In January, insider Kevin Weekes mentioned Boston Bruins forward Trent Frederic as a “type” the New Jersey Devils might be interested in. As we move closer to the Mar. 7 deadline, Frederic’s name has been discussed more frequently, though nothing has confirmed that conversations are happening.
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Regardless, the Devils need to steer clear of Frederic, who likely won’t move the needle enough to warrant pursuing. The 27-year-old center and pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) has just eight goals and seven assists in 56 games this season, coupled with a poor minus-14 rating. The advanced numbers back up the ugly surface numbers: According to Rono Hockey, he’s in the 22nd percentile in league offense and 34th in defense. By every stretch, he’s been a below average forward in the National Hockey League (NHL).
Why Has He Been Linked to the Devils?
Frederic has been linked to the Devils because they’re in desperate need of a center. Justin Dowling, Erik Haula and Curtis Lazar – all lineup regulars – have combined for just 20 points in 120 games. After Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, there’s a pretty clear black hole in the center position. Dawson Mercer can play center, but he’s not great in the dot and has seemed to be deployed on the wing more often.
For the last couple seasons, Frederic seemed like a guy who could perfectly handle a 3C role on a contender. He scored 17 and 18 goals in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively. In both of those seasons, he held his own defensively with a combined plus-37 rating…sometimes even getting top six minutes.
Some insiders have touted his speed and physicality as reasons the Devils should pursue him. But when looking deeper, that argument makes zero sense. According to NHL EDGE, his top skating speed has dropped from 22.75 miles per hour (MPH – 77th percentile) last season to 22.05 MPH (bottom-half of league) this season. On top of that, the Devils are currently fifth in the NHL in hits. “Physicality” isn’t a good enough reason to bring in someone who doesn’t really move the needle elsewhere.
Furthermore, he’s just 43.6% in the dot this season and doesn’t play any special teams. The logic makes sense that if he could bounce back to what he was the past two seasons, he could still be a useful piece. But the Devils are in win now mode; this is not the time to take on a project.
Lastly, it’s pretty clear that the biggest issue for the current Devils is their lack of consistent scoring and finishing, especially since trading Tyler Toffoli at last season’s deadline. According to Natural Stat Trick, Frederic has scored his eight goals on 10.5 expected goals, meaning he’s finishing ~24% less often than he should. That would just add to the problem for a Devils team that has scored ~21 goals below expected this season.
They are already without their first-round pick thanks to the Jacob Markstrom trade, and it seems unlikely the Bruins would part with Frederic for anything less than a second. So, giving up a second (and maybe more) for Frederic would put the Devils at an immediate disadvantage when trying to make a deal for a top six mainstay.
The only way they should even consider it is if they can move pending UFA Curtis Lazar in the deal and then extend Frederic in the offseason to make him the permanent 4C. But in the context of having bigger holes to fill, they’re better off waiting until Frederic hits free agency and not having to give up cherished asset(s).
Devils’ general manager Tom Fitzgerald has showed extreme patience, opting not to make any panic moves thus far. We’ll see if that pays off in the long run.
