With a 1-1-1 record through the first three games of their season-opening Western road trip, the Philadelphia Flyers had the opportunity to determine the narrative heading into their home opener. A matchup against a respectable but not formidable Seattle Kraken team meant a wide range of outcomes in play.
Unfortunately for the Flyers, the worst possible scenario came true. Philadelphia’s 6-4 loss wasn’t just their worst performance of the season; it harkened back to the ugly nine-game losing streak in the spring that cost the team a playoff spot. After a decent start, the Flyers unraveled in the middle period, with Seattle lighting the lamp four times and scoring three goals in 2:55.
The Flyers battled back, with two quick third-period goals getting the team back within one. But an Oliver Bjorkstrand breakaway goal put the game out of reach with 5:58 remaining in regulation.
Second Period Demise for a Second Straight Game
Over their last two games, the Flyers have outscored their opponents 4-1 and generated 58.8% of the expected goals (xG) at 5-on-5… in the first period. Of all combinations, the Flyers’ fourth line dominated the opening frame. Scott Laughton scored his first two goals of the season on a couple of nice finishes — one a wrap-around on the rebound of a Ryan Poehling shot, the other a deft release into the top corner over the right shoulder of Philipp Grubauer.
Poehling and Garnet Hathaway collected an assist on both goals and the trio controlled 91.48% xG in the opening 20 minutes. Besides a Brandon Montour blast beating Ivan Fedotov, the Flyers had reason to feel good about their start.
But over the last two games, the Flyers have been outscored 6-1 in the second period with an xG share of just 22.22%. It took them 12:28 into the middle frame to get to two shots in the period, by which point Seattle had already tied the game on a power-play tally by Jared McCann.
The game was still within reach until, very quickly, it wasn’t. An extensive offensive shift for Seattle ended on a rebound goal by Eeli Tolvanen to give the Kraken their first lead. Moments later, a quick transition caught the Flyers’ top pair of Travis Sanheim and Cam York scrambling and ended with Kraken captain Jordan Eberle beating Sanheim to the back post for a tap-in. Before the Flyers could even get their heads around what was happening, Seattle put the game away when Shane Wright scored off the ensuing face-off just eight seconds after Eberle’s tally.
Fedotov’s Play a Major Concern
While the Flyers didn’t play well as a team, they should have been in better shape on the scoreboard before everything went south. Each of Seattle’s first two goals came from a long distance, and while the second shot went through Rasmus Ristolainen’s legs, Fedotov should have at least stopped one if not both attempts. Each of them went right through Fedotov as well.
The only goal Fedotov was blameless on was Eberle’s. The Tolvanen goal should never have happened, as the initial shot hit Fedotov square in the chest and popped right in front of the net. Wright’s goal was a nice shot but also stoppable. It also led to the end of his night, as Samuel Ersson took over for Fedotov at the start of the third period.
Through five periods of play this season, Fedotov has struggled mightily to prove he’s an NHL-caliber goaltender. His save percentage (SV%) is a ghastly .818 and he’s allowed a whopping minus-3.92 goals above expected according to Moneypuck, worse than every other goalie except for Alexandar Georgiev. We’re also talking about a netminder with a .873 SV% in the preseason, and while it’s not fair to hold last year’s brief end-of-season audition against him due to the circumstances surrounding it, Fedotov’s .811 mark in that sample is nearly identical to his work this season.
The sample size is small, but Fedotov has not shown much promise in his time in a Flyers uniform. Prospect Alexei Kolosov has a .885 SV% in two games for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, so he’s not exactly banging the door down yet. But with Elliotte Friedman reporting the Flyers have until October to get him on board with their plans or consider returning him to the Kontinental Hockey League, Fedotov needs to distinguish himself quickly.
Highest Paid Players Need to Elevate
Of course, Fedotov isn’t the only one responsible for this defeat. The Flyers have three players making over $6 million on their roster (Travis Konecny’s extension doesn’t kick until next year and he’s played well regardless) and all of them had underwhelming road trips. Owen Tippett, whose eight-year extension begins this year, has just one assist and is hitting the net on only 33.3% of his shot attempts (he was at 53.1% last season). He had a great chance to tie the score at 3-3 in the second but couldn’t get the puck around Adam Larsson and take advantage of an out-of-position Grubauer.
Though Cam York saved face with a snipe off the rush in the third to give the Flyers some life, Philadelphia’s top pair of York and Travis Sanheim has had a rough go to begin the campaign. Out of 75 defense pairs with at least 30 5-on-5 minutes together, the York-Sanheim duo is 66th with a 38.8 xG%. They’ve also been outshot and are probably fortunate to be even in on-ice goal differential (4-4). York at least emerged from the trip with two goals, while Sanheim and Ristolainen were the only Flyers to play the entire road trip and not score a point.
Meanwhile, captain Sean Couturier has not made much of an impact through the first four games. He has just one assist and got off to a sluggish start Thursday with an xG% below five percent in the opening period. To his credit, he improved as the game went along, finishing as a positive play-driver and putting four shots on goal, tied with Tippett for the most of any Flyer, including a point-blank chance late in the third. However, two points for three players who combine to make $20.7 million in four games is a difficult hole to dig yourself into.
Next Up
For the third time in four years, the Flyers will host the Vancouver Canucks for their home opener (in 2022, the Flyers had to wait until their second home game to welcome in Vancouver). The teams played to a stalemate through 65 minutes last Friday before the Flyers (playing in their season opener) secured the extra point in the shootout.
Related: Flyers Need to Play the Long Game with Ivan Fedotov
After spending the first week of the season in a different time zone, the Flyers won’t have to leave the Northeast for a while. Five of their next seven games are at the Wells Fargo Center and the road contests take them to fairly nearby Washington and Boston. Home ice advantage didn’t yield much difference for the Flyers last season (20-17-4 at home, 18-16-7 on the road), but the buzz surrounding Matvei Michkov should make for an electric atmosphere on Saturday night.
Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick
