely to remain in Calgary beyond this season as he is an unrestricted free agent this Summer.

The Numbers:

Phaneuf is set to earn an average salary of $6.5 million through the ’13-’14 season and Sjostrom is signed through next season at $750,000.  Aulie signed a three-year entry level contract last season.

Hagman makes $3 million a year through the ’11-’12 season.  Stajan is set to make $1.750 million this year and like Mayers, who will earn $1.4 million this season, is in the final year of his contract.  White is owed $950,000 for this season and will become a restricted free agent this Summer.

Calgary’s bottom line for this season changes negligibly but their long-term outlook has now become considerably more flexible.  With Darryl Sutter expressing some desire to re-sign forwards Olli Jokinen and Rene Bourque as well as the emergent Giordano, the Flames now have short-term options as well as the potential to dabble in free agency in the coming off-seasons with the $6.5 million they had committed to Phaneuf.

The Questions:

Are Hagman and Stajan really any better than the current second-tier forwards Calgary already has?

These are veteran players, not guys who are poised to break out, and they were already getting all the ice time they deserved and more with the Maple Leafs.  Toronto, who also dealt Jason Blake in a separate trade, was razor-thin up front.  With the inconsistency and mixed offensive form of wingers like Rene Bourque and Nigel Dawes, similar caliber players seem unlikely to bring out the best in the Flames’ offense.

On the flip side, the new acquisitions may very well be split between the top two lines or used to create a formidable new second line.  They may not excite fans like Kovalchuk, Lecavalier and other marquee names rumored to be in play do, but they might still help Calgary’s anemic offense score goals.  The Flames have scored two goals or fewer in more than half their games, stemming that tide may be a task too difficult for any one player to accomplish.

Where does Darryl Sutter go from here?

The Flames are right up against the cap as this deal did not cut down their team salary, but a forward with the ability to score ugly goals still has to top Calgary’s wish list.  Their inabilities to finish chances near the net and score on the power play have become all too apparent lately and if Sutter can squeeze a grinder with soft hands out of the budget somehow this deal might nicely round out the Flames’ top nine forwards.

It’s quite possible, however, that this current Flames roster is what Calgary fans will see in the playoffs.  With a little over $1 million in cap space remaining, it seems prudent to stay pat in the event of an injury or other unforeseen issue that prompts an emergency signing.

How do the new players figure into the Flames’ future?

Hagman is in the fold for a couple more seasons and presumably White will be back after this year.  If that is not the case, many fans will wonder why an effective salary dump of Phaneuf was not used to rent a big name like Kovalchuk or another unrestricted free agent to be.  Stajan may also return depending on his performance down the stretch.

Hagman is a fairly gifted scorer, a good skater and a guy who can help Calgary in an area where they have struggled, the shootout.  White figures to be part of the remade top-four defense along with Bouwmeester, Robin Regehr and Giordano.  Stajan was also a regular in the shootout.

Will there be any addition-by-subtraction effect?

Phaneuf was arguably the most talented all-around blue-liner in the league but he was neither the most productive nor the most consistent one, especially during his last 140 or so games in a Calgary uniform.  Was he a young player looking to find his way or a self-involved, moody locker room cancer?

This losing streak has had the hallmarks of a team eager to tune out its coach and abandon the team concept.  Thus the departure of one of its top individual players who was criticized for putting himself before the team signals that these tendencies are unacceptable regardless of one’s talents.  His teammates’ reaction will be telling.  If they respond by going to the net, supporting the puck and sacrificing their bodies, then moving a nearly singular talent will have been well worth the risk.  Conversely, if his teammates view this deal as sacrificing potential dominance to send a message everyone’s job is in jeopardy if they don’t win immediately, the deal could prove a disaster.  The Flames have held their twigs tonight during the losing streak and a reversal of the confidence from the management and coaching staff could exacerbate that problem amid an air-tight playoff race.