Posted by Okay, first the scenarios:
Minnesota, Nashville, St. Louis and Anaheim are all still fighting for the 7th and 8th spots in the Western Conference. Edmonton, with their loss last night, is out.
The current standings are:
7. Anaheim 80 GP 41 W 88 Pts (remaining games: vs. Dallas, @ Phoenix)
8. St. Louis 80 GP 39 W 88 Pts (remaining games: vs. Columbus, @ Colorado)
9. Nashville 80 GP 39 W 86 Pts (remaining games: @ Detroit, @ Minnesota)
10. Minnesota 80 GP 38 W 85 Pts (remaining games: vs. Nashville, @ Columbus)
Obviously, any scenario where the Wild gets into the playoffs starts with them winning their final two games – preferably in regulation.
Anaheim need only garner one more point – they don’t even need a win – to make it impossible for Minnesota to over take them. The maximum number of points the Wild can get is 89, but the maximum number of wins the Wild can get is 40. So, with one more point the Ducks can’t do worse than a tie with the Wild for points, but they’d still own the wins tiebreaker. For all intents and purposes, the only chance the Wild has of catching Anaheim is if the Ducks lose both remaining games in regulation. Furthermore, one more win for the Ducks and they clinch a playoff spot because they would finish with 42 wins and 90 points at the worst. The best the Predators can finish with is 41 wins and 90 pts, so the Ducks would own the wins tiebreaker over the Preds.
If St. Louis wins one of their remaining games, it’s pretty much lights out for Minnesota because the Wild couldn’t finish with more wins, and the Blues have the head-to-head advantage in the season series (Minnesota went 1-3-0 against the Blues this season.) However, if the Blues go 0-1-1 in their remaining two games (again, assuming the Wild wins out) the Wild can catch them. The Blues would finish with 39 wins and 89 pts. The Wild would finish with 40 wins and 89 points and own the wins tiebreaker.
Nashville has the hardest schedule remaining (both on the road, in Detroit and in Minnesota, back-to-back and then they have to sit and watch at least the Wild on Saturday.) And, while everyone’s beat up to some extent right now, Nashville has a particularly nasty spate of injuries that they’re battling through. But they are battling indeed. The Wild is 1-2-0 against the Preds so far. So Friday’s game is obviously huge with a capital H. If Nashville loses in Detroit tomorrow, they still control the Wild in that a victory in St. Paul on Friday leaves them with 40 wins and 88 points; where as the Wild then could only finish with a best-case scenario of 87 pts (with a win over Columbus on Saturday.)
So, to recap, the Wild needs to win out, and can not afford to have the Ducks and Blues win a single game. If that happens, then the Wild can sit in 7th place. The Ducks clinch a spot with one more win. The Blues knock off the Wild with one more win. The Wild can still overtake Nashville if the Preds beat Detroit tomorrow.
But the Wild’s biggest obstacle may be themselves. This is a team that has not won back-to-back games since February 21-22 (vs. Detroit and @ Chicago.) They haven’t put together a three-game winning streak since November 13-18 (vs. Phoenix, vs. Columbus, @ Pittsburgh.) They’ve gone win-one, lose-one over their last 12 games (starting March 15th, they’ve gone loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-OTL-win-loss-win.) That’s Swiss watch-like consistency!
While Gaborik is back and scoring like he wants to break the bank this summer, PM Bouchard, Brent Burns and Nick Schultz are all out with concussion-like symptoms. The Wild is just too thin on skill to suggest they can pull off this unlikely feat. Yes, Backstrom will keep them in games, but they still have to score. And that’s where the trouble starts.
Their condition may be “grave,” but the Wild is still, technically, alive.
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