It’s early days still, but the 2020 draft year is ramping up and prospects are getting up to speed.
They may not be in midseason form yet and some will come on stronger in the second half — and into playoffs — but there is enough of a sample size through approximately 10 games to highlight some risers and fallers.
Here are 10 prospects trending up from my preseason rankings — following the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in August — to my updated top 124 for October.
RELATED: 10 Fallers from Fisher’s Top 124 for October
1) Tim Stutzle (LW/LC, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 17
OCTOBER RANKING: 8
VARIATION: +9
ANALYSIS: I don’t know if Stutzle can climb as high as Leon Draisaitl — who went third overall in 2014 — but I’m confident he can crack the top 10 in 2020. The latest German sensation, Stutzle is already excelling against men. The DEL is an underrated pro league — getting better by the year — and Stutzle isn’t just fitting in, he’s standing out on a consistent basis. There is tons to like about his skill-set, looking like a player who could make a pretty quick and seamless transition to the North American game. Stutzle will get to showcase his talent on a big stage with Germany returning to the World Juniors this year and I’m expecting him to be a consensus top-10 pick coming out of that tournament — if he isn’t heading in. It’ll be difficult for Stutzle to overtake any of the prospects in my top seven and he has a handful of others to hold off in order to stay in the top 10, but I like his chances going forward based on what we’ve seen so far.
2) Alexander Pashin (F, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 40
OCTOBER RANKING: 18
VARIATION: +22
ANALYSIS: Pashin had his coming-out party at the Hlinka and has since been proving he’s no one-hit wonder. He’s producing around a point-per-game pace in Russia’s junior league and looking like the real deal. He can dazzle with elite skill, but his finishing ability is key to his rise into my first-round range. I don’t know how much higher Pashin can go — I can’t see him overtaking Rodion Amirov (No. 12) as my top Russian forward — but he could potentially play his way into the top 15. The more I watch Pashin, the more I see shades of Artemi Panarin.
3) Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 30
OCTOBER RANKING: 23
VARIATION: +7
ANALYSIS: Guhle is just solid — that’s the best word to describe him. Not flashy, but solid. He plays like a pro already, very effective and efficient. His defensive-zone awareness and ability to read and react to the attack is near elite. He’s a shutdown defender first and foremost, but he’s got the tools to chip in offensively. He skates well enough. He passes well enough. And he’s got a booming slapshot. But the toolbox is what will take Guhle to great heights. He may not be as offensive as his older brother — Anaheim Ducks blueliner Brendan Guhle — but he reminds me of another rearguard drafted out of the Dub with the same first name, Kelowna’s Kaedan Korczak. The NHL comparable that I used for Korczak in his draft year was Boston’s Brandon Carlo. That could also apply to Kaiden Guhle, who I could see pushing for the top 20 because he’s that solid.
4) Justin Sourdif (RC, Canada, Vancouver WHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 44
OCTOBER RANKING: 33
VARIATION: +11
ANALYSIS: Sourdif has also started strong in the Dub, an offensive catalyst for a Giants team that is stronger on the back end than up front. Much of their offence comes from defenceman Bowen Byram, but Sourdif is doing his best to change that and become a similar threat whenever he’s on the ice. Sourdif might be the Giants’ most dangerous forward since Brendan Gallagher and Evander Kane and he’s got a little bit of both of them in his game. Sourdif is now knocking on the door of the first round in my rankings, with the potential to kick that door down in the months to come.
5) Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)
PRESEASON RANKING: 52
OCTOBER RANKING: 37
VARIATION: +15
ANALYSIS: Grans is back to where I had him projected prior to the Hlinka — back to looking like a potential first-rounder and the top defenceman out of Sweden for 2020. Grans wasn’t Sweden’s best defenceman at the Hlinka and underwhelmed there — aside from scoring a slick shootout goal. His overall game left a lot to be desired during that tournament and dropped his stock a bit for me, but it appears Grans was working off the summer rust and just getting up to speed. The Grans that scouts were expecting to see there has since been on display amongst his peers in Sweden. He’s putting up points in that junior league, but I don’t expect Grans to be an offensive dynamo like Erik Karlsson and Erik Brannstrom. That’s not his game. He’s more like the aforementioned Guhle in terms of playing a solid all-around game. The Swedish comparables could be Jonas Brodin and Robert Hagg, but some believe Grans has more offensive upside. He’s Swedish, he’s big, and he’s right-handed, so you know there will be plenty of interest from NHL teams and Grans could continue to rise throughout the draft year.
6) Shakir Mukhamadullin (LD, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 53
OCTOBER RANKING: 38
VARIATION: +15
ANALYSIS: Mukhamadullin is the top defenceman out of Russia for 2020, already getting into a good number of KHL games and recording his first professional point while also playing on the stacked Tolpar junior team with fellow top prospects Pashin and Amirov, though the latter has been primarily in the KHL. All three have bright futures, with Mukhamadullin displaying nice offensive tools and tons of physicality at the Hlinka. He’s not the biggest guy on the ice but has the ability to time those big open-ice hits — and he’s always looking to throw them. Mukhamadullin reminds me a lot of Washington’s Dmitry Orlov.
