Working in the Offseason: Adding Scoring to the Predators’ Punch

Jason Arnott has gone on record as saying the Preds need to do something about their offense this season...

As the Nashville Predators enter the offseason, the biggest questions surrounding the team are up front.

‘Who’s staying and who’s going?’ is the first question many will ask. ‘What are they going to do about the lack of scoring?’ is another that will pass through some lips. Some may just settle for “Are the Predators going to seek outside help this offseason?” period.

The Alexander Radulov question will of course come up, but until any new information or developments become available, Radulov will be spending next season in the same place he spent this season. Mother Russia.

There’s no question though that where the Predators need to add help is up front. They were tied for fifth-last in the league in goals-per game this year, scoring just 207 goals all year. To put that in perspective, the Detroit Red Wings led the league, the Western Conference, and the Central division with 289 goals scored—an almost 80 goal differential.

Then again Columbus scored just 220 goals, but those 13 were the difference between playoff hockey and golfing. Or softball.

The lack of scoring depth was also felt on the power play, as not even Shea Weber and Ryan Suter could help the Preds stay out of the basement (26th) in the league’s extra-man rankings.

Many of the Preds’ younger forwards were saddled with the expectation of putting up some points at the NHL-level and being able to slide into a productive role.

Although they were given ample opportunity for this, many of the youngsters had a hard time sticking.

Mike Santorelli, Patric Hornqvist and Antti Pihlstrom were each expected to be able to contribute to the offense in some way this past season. Unfortunately, Santorelli’s game wasn’t productive at the NHL level (0 points in seven games), while Hornqvist bounced between the AHL and NHL after a little bit of early-season potential-flashing. Pihlstrom stuck around the longest out of the three (53 games) but even then, a scattered seven points is useless to a team lacking scoring.

Santorelli’s game may be better suited for the NHL now that he’s finished out his second AHL season, but we’ll have to wait until next year to find out. It’s also up to the Preds on how much of a role and responsibility they want to give Hornqvist and Pihlstrom (who is a restricted free agent) if their offensive games stay the way they are.

Of the “rookie forwards” three really stood out: Ryan Jones, Cal O’Reilly, and Joel Ward.

Jones, acquired in the Marek Zidlicky trade last July, put up 22 points in 25 AHL games, but he also provided the Preds with some good two-way play during his time in the NHL. The other impressive thing about Jones, is that he never went more than four games without registering a point. If the hard-nosed winger sees more time in the NHL next year, he could be a quality third or even second-liner for the Preds.

Cal O’Reilly only played 11 games for the Predators this season, but he certainly made everyone take notice. In his first seven games O’Reilly nabbed himself five points, and joined Vernon Fiddler as the only Preds with more goals than assists before going on a four-game scoreless streak. If O’Reilly is given an expanded role (between 15-18 minutes on the second line) next season, the Preds will be able to tell just how much he’s going to be able to contribute.

Joel Ward was a big surprise for the Preds. A Nashville assistant had known Ward for some time, so the Predators had been keeping tabs on the forward for a while, and gave the former Canadian University player a shot this year. Ward produced 35 points in 79 games for Nashville and led the forwards in blocked shots, but Ward really found his stride with 10 points in his last 13 games. An upcoming free agent, Ward is high on the priority list and the Preds are hoping he stays and that this is the start of something bright moving forward.

With some of the younger studs and duds from the past season out of the way, who’s for sure coming back for the Preds? Well, both Jason Arnott and David Legwand are. Arnott has been the goal-scoring threat for the Predators the last three seasons, scoring 88 goals in that timeframe. A concussion slowed his progress in March last season, but Arnott will be able to combine with J.P. Dumont (leading point-getter from this past season) to form a formidable combination next season, hopefully producing a thirty-goal season for each of them.

Legwand however, is a bit of a question. Not health-wise (a broken cheekbone kept him out of the last nine games of the regular season, although he is a bit injury prone), but what exactly he brings to the table offensively. In 2006/07 the former second overall pick netted a career-high 63 points, but since then he’s been back to potting 40 points a year. The former second round pick is running out of opportunities to prove he can handle the responsibility to prove he can consistently produce in a highlight offensive role, and if players like O’Reilly can really put up the points, Legwand may get passed over on the depth chart.

