Guest post by Eldon MacDonald (edited by @ChrisRalphTHW)
Potential Montreal Canadiens Draft Picks
The purpose of this article is to shed some light on what the Montreal Canadiens might be looking for in the upcoming 2013 NHL Draft in New Jersey and to provide some idea as to who may be available and picked with each draft selection. Even if you don’t agree with all of the suggestions, this article should be able to provide you with most of the information needed to make your own list of hopeful selections. To give the reader a fairly wide range of information, we have provided the following:
- Major Needs
- Likely Draft Positions and Potential Picks
- The Major Team Decision Makers
- The Big Club – Current Roster
- Top 10 Prospects
- The Last Three Drafts
The reader should be aware that the suggested picks may or may not be available at the team’s turn at the draft. They are indicative, however, indicative of the types of players that will be available and the types of choices that Marc Bergevin and crew will have to make come June 30th in New Jersey.
Other Posts in This Series (War Room Final Rankings – Top 120)
- Round 1 – Prospects ranked 1 to 30
- Round 2 – Prospects ranked 31 to 60
- Round 3 – Prospects ranked 61 to 90
- Round 4 – Prospects ranked 91 to 120
You can use these posts to get more information on players ranked 1 through 120 including the following on most prospects:
- Unique Nicknames
1 – Top six forward with size – There is an opportunity for the Habs management to change the face of the team with this draft and add to an already impressive group of prospects after last year’s great haul in the draft. All three of the Habs first three picks (25, 34, 36) will provide the same quality as found in the first round of most drafts. In addition, picks 55 and 71 still bring prospects with the potential to be a top six forward or top 4 defenseman. Since top six forwards are harder to obtain than top four defensemen because their progression to being an impact player is shorter and more predictable, the Habs should target a decent-sized forward in the first round unless a defenseman falls that the club has rated much higher like Nathan Beaulieu did in the 2011 draft.
2 – Shutdown defenseman with size – The Habs have Jarred Tinordi for size and hopefully physicality and PK loves to go up against the top players. However, a large – sized defenseman who can skate would make the Habs that much harder to play against. Hopefully, the Habs will take one of the following with an early 2nd round pick: Steve Santini, Ian McCoshen or Dillon Heatherington. There are still excellent prospects with size likely available for the Habs late 2nd and early 3rd picks such as Linus Arnesson, Micheal Downing, Gustav Olofsson, Carl Dahlstrom and Mitchell Wheaton.
— The Montreal Gazette (@mtlgazette) May 23, 2013
3 – Gritty forward – A gritty third line forward, especially a centre, would be a nice compliment to the current lineup and. Look at what Brandon Prust did for this lineup. Candidates include:
1st round – Ryan Hartman
2nd round – likely early 2nd, JT Compher
2nd round, could last to late 2nd – Marko Dano
3rd-4th – Matt Buckles, if the team thinks they can help with the development especially in terms of helping improve his skating.
3rd-4th– Kurt Etchegary
3rd – 5th – Vincent Dunn
3rd – 4th – Jackson Houck
4 – Goalie – Since there are no goalies in the Canadiens top ten prospects, it might be time to take a goalie. There should be goalies with decent potential going into at least the fifth round. Some of the goalies such as Eric Comrie, Tristan Jarry, Spencer Martin, Philippe Desrosiers and Marcus Högberg could be available with the Habs late second or early third round picks. If that group goes early, there are also late round picks with potential, my personal favouite being Patrik Bartosak. Other options include Brendan Burke, Evan Cowley and Antoine Bibeau.
— Don Macpherson (@DMacpGaz) June 1, 2013
5– Best player available (BPA) – Best player available is always a good draft strategy. However, when there are many players of similar value, it is usually the one who has the qualities your team values the most that comes out on top.
