Stars’ Game 4 Loss to the Wild Was a Real Missed Opportunity

Game 4 sure felt like a missed opportunity for the Dallas Stars. They were in control for most of the game. They took a 1-0 lead in the first on the power play and held a 2-1 advantage with nearly five minutes left to play in the third. But they couldn’t find that elusive insurance goal to put the Minnesota Wild away and return to Dallas with a 3-1 series lead.

The Stars are still in a fine position, but some concerns are starting to emerge. With the series now turning into a best-of-three, they will quickly need to find some solutions.

Stars Couldn’t Convert at 5-on-5

Winning two games on the road in the postseason isn’t the easiest of tasks, even for the best teams. The Stars won’t scoff at returning to Dallas with a 1-1 split in St. Paul, Minnesota, but they had plenty of opportunities to put Game 4 away.

There was a five-to-six-minute stretch of the game in the second period where the Stars put unrelenting pressure on the Wild. They were out-changing the Stars, cycling the puck, and winning every 50/50 battle in the offensive zone, but they couldn’t find a way to put more distance on the scoreboard.

Miro Heiskanen gave the Stars a 2-1 lead on the power play late in the second, but not scoring during that five-to-six-minute stretch proved costly. The Wild did not have much going on through the first two periods of play. They generated just 0.74 expected goals at five-on-five across the first two periods, but they hung around long enough to get the game tied up late in the third.

The lack of finishing at five-on-five should be mildly concerning for the Stars. They have just three five-on-five goals this series and have been outscored 9-3 at five-on-five. You could argue that the lack of finishing cost them Game 4, but I think there’s reason to be optimistic they’re due for some more five-on-five scoring.

The Stars have generated 8.01 expected goals at five-on-five for the series, and they’re only shooting three percent at that game state. They’re generating quality looks, so those should start finding the back of the net sooner rather than later.

Stars’ Top 6 Needs to Get Going at 5-on-5

Matt Duchene is tied with Taylor Hall for most points (7) in these playoffs. The Stars’ top players are scoring, but they haven’t always carried play at five-on-five. For the most part, the Stars’ bottom six had the better of play at five-on-five yesterday.

The top line of Jason Robertson, Duchene, and Mavrik Bourque finished with an expected goals share (xG%) of 45.2 percent in Game 4. They created just two high-danger chances and gave up six. The second line of Mikko Rantanen, Justin Hryckowian, and Wyatt Johnston didn’t fare much better, either. They finished with an xG% of just 25.88 percent.

Robertson has scored two of the Stars’ three five-on-five goals in this series. Johnston has the other. Duchene and Rantanen have contributed on the power play, but they need to break through at five-on-five. They’ve been relatively quiet at five-on-five, as they’ve generated just 0.45 individual expected goals between them.

“We couldn’t get any puck luck (5-on-5),” Gulutzan said to reporters after the game. “We’re going to have to start to get some sticks on some of those pucks because both sides are contested. We just got to keep working to make our own puck luck out there.”

Gulutzan is right that the Stars need more puck luck, but they need Rantanen, Johnston, and Duchene to start creating more at five-on-five. Robertson can’t do it alone. If they don’t start generating more chances at five-on-five, the Wild may take the series.

Stars Still Dominating on Special Teams

Special teams have been a major factor in this series, and the Stars have had a significant advantage. They’ve scored eight power-play goals in this series and added another two in the Game 4 loss.

The Stars’ power play has looked all sorts of terrifying during this series. They’ve kept the Wild unbalanced, with Robertson and Rantanen causing all sorts of havoc. Rantanen has made some great plays to set up grade-A chances, with Robertson cashing in on some of those setups.

Duchene has played a significant part on the power play as well. He made a great pass to Heiskanen on the goal that gave the Stars a 2-1 lead. The Stars’ power play was one of the best in the NHL this season, and the Wild don’t seem to have any answers for it at the moment.

At the opposite end, the Stars’ penalty kill has been getting the job done, too. The Wild’s power play looked ugly in Game 4. Their decision-making was too slow, and the Stars took advantage by clearing the puck down the ice without much resistance.

Special teams can carry a team to a series win, but the Stars still need to begin capitalizing on what they’re creating at five-on-five. That could help them put the series away.

Quick Hits

• Nils Lundkvist was part of a scary moment when he took an inadvertent skate blade to the face. He appeared to have a nasty cut when he made his way to the bench. Hopefully, he’s OK and can play because he’s been one of the Stars’ best defensemen in this series. He was one of the stars of Game 3 and was playing well in Game 4 before leaving with the injury. Losing him would be significant.

• Jake Oettinger continues to play well in this series. Aside from Game 1, he’s kept the Stars in every game. He made 40 saves last night and ended up saving 1.14 goals above expected. He needs a bit more goal support, which is why the Stars need to get going at five-on-five. This series is there for the taking.

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