Sharks-Wild: Game Preview

The San Jose Sharks host the Minnesota Wild tonight at 7:30pm PST in the Shark Tank. Both teams will be looking to restore their standing in the Western Conference. This is San Jose’s second and last game of the brief three-day homestand, and it is Minnesota’s fourth game of a six game road trip that started a week ago.

In San Jose’s case, on paper at least, only have to restore their standing as the best team in the West because of the most illogical, convoluted system the NHL uses to determine first place in conjunction with the most ridiculous scheduling of any sport. The Sharks have one point fewer than the Detroit Red Wings, but have played three games fewer, which leads to two obvious questions from anyone with any rationality:

How is a team that is a game and a half back considered to be in first place?
How does a league have a team, especially in the same conference, who has played three more games when there are only five weeks left in the season? How is it fair to the Sharks to go into the playoffs having to play 17 percent more games than their competition?

Okay, that was three questions, but that last one was a follow-up.

Despite this, the Sharks have lost their status as the best team in the league on the ice of late. They are 6-5-4 in their last 15 games, including two of their four regulation losses at home. They have suffered two regulation losses in a row for the first time this season. They have scored just seven goals in their last five games. They have lost two more players to injury just after getting four players back.

The Wild, on the other hand, have lingered on the edge of the playoff picture all season. The official standings have them listed 11th now, three spots out of the playoffs; again, that is because of the insanity of the NHL. However, their point percentage (how every other sport determines standings, although they call it winning percentage because they don’t reward losses in overtime) still puts them on the outside looking in (ninth) after losing four in a row and going 2-5-2 in their last eight.

Whereas the Sharks made moves to shore up a team lacking in both fire and healthy forwards, the Wild did nothing. This despite the fact that their biggest scoring threat, Marian Gaborik, remains out with a hip injury. Minnesota has only one player with 50 points (Mikko Koivu), only two more with 40 points (Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Antti Miettinen), and only three more with 30 points (Owen Nolan—in 39 games, Marek Zidlicky, and Andrew Brunette).

But while Minnesota needs scoring, ranking 28th in the NHL, they do not need goaltending help. In fact, I had expected them to trade one of them for a scorer. Both Josh Harding and Niklas Backstrom have over a .920 save percentage and under a 2.30 GAA, and anchor the second best defence in the league.

Despite their struggles of late, the Sharks still rank fourth in scoring. In contrast to the Wild, they have three with 50+ (Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Devin Setoguchi), four more with 40+ (Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle, and Milan Michalek), and three more with 30+ (Rob Blake, Christian Ehrhoff, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic).

The Sharks are the fourth-best defensive teams in the league, as well. But it is not because of goaltending as much as controlling the puck, as they allow the fewest shots on goal. Evgeni Nabokov is expected to be back in net for the Sharks, and has a 2.48 GAA and .909 save percentage.

So this is not exactly the classic offence vs. defence match-up. But there is one great match-up to look at: these two teams are the best in the league on special teams. Minnesota ranks 9th in power play (20.9 percent) and the Sharks rank third (24.4); the Wild are first on penalty kill (88 percent) and San Jose is sixth (83.2) after struggling, giving up power play goals in 10 of their last 11 games. The sum of those figures favours the Wild, 108.9-107.6.

The breakdown:

Scheduling: advantage, Sharks (+3)
Offence: huge advantage, Sharks (+4)
Defence: slight advantage, Wild (-2)
Special teams: very slight advantage, Wild (-1)
Momemtum: very slight advantage, Sharks (+1)
Injuries: no advantage (four role-players for San Jose, one big one for Minnesota)
Intangibles: slight advantage, Sharks (+2)