Ilya Sorokin has been one of the best players in the NHL this season. The Russian goaltender has been the catalyst for the New York Islanders‘ return to form this season. Despite the team in front of him having issues producing at 5-on-5, Sorokin has continued to sustain excellence to propel the Islanders towards the top of the standings. They’re fighting for their playoff lives, but they’re among the monsters in the Eastern Conference because of the superb play of their goalie.
Sorokin has been so good, he’s going to get himself into the Vezina Trophy conversation. He has received Vezina votes in each of the last four seasons, with a runner-up finish in 2022-23 being the jewel of his career to this point. This should be the season it changes.
If you are unfamiliar with the Vezina Trophy, it’s the award given to the league’s best goaltender. It’s named after Georges Vezina, who passed away in 1926. It was originally awarded for the fewest goals against in a season, but in 1981-82, it was renamed the William M. Jennings, and the Vezina became recognition for the best netminder, regardless of statistics.
In the new format, the very first goalie to win it was Billy Smith, the iconic netminder from the Islanders’ 1980s dynasty. Sorokin should be the second Islander to win it.
Sorokin’s Statistics
Sorokin boasts a .914 save percentage and a 2.48 goals-against average at the time of writing. You might be thinking, “Hey, that’s not that impressive,” which would have been true in the past, but save percentages are down across the league this season. His .914 is extremely respectable, especially given his workload.
Related: Islanders’ 5-on-5 Struggles Continue to Limit Stanley Cup Potential
Sorokin is eighth in saves across the entire league, and only one goalie above him has a save percentage above .910: Logan Thompson for the Washington Capitals. If you combine that with Sorokin’s league-leading seven shutouts, you get one of the monsters of the crease in the NHL.
That’s not the most insane part. According to MoneyPuck, Sorokin has a goals saved above expected (GSAx) of 31.1. If you’re not familiar with this stat, it means Sorokin has stopped 31 shots expected to find twine more than he’s allowed. So, a lob from the blueline isn’t likely to go in. A shot from the crease with the goalie in a different time zone is expected to go in. He’s essentially robbed guys 31 more times than he’s had bad mistakes. That’s the best in the league and one of the best goaltending performances we’ve ever seen.
Since he’s faced the eighth most shots, he’s expected to have more saves, right? Well, his goals saved above expected per 60 (GSAx/60) are 0.672. Among goalies who have played in at least 30 games, his GSAx and his GSAx/60 lead the league. That’s the kind of season Sorokin is having, and it is being underappreciated as the Islanders continue to fight for their playoff lives.
Let’s say you don’t like any of the stats I’ve already given, and you think wins are the most important goalie statistic. He’s sixth in wins, with fewer games played than almost everyone above him.
Sorokin’s Coverage for Islanders’ Mistakes
If you think this Islanders team is like teams of the past, you’d be deeply mistaken. The Islanders under former head coach Barry Trotz were hard to break down; they were solid and built around a complete 200-foot game. They were built to frustrate opponents, not outscore them. That isn’t the case at all this season. The Islanders are a middle-of-the-pack offense in every measurable metric, but have been dire defensively.
According to Natural Stat Trick, only three teams have a worse expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) than the New York Islanders at 5-on-5. They’d expect to give up 2.93 goals, just under three goals, if an entire game is played at 5-on-5. What are they actually giving up? Just 2.30, the ninth-best total in the NHL. That’s the impact Sorokin is having covering for his teammates.
Sorokin’s going to end the season with one of the most insane stat lines in the league. A save percentage likely above .910, at least seven shutouts, and analytical numbers that make him seem like a monster highlight the sparkling performances of the Russian, and he’s covered so much for the Islanders that they’re sitting in the playoff hunt. If they get in and Sorokin continues to be a big part of that fight, he is the most deserving goaltender in the NHL for the Vezina Trophy.
