Wild Notes: Finally Playing Like Expansion Team

Wild fans have been spoiled. 

Well, okay, not spoiled maybe, but they can certainly be forgiven for getting lulled into a false sense of security that their team was a sum greater than the whole of its parts over their first eight seasons.  Thank ex-coach Jacques Lemaire for that.

All good things, they say, must come to an end.  For the Wild, the end of their opening run of “success” that belied their actual overall talent level was signaled by Lemaire’s resignation at the end of last season.  But, to those that complained about Lemaire hockey being stultifying, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side – or at least it takes some time for it to grow. 

Lemaire’s exit begat Risebrough’s exit, which begat Fletcher’s hiring, which begat Richards’ hiring, and here we are. 

The result has been tumultuous, to be sure.  A fractured training camp, a rough early schedule (8 of 11 on the road so far) and a rash of injuries to key players have all been big obstacles to overcome.  And the result, predictably, is that the Wild is finally playing like, well, like an expansion team. 

Lemaire garnered a record of 293-255-55-53 (0.446 winning percentage) with the Wild.  Yes, there were lean seasons (four 5th place finishes in the Northwest division.)  But there were also some very solid years – for what was supposed to be an expansion team – such as a division championship (07-08), and a 2nd place and two 3rd place finishes in the NW division.  The Wild has qualified for the NHL playoffs three times, including their flukey, magical run to the Western Conference Finals in 2003.

Another way to look at the Wild’s better-than-an-expansion-team performance through their first eight seasons is to compare them to their inaugural year cousins in Columbus.  During the same eight seasons, the Blue Jackets amassed a record of 247-325-33-51 (0.376 winning percentage.)  They have not finished higher than 3rd in the Central division, and have only qualified for the playoffs once, losing to the Red Wings in four games last season.

Okay, so how about standardizing the two teams’ relative performance versus the rest of the league?  One way to do this is to look at first round position in the NHL entry draft.  In other words, the better you did relative to the rest of the league, the lower your draft pick, and vice versa. 

Starting with the 2001 draft (one year of play for each team) the Blue Jackets’ first round picks have been #8, #1, #4, #8, #6, #6, #7, #6 and #21.  Average position of 7.55.  The Wild’s first round picks during those same years have been #6, #8, #20, #12, #4, #9, #16, #23 and #16.  Average position of 12.66.  In other words, Minnesota has been a lot stronger, relative to the rest of the league, than the Blue Jackets have been since inception.

Until now. 

Yes, the Wild is finally playing like an expansion team.  They even divested themselves of the last holdover from their inaugural roster (Gaborik.)  This isn’t about the virgin GM or the virgin head coach.  Neither is the problem, though both are symptomatic of it.  But it might not be a reach to say any Wild player would love to be a part of the good thing the Blue Jackets have going right now.

The question, then, is put to Wild fans: are you okay with your team finally playing like an expansion team?  Did eight seasons of being more competitive than they had any right to be deposit enough currency in your “good memory bank” to get you through this Depression the Wild seems destined to suffer through this season (at least)?  This is a team that is perilously short on offensive fire power, and, it turns out, frighteningly short on overall talent in the farm system.  Combine that reality with a paucity of available trades on the market (not to mention too few viable trading chips for GM Chuck Fletcher) and you’ve got a team that is going to struggle all season long. 

Yes, they’re still learning and acclimating to the new system.  And there have been bright spots (the Carolina game, in general, among them.)  But the new system won’t make the Koivus and Brunettes into 40 goal scorers, nor the Miettinens and Sheppards into 30 goal scorers, nor the Burnses and Zidlickys into 20 goal scorers.  No, you need those 40-, 30- and 20-goal scorers already on your roster. 

The Wild continues a week of built-in story lines when Greg Zanon faces off against his old mates from Nashville on Wednesday, then Marian Gaborik and the New York Rangers come to town Friday night (Gaby’s “lower body injury” notwithstanding) and finally Petr Sykora and Chuck Fletcher will receive their Stanley Cup rings in Pittsburgh Saturday night.

Nick in New York

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