The Ottawa Senators must feel like the mythical Rocky Balboa in the 1976 classic boxing movie “Rocky”, as they prepare to go up against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the NHL Playoffs. As Rocky explained it the night before his fight with world heavyweight boxing champion Apollo Creed, “Nobody’s ever gone the distance with Creed, and if I can go that distance, you see, and that bell rings and I’m still standin’, I’m gonna’ know for the first time in my life, see, that I weren’t just another bum from the neighborhood.”
There’s no downside in this series for the Senators and everything to lose for the Maple Leafs. That’s what makes them as dangerous as Balboa was to Creed. All the Senators must do is win a few games in the series and all will be right in Ottawa. They’ll have gone the distance against the Atlantic Division’s equivalent of Apollo Creed. Anything short of a convincing victory in five, or at most six games over the underdog Senators will be a humiliation in Hogtown.
The last time the Senators met the Maple Leafs in a playoff series was 21 long springs ago when they were eliminated in a bitterly contested Game 7 of their quarter-final series. Senators captain Brady Tkachuk was just four years old, while Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson were still in diapers. It’s now up to them to go the distance with the Leafs. And who knows, one of them may just land the knockout punch that puts the Maple Leafs to the mat.
Playoff Expectations Weigh Heavily on the Maple Leafs
Let’s face it, the Maple Leafs’ time to win a Stanley Cup is now. With stars the likes of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Willian Nylander and Morgan Rielly, it’s hard to imagine a future squad better than this version of the Maple Leafs. If a team loaded with this much talent can’t deliver a Stanley Cup in June this year, then when will the Maple Leafs’ faithful ever see the Cup paraded down Yonge Street?
The core four of the Maple Leafs’ roster – Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Tavares – together pull down $46.7 million in salary per season. Add Rielly’s pay to the mix and these five players eat up almost 60% of next season’s salary cap. That leaves precious little for Maple Leafs general manager (GM) Brad Treliving to work with to keep his team at the top of the standings.
Whether they can afford to re-sign pending free agents Tavares and Marner is in question. While Matthews, Nylander and Rielly are under contract for the next three seasons, they’ll be entering the twilight of their careers when their current contracts expire. All of this is to say that the Maple Leafs are built to win now and that will weigh heavily upon them whether they admit to it or not.
Pressure on the Buds arises from history as well. In the last eight seasons, only once have they made it past the first round. Some of those first-round disappointments were spectacular collapses. What Maple Leafs fan could forgive their loss to the Montreal Canadiens in the qualifying round of the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season? Fans in Hogtown have never forgotten their team’s epic collapse against the Boston Bruins in the 2013 Playoffs when they blew a three-goal lead in Game 7 to be eliminated once again in the first round.
Since the last time the Maple Leafs and Senators met in a playoff matchup over two decades ago, Toronto has failed to qualify for the playoffs in 10 seasons and made it past the first round just twice. Heading into their matchup with the Senators, they must atone for a multitude of sins. For the Toronto faithful, a first-round exit again this season against a team like the Senators would condemn them to eternal hell fire.
The Young and Dangerous Guns of the Senators
All the Senators were expected to do this season was end their seven-season walk in the wilderness and make the playoffs. Senators GM Steve Staios can proudly say, “mission accomplished.” Heading into the playoffs, there is absolutely no pressure on his team.
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For the Senators’ core, Tkachuk, Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Sanderson and Thomas Chabot, this postseason tilt against the Maple Leafs will be their first taste of the playoffs. They’ll have a lean and hungry look about them and such players are always dangerous. They have nothing to lose and any success they have is all experience for playoff series yet to come. As Stutzle explained it, “For us, the goal was to get in, and I feel like, in the playoffs, anything can happen. So, like I said, we’re very confident in our group. There were a lot of lessons learned, but we haven’t played the playoffs, or most of us haven’t, so we’ll see our goals, and we’ll always give 100 per cent effort and we’re really confident in our group.”
The Senators will be looser and free of the mental burdens that weigh on the Maple Leafs. It’s unlikely they’ll be gripping their proverbial sticks as tightly as the Maple Leafs may be clutching theirs.
The Stakes for the Maple Leafs Against the Senators
It’s anyone’s guess as to what would happen if the Maple Leafs were upset by the Senators. Yet there would be massive changes. Media and fan pressure in Toronto, second to none in the NHL, would guarantee that.
Some of the changes would surely include the breakup of the core four, changes in the front office and maybe even the coaching staff. As The Globe and Mail’s Cathal Kelly argues, Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan would be gone, especially since his contract is set to expire at the end of the season. Not only that, but “If the Leafs lose to the Senators, they’re down one, maybe two, core guys. Then it’s a rebuild, whether the Leafs want to call it that or not” (from ‘Will the Leafs stick to the same losing plan? A look at what might await Toronto’s NHL playoff run,’ The Globe and Mail, 19/04/2025).
Senators Have Nothing to Lose in Series Against the Maple Leafs
Many fans in Ottawa, whether they’ll admit it or not, expect their team to lose to the Maple Leafs. A loss for the team, especially if they can squeak out a few wins, will be regarded as the icing on top of a successful season in which they took the next step toward a Stanley Cup.
For the Maple Leafs, beating the Senators is just meeting expectations. They have much more to lose in a first-round loss than they have to gain. Diamonds are made under pressure, but so too is coal. We’ll soon see which the Maple Leafs are made of as their series with the Senators unfolds.
