The Philadelphia Flyers defeated the Canadiens 1-0 in a shootout on Feb. 26 and pulled into the lead of the Metropolitan Division with 78 points. With that, a team that lost 10-games in a row back in November and December had climbed from the bottom all the way to the top. Now, after a 1-6-1 stretch to begin March, which includes losing four out of their last five home games, it has come down to the wire for the Orange and Black, and all you can ask for is a shot. Here is a break down of the Flyers’ last 11 games of the season.
The Opponents’ Facts
The nine teams (they play the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers twice) have a combined point percentage of 0.560 and a combined record of 320-243-75. Six of their last 11 games will be played on the road. This will include a mini three-game road trip at the end of March that features games in Pittsburgh, Dallas and Colorado, with the last two being played on back-to-back nights. That is one of the two back-to-backs left this season and so far they are 7-4-2 in the second game. They are also 5-1-1 in the second game of back-to-backs when both games are on the road.
The six teams they face in their home building have a combined home point percentage of 0.623 and have outscored their opponents 656 to 594. No surprise that the Pittsburgh Penguins have the best remaining home record with 26 wins and a point percentage of 0.735.
The surprising Colorado Avalanche have been hard to beat at home, winning 24 games and earning a point percentage of 0.714. The Flyers are 4-8-8 in their last 20 trips to the Pepsi Center but have won two straight.
The Detroit Red Wings have not had much success in their new barn, Little Caesars Arena, winning only 26 games and achieving a point percentage of 0.450.
Switching to the Wells Fargo Center, a place the Flyers are 17-13-6 this season. They have two home games with the Rangers, who have a combined 0.507 road point percentage as a result of being outscored 436 to 388. The Blueshirts will have a say, though, if the Flyers make it to the postseason. Philadelphia is 10-7-3 in their last 20 games played at home vs the Rangers, and 0-2-2 in the last four against them.
Flyers Head-To-Head Battle
The Orange and Black have an 8-7-4 head-to-head record with these nine opponents in prior matchups this season or a point percentage of 0.526. This record is inflated by their combined 0-4-1 record against Pittsburgh and Boston, two of the top tier teams in the NHL. They have been outscored by these teams 67-59 but, again, 21 of those goals have come in the five matchups with the Penguins and Bruins.
The Hurricanes, like the Rangers, could be a big roadblock for the Flyers journey to the postseason with two games remaining. Even though Philadelphia is 12-6-2 in the last 20 in Raleigh and 13-4-3 in the last 20 at home, the Canes have twice the chance of knocking them out of the playoffs.
According to Sports Club Stats, the Flyers have an 80.4% chance of making the playoffs and that moves to 100% if they achieve 97 points with an 8-3-0 record. You can figure it is possible to get half of those wins by beating the Hurricanes and Rangers twice. Add another victory against the Red Wings to make five total, and that puts them at needing a .500 record in the games against the Penguins, Stars, Avalanche, Capitals, Bruins, and Islanders to clinch a playoff berth.
