Smart Money on Super Bowl XLIV

Christopher Ralph is a sportswriter with a focus on hockey prospects, the entry draft, as well as occasional Flames coverage here at THW.

Just over a year ago, I ventured outside of the realm of hockey to weigh in on the Super Bowl match-up between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals at my blog, The Hockey Spy.

Here’s an excerpt from my Super Bowl preview last year:

Vince Lombardi Trophy {Photo: From Author's Collection}

First off: Why is The Hockey Spy blogging about football in one of his first posts? Simple…The Hockey Spy also happens to be a football fanatic and on this upcoming Sports Holy Day, I cannot resist weighing in on the big game.

I recently read Michael Konik’s book “The Smart Money”, as Amazon.com states: “A riveting inside look at the lucrative world of professional high-stakes sports betting by a journalist who lived a secret life as a key operative in the world’s most successful sports gambling ring.”

Although the book does not reveal any betting secrets, after reading you cannot help but look at point spreads and over/under numbers differently.

While please don’t bet your house on any of my projections, last year my forecast was on the money.

- Arizona to cover the 7 pt spread – check!

- OVER the 46.5 pt total – check!

- I even stated the Steelers would win by 3 or 4 – try 4 pts – check!

- Finally, I actually picked the score of 27-23 Steelers

As for this year’s contest, I think the Saints cover the -5 point spread, but ultimately fall 31-27 to the Colts. Thus, the game goes OVER the 56.6 point total.
That’s where the Smart Money should go from my perspective, but of course they still have to play the game.

The bottom line for me is giving Peyton Manning two weeks to study and dissect what the Saints do on defense is going to make life miserable for the opposing secondary.

I am set on my projections, but I am left to wonder if the Saints will continue their magical season and find a way to miraculously pull this one out.

Freeney’s injury should have a huge impact and the Saints will have to take advantage if they hope to win the Holy Grail of American football. Reggie Wayne’s knee tweak yesterday seems to be fine as he practiced fully today, but it will be something to watch tomorrow.

MVP – hard to argue against the obvious choice in Manning, the NFL’s best student of the game ever to play!

If the Saints somehow defeat the favoured Colts, I’ll call Reggie Bush as the wildcard choice for MVP. He is definitely the x-factor in this game.

Here is where I tie this article into hockey! In following some of these elite athletes carefully, it’s hard not to compare them, no matter how remote the resemblance, to hockey players:

*Peyton Manning to Scott Niedermayer and/or Niklas Lidstrom: All three of these guys play the game so efficiently, they simply make it look effortless.

*Drew Brees to Sidney Crosby: Neither is the biggest at their position in their sport, but none have more passion. They both also possess elite vision on the field or ice and simply make those around them exponentially better.

Sidney Crosby: Comparable to Drew Brees? {Photo: Dustin Hall}

*Reggie Bush to Ilya Kovalchuk: The skills are undeniable, but sometimes the consistency is not always there. However, when either is on their game, they can carry a team and are ultimate offensive weapons.

*Darrin Sharper and Bob Sanders (when healthy) to Jonathon Toews and Jordan Staal: While the latter two do not possess the experience of the former two, they all exhibit two-way skills that are essential components to successful championship teams. They have game changing ability and can turn defense into offense in a heartbeat.

*Reggie Wayne to Patrick Marleau: Speed and hands! Wayne accepts passes from Manning with extreme efficiency, while Marleau does the same from Joe Thornton.

To end off this year’s Super Bowl preview, let’s take a look at the always intriguing prop bets:

*The coin toss is also a prop classic. The Hilton is supplying you with almost even money at -101 (risk $101 to win $100) for either heads or tails. But we all know metallic currency has a 50-50 shot of landing on one side or the other and history proves it.

- Heads or Tails

*Kim Kardashian, who boasts Saints all-purpose back Reggie Bush as her beau, has been given an appearance total of 2.5.

- Over or Under

*Will a member of The Who smash a guitar on stage during the halftime show? Books assume the band has mellowed in their later years with the answer of “YES” getting +155 odds, “NO” -200

- Yes or No

*Pete will almost certainly do his legendary ‘windmill’ move, and there is an Over / Under line on that as well. You can back over 5.5 windmills at -200, and under 5.5 at +160.

- Over or Under

To get a complete look at all prop bets for the game check out the following link – 17 pages worth!

http://www.sportsbook.com/sb_props_2010.pdf

One of my favourite Super Bowl quotes:

“If it’s the ultimate game, how come they’re playing it again next year?”  Super Bowl VI Cowboys RB Duane Thomas

Bring on the Super Bowl – fantastic food, beer, commercials, cheerleaders and sports on one of its greatest stages.