Speaking of injuries, the Preds still have Martin Erat, who missed the remainder of the season with a broken leg. Erat would have easily attained a third-straight 57 point season if he had remained healthy, so next year expect Erat to provide much of the same on the second line.

The lumbering Wade Belak will be back, as will gritty Jerred Smithson and Jordin Tootoo. All of them slide in to the agitating/body guard/policeman’s fourth line roles though, so unless Tootoo rediscovers his scoring touch from junior (Don’t bank on this) you won’t get much out of them.

As for free agents, the best the Preds could do would be to retain Steve Sullivan. After more than 150 games missed due to a back injury, many wondered if Sullivan could come back and be effective. Those fears were put to rest when Sully came back and put up 32 points in 41 games. Projected over 82 healthy games, Sullivan would have landed one point back of J.P. Dumont for the team lead.

Some teams might still be wary of a guy who missed so much time, but Sullivan’s mid-season comeback proved, if anything, that Nashville is a perfect fit for the pint-sized pepper pot.

His return isn’t a for sure thing though, as Sullivan will draw interest from teams looking for offensive depth around the league, but if Sullivan can star on the first or second line, the Nashville offense would have the weapon it so desperately needed with him out of the lineup this year.

Then again, a healthy month of March (the team lost Arnott, Erat, and Legwand for a few games while Dumont played banged up) would have gone a long way in helping the offense as well.

Vernon Fiddler produced his lowest NHL (17) point total since 2005/06 (12 in 50 games), but that’s not what Vern is kept around for. If he’s able to be retained at an affordable third-line contract he’ll keep providing the Preds with that  gutty forward they need: Fiddler was also second amongst forwards in shorthanded-time on ice, hird amongst forwards in blocked shots, and was big in the faceoff dot too.

Fiddler has displayed a yearning to stay in Nashville, but some wonder if there’s room, especially with the recent signing of another young playmaker in USA Hockey’s Colin Wilson, who’ll be gunning for a roster spot and opportunity to stut his offensive stuff out of camp.

Wilson should have a good opportunity to get his shot because unless the Preds are hell-bent on holding on to them, there’ll be some roster openings with the exodus of Radek Bonk and Scott Nichol.

Bonk brings a versatile presence to the team and experience in the face-off circle while Nichol brings the grit, but it seems the youth will be better served in their places.

Prospect-wise, the onus will be on O’Reilly and Wilson to prove they belong this year, with Santorelli (Mike) getting some more time to as well, while Nick Spaling may get a shot at cracking the roster too. If the Predators can start to get some production out of their younger guys and maybe get the wheels turning on Hornqvist and Pihlstrom, their offense will be in good shape as they await the arrival of Blake Geoffrion.

Brian Gionta could boost the scoring of the Nashville Predators for a fair price...

Free agent wise, the Predators will probably follow the same strategy they’ve always had: Be careful with their money and don’t over pay for too little. Looking at the free agent list, it is an old class, and if the Predators were to sink long-term years into a lot of these players, it’d be a bad investment, taking cap space and ice time away from players who could use that for development.

In a best case scenario, Brian Gionta would be an interesting pick up for the Preds. If he gets overlooked by the hype surrounding the Sedins, Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Tanguay, Marian Hossa, and Martin Havlat, Gionta could be affordable, and provide some goal-scoring ability on the Preds’ wing. Other options may include someone like Quintin Lang or even Mark Parrish or Maxim Afinogenov—two players who had putrid contract years and could be had at affordable, short-term deals to prove their worth.

Parrish would have to do a lot to prove that he’s worth that deal though.

Then again, a full year of a healthy Steve Sullivan could solve the Preds problems while the kids sort themselves out at the NHL level.

Projected 12 Forwards: Sullivan-Arnott-Dumont, O’Reilly-Legwand-Erat, Jones-Wilson-Ward, Smithson-Fiddler-Tootoo

Reserve: Belak

On the bubble: Mike Santorelli, Patric Hornqvist, Antti Pihlstrom

Possible Free Agent Additions: Brian Gionta, Maxim Afinogenov

Posted by Bryan Thiel on Jun 18 2009. Filed under Central, Nashville Predators, Western Conference. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.