How the Flyers Can Make an Elias Pettersson Trade Work

by

After nearly 11 months of no trades involving roster players, the rebuilding Philadelphia Flyers finally made one. Sending Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost to the Calgary Flames for Jakob Pelletier, Andrei Kuzmenko, and a couple of draft picks doesn’t move the needle a ton, but it does establish that the Orange and Black are active.

My thought process is that Kuzmenko, a scorer who isn’t scoring (15 points in 37 games), was more or less a throw-in. With his 29th birthday coming up and on an expiring deal, I see this as the Flyers taking a chance on a high-upside player in a rut. At the same time, it’s impossible to deny the Elias Pettersson connection—both played their best hockey next to each other with the Vancouver Canucks.

With Pettersson rumors swirling, it wouldn’t hurt to at least entertain an addition of that caliber. But why is he so good? What may it cost to acquire him? What will the salary cap implications of that be? Let’s discuss.

Putting Pettersson’s Numbers in Perspective

Throughout his still-young career, Pettersson has been an elite producer. He’s having a down 2024-25 campaign (32 points in 44 games), but that doesn’t take away from his prior marks—he scored 102 points just two seasons ago.

For context, let’s compare his scoring by age to Travis Konecny‘s using points per 60 minutes. Both of them debuted in their draft-plus-two season, which is listed as 19 years old below. Compared to the rest of the sample, they are great. However, Pettersson reigns supreme:

Travis Konecny vs. Elias Pettersson points per 60 by age.
Travis Konecny versus Elias Pettersson in points per 60 by age (The Hockey Writers)

In four of the six seasons they’ve shared, Pettersson was a better scorer than Konecny. Had he played just one more game in a shortened and injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign (21 years old), it’d be five out of seven. Seeing as he has back-to-back seasons with Selke Trophy voting, there’s a lot to like about his game. Did I mention that he’s a center?

These factors more than justify his $11.6 million cap hit. It’s evidently steep, but the Flyers can’t afford to be overly picky. There’s no reason for them to be “out” on a talent like Pettersson—they should be all-in. That said, he will come with a cost. What might that be?

What the Flyers May Have to Sacrifice

I’ve seen the sentiment that the Flyers don’t have the assets required to meet the Canucks’ preferred value in a Pettersson trade. However, I disagree. There may be something here.

For one, we must establish that the Canucks, while currently battling to just make the playoffs, are a good hockey team. A club that isn’t opting for a full-scale rebuild will want some roster players back. The Flyers have a few pieces that may work, in my eyes.

Rasmus Ristolainen is the big one. The reason for that is, to put it bluntly, the Canucks’ defense has been a disaster this season. They have eight defensemen with at least 100 minutes of 5-on-5 play, yet only Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek have a positive goal differential (and expected goal differential).

The Canucks have four defensemen with over 350 minutes of 5-on-5 usage who are above 6-foot-4: Tyler Myers, Carson Soucy, Vincent Desharnais, and Derek Forbort. Vancouver swears by the “go big or go home” lifestyle, so Ristolainen may be very high on their radar. A second-pairing, right-shot defenseman who is notoriously big and physical, Ristolainen almost makes too much sense.

He’s not the only player with value, though. The Flyers recently extended him, but Owen Tippett may also intrigue Vancouver. A speedy scoring winger with decent size (6-foot-1, 210 pounds), his type doesn’t exactly grow on trees. He and Ristolainen probably wouldn’t be enough, but it’s a start.

Following the trade with the Flames, the Flyers have three first-round picks and four second-round picks for the 2025 class. Plus, they have a few prospects who may tickle the Canucks’ fancy. In this hypothetical, Vancouver likely flips those picks and prospects for more roster talent. Dealing with Philadelphia allows for some freedom in who they make subsequent trades with.

Related: Philadelphia Flyers 2024-25 Post-WJC Prospect Ranking: Top 15

If a trade included Ristolainen, Tippett, major draft picks, and potentially a good prospect, that could compete with anyone. A prospect may not even be needed, considering how publicized the Pettersson ordeal has become.

What Would the Cap Situation Look Like?

With Ristolainen and Tippett out of the picture in this hypothetical, the Flyers would only be taking on $300,000 in additional cap-hit expenses. What does that look like in the long term, though?

On Jan. 31, the NHL and NHL Players’ Association announced their estimates for what the salary cap ceiling will be over the next three seasons. In 2025-26, it’s expected to be $95.5 million. In 2026-27, that number should increase to $104.0 million. In 2027-28, the hope is that it can reach $113.5 million—that’s quite a bit more than the $88.0 million maximum the league has today.

Let’s just look at next season, because a lot can happen between now and 2027-28. If the following was the blueprint for the roster next season, the Flyers would have 17 out of 23 contracts on the NHL team with Kuzmenko, Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster, Pelletier, and Cam York left to pay due to their expiring contracts. Fortunately, $31.0 million would be at the team’s disposal:

I’m not sure if Kuzmenko is a returnee in 2025-26, especially considering how strong the Flyers are on the wing. But let’s say he extends, as well as the other four free agents. I’ll set aside $19.0 million in contract money for them, just as a rough estimate.

In this scenario, the Flyers would possess $12.0 million in cap space, assuming Ryan Ellis is placed on long-term injured reserve (LTIR). By the looks of it, the team may need a top-six forward and another defenseman to round out this core for the time being. The Orange and Black are far from needing to go all-in, but they should be putting forth a competitive roster in the short- and long-term future at this stage of the rebuild. Pettersson helps accomplish that.

Elias Pettersson Vancouver Canucks
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

Now, I’m not a proponent of a Samuel Ersson and Ivan Fedotov duo. I explained why in this piece—goaltending is really holding this team back, so a fix may be necessary. But this is just an outline to help picture what the team could look like. Besides, there are 14 forwards listed—one will have to go.

I don’t have to explain it to you. Adding Pettersson and using all of that cap space responsibly could make the Flyers a pretty good hockey team. In the present, they’re flirting with a wildcard spot despite having perhaps the weakest center and goaltending cores in the NHL. You also have to consider their 28th-ranked power play in all of this, too.

If Matvei Michkov has a growth spurt as a second-year player (very likely, but beware the sophomore slump), Philadelphia may be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, there’s no way of knowing if general manager Daniel Briere is fully committed to acquiring Pettersson. In the event that he is, be prepared to watch some exciting hockey again.

The Flyers haven’t been the most interesting product for a while now. I’ll be the first to tell you that. But a Pettersson trade completely changes the outlook of the team. Is that what the Flyers have in mind, or is it something else?

SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE TO OUR PHILADELPHIA FLYERS SUBSTACK NEWSLETTER