Habs Eyes On The Prize >> NHL Draft 2013: Who Will Be Available for the Canadiens' First Round Pick? http://t.co/WkQ34opkTB
— Montreal Canadiens (@habsbuzztap) May 28, 2013
Likely Draft Positions and Potential Picks
The draft is approaching and with it comes the return of our "Pick the Pick" contest. Play here –> http://t.co/YYq7nmK4ey
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) June 17, 2013
Round 1: pick 25 (The numbers in brackets are the War Room rankings)- Historical success rate = 76%
- Preference 1 – Frederik Gauthier (#14)
- Preference 2 – Curtis Lazar (#19)
- Preference 3 – Adam Erne (#21)
- Preference 4 – Valentin Zykov(#22)
- Preference 5 – Kerby Rychel (#25)
- Preference 6 – Ryan Hartman (#26)
- Preference 7 – Morgan Klimchuk (#32)
What types of players can we hope to draft 25th overall? These –>> http://t.co/PdvcPxUjhY
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) June 21, 2013
Potentially available at 20 ending at 30 are: Anthony Mantha, Adam Erne, Valentin Zykov, Andre Burakowky, Steve Santini, Kerby Rychel, Ryan Hartman, Madison Bowey, Mirco Mueller, Laurent Dauphin and Jacob de la Rose. Note: TSN’s Bob MacKenzie has Frederik Gauthier at 22 and Josh Morrissey at 28 so they are potentially there as well.
Yes, I suspect Frederik Gauthier and Curtis Lazar will be long gone at 24. However, there is always a long-shot possibility that they will be close enough that the team decides to trade up for them (like they did for Jarred Tinordi in 2010).
As an alternative, Adam Erne is a nice choice with speed, size and willingness to be involved in the play; however, his ceiling is more as a moderate second line scorer. Valentin Zykov has a higher ceiling, first line, and could be the steal of the draft but there are always more uncertainties in drafting a Russian.
Two OHL players, Kerby Rychel and Ryan Hartman are also potential picks. Kerby is the scorer of the two and can be very prolific if supplied with a feed-me type centre. Ryan Hartman, a personal favourite of mine, will make whatever team that drafts him very happy campers. Hartman’s ceiling, however, may be only gritty third line winger or centre.
Morgan Klimchuk, I have added because some scouts rate him much higher than I do. He has an excellent shot and can score goals but is of modest size.
Josh Morrissey, 28th on Bob MacKenzie’s list, is a modest sized Duncan Keith type d-man with great skating, great compete and oodles of talent – best player available is never a bad choice and Morrissey may be just that – just a consideration.
For an alternative perspective see who the Canadiens virtually drafted:
Round 2: Pick 34 – Historical success rate = 33%
Round 2: Pick 36 – Historical success rate = 33%
- Preference 1 – Justin Bailey (#37)
- Preference 2 –William Carrier (#39)
- Preference 3 –Michael McCarron (#41)
- Preference 4 – Jacob De La Rose (#30)
- Preference 1 – Steve Santini (#24)
- Preference 2 –Robert Hagg (#33)
- Preference 3 – Ian McCoshen (#36)
- Preference 4 – Dillon Heatherington (#43)
— Kearney Erhard (@KearneyErhard) June 25, 2013
Potential picks in the 30 to 46 range are: Jacob de la Rose, Chris Bigras, Morgan Klimchuk, Robert Hagg, Shea Theodore, Zachary Fucale, Ian McCoshen, Justin Bailey, JT Compher, William Carrier, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael McCarron, Jimmy Lodge, Dillon Heatherington, Anthony Duclair, Eric Comrie and Nick Petan. I have also added Steve Santini from 24 as Bob MacKenzie has him at 42.
It is no secret that I am a big-time fan of both Steve Santini, the Team USA defender who gave a clinic on shutdown D at the U18’s, and Justin Bailey, the elegant right-handed Jean Beliveau type, who has shown more promise than results to date. However, I would be happy with all the other preferences as well since they all bring both size and talent.
Not mentioned above but lurking in the background is a strong list of potential second or third round goalies including Eric Comrie (45), Tristan Jarry (48), Spencer Martin (59) and Philippe Desrosiers (61).
Round 2: Pick 55 – Historical success rate = 24%
- Preference 1 – Marko Dano (#50)
- Preference 2 – Zack Nastasiuk (#53)
- Preference 3 – John Hayden (#56)
- Preference 4 – Connor Hurley (#58)
- Preference 1 – Linus Arnesson (#63)
- Preference 2 –Brett Pecse (#60)
- Preference 3 – Michael Downing (#67))
- Preference 4 –Jonathan-Ismael Diaby (#51)
— The Cannon (@cbjcannon) June 24, 2013
Potentially available starting at 50 and ending at 63 are: Marko Dano, Jonathan Ismael-Diaby, Adam Tambellini, Zach Nastasiuk, Jason Dickinson, Jordan Subban, John Hayden, Hudson Fasching, Connor Hurley, Spencer Martin, Brett Pesce, Phillipe Desrosiers, Eric Roy and Linus Arnesson.
Personally, I prefer the forwards in this group. Marko Dano or Zach Nastasiuk would add greatly to that third line need for grit with a healthy dash of skill. John Hayden, a 6’3, 210 lb. centre, is still in development stage but has shown enough potential a team is likely to jump on him earlier than projected (61 on Bob MacKenzie’s rankings). Connor Hurley is a US high schooler with loads of potential.
Linus Arnesson is probably the best shutdown guy in the D-group. However, Brett Pesce and Micheal Downing are good choices in their own right. Jonathan-Ismael Diaby is the player that Habs management should probably consider first of all in this group if they feel that his toolbox issues are overstated or easy fixable. Real size, 6’5, 231 lb., can fight, can skate, can make plays but his decision making has been questioned by some.
Goalie candidates again include Spencer Martin (59), Philippe Desrosiers (61) and Marcus Högberg (ranked in the 75-79 range by Bob MacKenzie).
Round 3: Pick 71 – Historical success rate = 24%
- Preference 1 – Pavel Buchnevich (#69)
- Preference 2 – Michael Downing (#67)
- Preference 3 – Gustav Olofsson (#70)
- Preference 4 – Yan PavelLaplante (#71)
- Preference 5 – Matt Buckles (#75)
Potentially available starting at 67 and ending at 77 are: Michael Downing, Jan Kostalek, PavelBuchnevich, Gustav Olofsson, Yan Pavel Laplante, Mitchell Wheaton, Emile Poirier, Myles Bell, Matt Buckles, Ryan Fitzgerald and BogdanYakimov.
Well, the best player available in this group skill-set wise is definitely Russian forward Pavel Buchnevich. If you don’t like the drama associated with picking Russians, there are two excellent defensemen in Michael Downing and Olofsson (rated 58 and 63 in MacKenzie’s rankings). If the two D’s are gone, you might want to consider double gold medal winner (Ivan Hlinka and the World U18’s) Yan Pavel Laplante, who is a third line energy winger type like Michael Bournival. Matt Buckles, a 6’2, 210 lb. power centre who could use a little help with his skating is yet another option. Emile Poirier is a player I have under-ranked compared to the consensus so is likely to be gone.
Round 3: Pick 86 – Historical success rate = 24%
Type A – Potential Top Six Forwards
- Preference 1 – Tyler Motte (#84)
- Preference 2 – Roberts Lipsbergs (#85)
- Preference 3 – Victor Crus Rydberg (#86)
- Preference 4 – Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau (#87)
- Preference 5 – Jusso Ikonen (#89)
- Preference 6 – Peter Cehlárik (#91)
Type B – Big Boy Forwards
- Preference 1 – Nick Moutrey (#81)
- Preference 2 – Ryan Kujawinski (#82)
Type C – Gritty or Energy Forwards – Bottom Six
- Preference 1 – Kurt Etchegary (#83)
- Preference 2 – Vincent Dunn (#88)
Potentially available starting at 81 and ending at 92 are: Nick Moutrey, Ryan Kujawinski, Kurt Etchegary, Tyler Motte, Roberts Lipsbergs, Victor Crus Rydberg, Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau, Vincent Dunn, Juuso Ikonen, Matt Murphy, Peter Cehlárik and Carl Dahlström.
Yes, I have thrown in the kitchen sink and listed all the forwards in the 81-92 range. It all depends on what you want type of forward you want to fill your prospect cupboard.
- Top 6 forward potential – Motte, Lipsbergs, Rydberg, Paquin-Boudreau, Ikonen and Cehlárik– All are maybes but I am betting one or more of the maybes morphs into a yes. These are exciting players for this late in the draft.
- Big man forward – Moutrey, Kujawinski – Both were under achievers this year but it is too early to write them off just yet as the potential is definitely still there.
- Fill the need – 3rd line gritty centre – Etchegary, Dunn – Dunn is the more in your face of the two but tailed off a bit at season’s end. Etchegary is more a grinder and he has had injury problems.
