If the Tampa Bay Lightning have taught fans anything besides what it takes to win the Stanley Cup, they have shown there is no single path to the NHL. Every season, Tampa Bay appears to have a new late bloomer come out of nowhere. Last season was no different when Mitchell Chaffee burst onto the scene just one day before his 26th birthday. The former Iowa Wild forward recorded a goal and assist in a 6-3 win over the Arizona Coyotes.
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This stellar performance earned Chaffee a full-time roster spot for the rest of the season, including the playoff series against the Florida Panthers. Furthermore, he signed a two-year extension with Tampa Bay in May with an average annual value of $800,000. Daily Faceoff has him listed as the fourth-line right wing on their line combination projections, so what can fans expect from Chaffee in his sophomore season?
Chaffee’s Path to the NHL
Before deciding on reasonable expectations for the 26-year-old this season, let’s recap how Chaffee got to where he is today. The Grand Rapids native earned his call-up to the NHL roughly halfway through the season in January. Before his rookie season, Chaffee played just two NHL games with the team that signed him as an undrafted free agent, the Minnesota Wild.
Chaffee earned a two-year entry-level deal with Minnesota following three seasons with the University of Massachusetts at the Collegiate Level. In 109 games with the Minutemen, Chaffee notched 47 goals and 48 assists for 95 points (0.87 points per game). Moreover, he was named captain of his school’s team in his final season in 2019-20. The winger then turned pro the following season, recording two goals and 17 points in 28 games (0.61 points per game) with Iowa in the American Hockey League. Chaffee would spend the next two seasons in the Wild organization before landing a two-way deal with Tampa Bay.
Chaffee’s solid production with the Syracuse Crunch earned him a spot on the Lightning roster. Before his call-up, he had 12 goals and 14 assists for 26 points in 36 games (0.72 points per game). The rest is history for the Michigan-born Chaffee, as all his hard work finally paid off to achieve his goal of cracking an NHL roster. Now, how did he perform during his rookie season?
Analyzing Chaffee’s 2023-24 Campaign
While his time with the Lightning was short, Chaffee showed solid bottom-six upside in his 30 games. During that time, he recorded four goals and three assists for seven points (0.23 points per game). One noticeable stat of Chaffee’s was his 53.78 goals for percentage (GF%) at 5-on-5 via Evolving Hockey. This percentage is impressive considering his defensive role on the team, which speaks to his poor expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 40.32%. He picked up a defensive role for head coach Jon Cooper, ranking fifth amongst Lightning forwards in defensive zone start percentage (DZS%) at 11.81%.
In addition, Chaffee was good on the forecheck, disrupting other teams on their breakout attempts. This skill comes from his aggression and ability to read plays with his hockey IQ. He worked hard and was one of the most consistent players on the team to close the season. What are reasonable expectations heading into his sophomore season?
Expectations for the 2024-25 Season
Despite his projected fourth-line role, the Lightning must continue to rely on players like Chaffee to keep the contention window open. The team spends a decent amount of their money on their superstars, but all of them are on cost-effective deals relative to other players around the league of their caliber. A player like Chaffee has already reached the floor of an NHL bottom-six forward. The trend is only up from here on out, and we can see him becoming a permanent third-line winger for this team in the prime of his career. He won’t play flashy and light up the score sheet, but he is a reliable two-way workhorse. Somewhere around the 10-goal and 25-point mark across 82 games is doable for the 26-year-old forward.