7) Topi Niemela (RD, Finland, Karpat Liiga)
PRESEASON RANKING: 101
OCTOBER RANKING: 39
VARIATION: +62
ANALYSIS: Niemela could be the 2020 version of Ville Heinola, who is obviously exceeding expectations with Winnipeg. Niemela caught my eye on several occasions during the Hlinka — and, in hindsight, I should have had him closer to 50 than 100 in my preseason rankings as a result — but he’s carried that momentum into playing pro from the outset of his draft year. That is harder to do in Finland than some other European leagues — especially for defencemen — so Niemela has certainly put his name on the first-round radar. There are similarities to Heinola in terms of Niemela’s playing style and his poise with the puck. He’s not a perfect clone, but scouts are liking what they are seeing from Niemela and his stock has gone way up in the early stages.
8) William Wallinder (LD, Sweden, MODO J20)
PRESEASON RANKING: Not Ranked
OCTOBER RANKING: 44
VARIATION: +81
ANALYSIS: The highest debutant and thus bigger riser for my October rankings, Wallinder wasn’t at the Hlinka but had his coming-out party shortly thereafter at the less prestigious Junior Club World Cup. He was dominant there and honestly looked a lot like Philip Broberg with his physical tools — the size, skating and puck skills. That raw package is enticing and Wallinder could challenge Grans to become the highest-drafted Swedish defenceman in 2020. That is to say No. 44 is a starting point for Wallinder, perhaps nowhere near his peak for my rankings. I want to see a little more before I get too bullish on Wallinder, but I don’t see the big issue with HockeyProspect.com debuting him at No. 16. I quite liked that bold ranking based on the little bit I’ve seen thus far. I wouldn’t be shocked if Wallinder and Grans both cracked the top 31 come June — possibly even the top 20 — with Emil Andrae (No. 45) and Leo Loof (No. 61) not too far behind.
9) Carter Savoie (LW, Canada, Sherwood Park AJHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 62
OCTOBER RANKING: 47
VARIATION: +15
ANALYSIS: Savoie will probably always be overshadowed by his younger brother Matthew — a phenom playing in the WHL at 15 and projected as a top-three pick for 2022 — but the elder Savoie is a quality prospect in his own right. He was another standout from that Junior Club World Cup and is looking like the top tier-II prospect from Canada for 2020. The AJHL has produced a couple first-round picks in recent years — namely, defencemen Cale Makar (2017) and Jacob Bernard-Docker (2018) — and projected 2020 first-rounder Dylan Holloway (No. 11) also developed in that league before heading to Wisconsin (NCAA) for his draft year. Savoie will push to join that list, then be off to Denver next season unless he changes course to join Matthew with WHL Winnipeg. Carter Savoie is already too good for the AJHL as evidenced by his gaudy stat-line to start this season. He’s an undersized offensive catalyst, with similarities to Toronto’s Alex Kerfoot and St. Louis’ Jaden Schwartz — both of whom developed in tier-II leagues, with Schwartz becoming a first-round pick (14th overall in 2010 out of the USHL after previously dominating the SJHL). Look for Carter Savoie to follow a similar path.
10) Oliver Suni (RW, Finland, Oshawa OHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 65
OCTOBER RANKING: 51
VARIATION: +14
ANALYSIS: Suni also flashed nice upside in representing Finland at the Hlinka and he’s made a smooth transition to North America — hitting the ground running in the OHL, at least offensively. I haven’t been able to watch him too closely there — no full game viewings of Oshawa yet — but the highlight clips have been impressive and the stats speak for themselves in terms of becoming a riser. I liked Suni at the Hlinka, so I’m not overly surprised by the success he’s having on this side of the pond.
Honourable Mentions
NOTE: Here are 11 more prospects that are notably trending up in my rankings — all rising by double-digits for October.
Leo Loof (LD, Sweden, Farjestad J20)
PRESEASON RANKING: 81
OCTOBER RANKING: 61
VARIATION: +20
Donovan Sebrango (LD, Canada, Kitchener OHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 106
OCTOBER RANKING: 70
VARIATION: +36
Landon Slaggert (LC, USA, NTDP U18)
PRESEASON RANKING: 109
OCTOBER RANKING: 76
VARIATION: +33
Ethan Bowen (LC, Canada, Chilliwack BCHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 112
OCTOBER RANKING: 78
VARIATION: +34
Ronan Seeley (LD, Canada, Everett WHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: Not Ranked
OCTOBER RANKING: 80
VARIATION: +45
Calle Clang (G, Sweden, Rogle SHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: 115
OCTOBER RANKING: 84
VARIATION: +31
Nick Malik (G, Czech Republic, Ocelari Trinec Czech)
PRESEASON RANKING: 98
OCTOBER RANKING: 85
VARIATION: +13
Evan Vierling (LC, Canada, Flint OHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: Not Ranked
OCTOBER RANKING: 100
VARIATION: +25
Alexander Nikishin (D, Russia, Krylia Sovetov Moskva MHL)
PRESEASON RANKING: Not Ranked
OCTOBER RANKING: 102
VARIATION: +23
Juuso Maenpaa (LC, Finland, Jokerit U20)
PRESEASON RANKING: 118
OCTOBER RANKING: 105
VARIATION: +13
Brock Faber (RD, USA, NTDP U18)
PRESEASON RANKING: Not Ranked
OCTOBER RANKING: 112
VARIATION: +13