Round 6: Pick 176 – Historical success rate = 9%
Round 7: Pick 206 – Historical success rate = 10%
- Me 97 – NHL 211 – Peter Trainor (3rd time available)
- Me 109 – NHL unranked – Jesse Lees
- Me 114 – NHL 230 – Miro Aaltonen(3rd time available)
- Me 119 – NHL >290 – Markus Søberg
- Me 124 – NHL 200 – Marcus Högberg
- Me 135 – NHL 216 – Evan Allen
- Me 136 – NHL 289 – Joose Antonen
- Me 140 – NHL unranked – Scott Oke–(3rd time available)
- Me unranked – NHL unranked – Albert Yarullin (3rd time available)
- Me unranked – NHL unranked – Mitchell Theoret (re-entry prospect)
- Me unranked – NHL unranked – Brenden Kichton(re-entry prospect)
It is virtually impossible to tell who might be available from 176 on so what I did was list those personnel who I have ranked in the 3rd and 4th rounds and the 5th round up to 145 which the NHL has ranked 176 or greater that still have a decent chance of still being available. As this is as good time as any to make sure you take the best player available, I have listed the prospects in ranking order.
I have also added Albert Yarullin who has a big shot on the power play, Mitchell Theoret (6’2, 212) who looked very good for Barrie in the OHL playoffs and Brenden Kichton, a power-play quarterback with Spokane.
Oh, there is always a Trevor Timmins sleeper pick, like Liam Coughlin, a 6’3, 210 lb. centre from a US high school.
You don't see this often, director of scouting of an NHL team saying x player he's his sleeper pick for the draft http://t.co/q5RIrZjdGJ
— Jérôme Bérubé (@Jerome_Berube) June 6, 2013
The Major Team Decision Makers
1 –Executive VP & General Manager – Marc Bergevin
2 – Assistant General Manager –Rick Dudley
3 –Assistant General Manager – Larry Carriere
4 – Director of Amateur Scouting – Trevor Timmins
5 – Director of Player Personnel – Scott Mellanby
6 – Scouting Coordinator – Ken Morin
7 – Coach – Michael Therrien
— Mark Edwards (@MarkEdwardsHP) May 31, 2013
The Big Club – Current Roster
(As Found On The Team’s Website)
Alex Galchenyuk C/LW
Danny Kristo LW/RW
Michael Bournival C/LW
D. Thrower/M Nygren
Morgan Ellis/ D. Dietz
*I have considered the players listed below still to be prospects even though they are listed on the roster at the team’s website. Most were brought up to act as “The Black Aces” during the playoffs.
Goal – Dustin Tokarski
Goal – Robert Mayer
Defense – Greg Pateryn
Defense – Nathan Beaulieu
Forward – Louis Leblanc
Forward – Michael Bournival
*Take one last look at the above roster before the craziness of summer begins – Snapshot from June 27, 2013.
Top 10 Prospects – Draft War Room Edition
1 – 2011 – 017 – Nathan Beaulieu
2 –2008 – 056 – Danny Kristo
3 – 2012 – 033 – Sebastian Collberg
4 – 2009 – 018 – Louis Leblanc
5– 2011 – 113 – Magnus Nygren
6 – 2012 – 122 – Charles Hudon
7 – 2012 – 064 – Tim Bozon
8 – 2010 – 071 – Michael Bournival (Drafted by the Colorado Avalanche)
9 –2010 – 117 – Morgan Ellis
10– 2009 – 079 – Mac Bennett
— HabsWorld.net (@habsworld_net) June 22, 2013
— The Montreal Gazette (@mtlgazette) May 21, 2013
The Last Three Drafts
(As Per 2013 NHL Official Guide and Record Book)
|003 Alex Galchenyuk||017 Nathan Beaulieu||022 Jarred Tinordi|
|033 Sebastian Collberg||097 Joseph Didier||113 Mark MacMillan|
|051 Dalton Thrower||108 Olivier Archambault||117 Morgan Ellis|
|064 Tim Bozon||113 Magnus Nygren||147 Brendan Gallagher|
|094 Brady Vail||138 Darren Dietz||207 John Westin|
|122 Charles Hudon||168 Daniel Pribyl|
|154 Erik Nystrom||198 Colin Sullivan|
Check out our Top 10- Habs NHL draft steals. ->> http://t.co/OQldKxRp6h
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) June 25, 2013
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