The 2025-26 NHL regular season is winding down. For many players, it’s been quite the success, but some have failed to live up to expectations. Which NHLers have had the most disappointing seasons, and do any have bounce-back potential for the 2026-27 campaign?
J.T. Miller
J.T. Miller was supposed to be the difference-maker for the New York Rangers this season. They even named him captain ahead of the start of the regular season, but it has not gone well. He has 50 points in 64 games, a 64-point pace over 82 games. That’s not awful, but it’s fair to say the Rangers expected more from him.
Miller’s effort has certainly come into question. I’m sure you’ve seen some of the video clips of his lackadaisical defensive game this season; there was one versus the Vegas Golden Knights that certainly stood out. He’s also had some eye-raising post-game quotes after Rangers losses that question his leadership.
More importantly, Miller just hasn’t produced on the ice. Granted, he is underperforming his expected numbers, but the Rangers have only controlled 41.46 percent of the actual goals when he’s been on the ice. He has four years left on his contract at a cap hit of $8 million, so he probably isn’t going anywhere any time soon. The Rangers will have to hope they can find a way to make it work moving forward.
Timo Meier
It feels like Timo Meier’s season has flown under the radar, but not because he’s lighting the lamp. The New Jersey Devils are paying him $8.8 million annually, but he has just 24 goals and 42 points as of this writing. That’s not close to what the Devils need out of him for what his contract is.
If there is a silver lining, it’s that Meier’s expected numbers are all excellent. He’s driving play, and the Devils are a much better team when he’s on the ice. However, at some point, the production has to start matching the expected numbers. He’s averaged just 1.42 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, a rate you’d expect from a bottom-six forward. He has five more years left on his contract, so the Devils are in a difficult position. If he doesn’t get it together next season, they need to consider trading him.
Marco Kasper
The Detroit Red Wings are having another late-season collapse. Marco Kasper isn’t the reason for it, but his struggles amplify some greater concerns with the team. The hope was that he’d make the leap as the team’s second-line center after a solid rookie season in 2024-25, but he’s hit the sophomore slump.
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Kasper has just eight goals and 18 points in 76 games, but I wouldn’t say he’s a lost cause. Most of his underlying numbers are solid, and he’s had some rotten shooting luck. He’s shooting just 6.5 percent this season, and he has an on-ice shooting percentage of just 5.83 percent. The result is the Red Wings controlling only 38.71 percent of the actual goals, even though Kasper has an expected goals share (xG%) above 51 percent.
It’s similar to Miller, but the difference is that Kasper is ten years younger, while Miller has shown signs of decline in recent seasons. I’d be more optimistic about Kasper bouncing back, but he’s had a disappointing second season in the NHL by any standard.
Thomas Harley
Thomas Harley is a star defenseman (no pun intended), but the 2025-26 season hasn’t been his year. After totaling 16 goals and 50 points last season, he has just six goals and 33 points this season. Point totals didn’t tell the whole story for defensemen, but his underlying numbers have fallen off, too.
Harley has an xG% of 48.82 percent, and the Stars have controlled just 49.48 percent of the actual goals when he’s been on the ice. He’s been one of the Stars’ worst shot suppressors, allowing 2.81 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Only Wyatt Johnston has worse defensive numbers among Stars skaters.
The Stars have gotten by this season with Harley playing significantly worse than the No. 1 defenseman they expect him to be, but that could be a problem in the playoffs. Stars GM Jim Nill has tripled down on adding less-skilled, immobile defenseman to complement Harley and Miro Heiskanen. They need Harley to find his game sooner rather than later, especially since they will be facing Quinn Hughes and the Minnesota Wild in the first round.
Kent Johnson
Kent Johnson looked like a player on the rise after a 2024-25 campaign that saw him total 24 goals and 57 points in 71 games, but he’s fallen off a cliff this season. He’s recorded just seven goals and 21 points in 71 games, and he’s been a healthy scratch on more than a few occasions under two different head coaches.
Johnson is shooting just 6.5 percent this season, but his struggles go beyond a lack of finishing. His offensive and defensive impacts have declined significantly at even strength. It’s not an accident that two different coaches have healthy scratched him. Johnson isn’t the reason the Blue Jackets might miss the playoffs, but he would be a difference-maker if he were producing at last season’s levels.
Linus Ullmark
The Ottawa Senators are fighting for their playoff lives, but they could be in a much more comfortable position if they had league-average goaltending. It starts with Linus Ullmark, who’s having one of the worst seasons of his career. He has an .886 save percentage and has allowed 16.4 goals above expected. That latter number ranks fourth-worst among qualified goaltenders in the NHL.
It’s not like the Senators have been a leaky defensive team, either. They’re allowing just 2.32 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the second-best rate in the NHL to the Golden Knights. Ullmark has been a bit better over his last ten games, totaling an .895 SV%. That’s right around the league average, and perhaps it can help the Senators nab one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. But his struggles have put the Senators on the playoff bubble instead of in a firm position.
Jordan Kyrou
Jordan Kyrou is a difficult case for me. On one hand, he has some of the best underlying numbers in the NHL among any skater. Not just forwards. On the other hand, he has just 17 goals and 41 points in 66 games, so the production doesn’t match his sparkling metrics or $8.125 million cap hit.
Those metrics are elite, however. Kyrou has an xG% of 60.99 percent and has shown elite play-driving ability. The reason for the decline in production may be two-fold. One) The Blues just aren’t a very good team. Two) Kyrou’s five-on-five shooting percentage of 9.52 percent is the lowest he’s had since he appeared in 16 games during the 2018-19 season as a 20-year-old.
There is plenty of bounce-back potential with Kyrou. He scored 30+ goals in each of the previous three seasons, but will it come with the Blues? He’s been in the rumor mill since last offseason, and perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery. Any team looking for a scoring winger should have him among their trade targets this summer.
Mason McTavish
The Anaheim Ducks signed Mason McTavish to a six-year, $42 million contract just ahead of the start of this season. It was a smart bet, considering he totaled 22 goals and 52 points a season ago. However, he has regressed. His counting totals aren’t awful. He has 15 goals and 36 points in 70 games, but the underlying metrics have nosedived:
McTavish’s defensive game was always a concern. He struggled in that regard last season, but he made up for it with his offensive contributions. That hasn’t been the case this season. McTavish has an xG% of 49.89 percent, and the Ducks have been outscored 55-42 with him on the ice at five-on-five, an actual goals percentage of just 43.3 percent.
The good news with McTavish is that he’s only 23. He has plenty of bounce-back potential, but he has not taken the step forward that many were hoping he would this season. Perhaps a fresh start with a new team is what he needs after a hard and grinding contract negotiation that carried into the 11th hour just ahead of the season beginning.
With the 2025-26 season coming to a close, there’s not much these players can do to reverse their fortunes. However, with the offseason looming, a fresh start and a chance to reset may help them going into the 2026-27 campaign.
