Somehow, the New York Rangers are still alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, considering how poorly they’ve played over the past week. However, if the trend continues, fans should have little confidence that the Blueshirts will find themselves in the postseason.
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As of now, the Rangers sit just a point out of the first wild card spot currently occupied by the Montreal Canadiens, who have two games in hand. Also, it’s worth noting that the New York Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets with 74 points and 73 points respectively in the standings have two games in hand, meaning the Original Six franchise does not control their own destiny at the moment.
Win the Easier Games
However, they might have the opportunity to change that, as two of the next three games are against teams at or near the bottom of the league. That’s the 32nd-ranked San Jose Sharks and 25th-place Anaheim Ducks. To have any kind of chance, the Rangers need both of those games in the win column. Overtime losses over that stretch won’t cut it – because the schedule will get much tougher.
For example, on Tuesday, they will play the Los Angeles Kings, who sit in second place in the Pacific Division, before the Ducks and Sharks. After that, almost the entire remainder of the schedule will be against teams in a playoff position. That does not include a final matchup against the Islanders, who have earned points in each of their last five games.
Over these next few games against the Ducks, Sharks, Kings, and Minnesota Wild, I figure the Rangers at the very least need to pick up three wins, which would give them another six points for a total of 80. That will give them at least a realistic chance. But still more work needs to be done. After that, seven more games would remain. Over the past two seasons, it has taken between 91–92 points to qualify for the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Assuming that standard holds this season, that would mean the Rangers would have to win the last six of seven, assuming they win three out of four in the softer part of the schedule. It’s an uphill climb – but not impossible.
Stop Relying So Much on Shesterkin
No question, a lot will have to go right – but one thing is certain – if the Rangers continue to play poorly in front of Igor Shesterkin, then they have no chance. Over the last three games, where the Blueshirts have gone 1-2-0, the team has been out-chanced in the expected goal share by 11.24 to 4.96 in expected goals in all situations, according to MoneyPuck.
Particularly, Shesterkin was sensational in Saturday’s 5-3 win against the Vancouver Canucks, where he saved 2.25 goals above expected. Canucks goaltender Kevin Lankinen posted a .636 save percentage in that game. There’s a word to describe that – unsustainable. It was three unacceptable performances in a row, and it comes at a time when the Blueshirts have almost no margin for error as they continue to fight for a postseason spot.
On the bright side, the play in front of the superstar netminder can’t get much worse. But time is running out, and it’s not like the Rangers control their own destiny. The Blueshirts are approaching virtually must-win territory every night. There’s a slim path into the playoffs – but it will require a lengthy winning or point steak.
