Welcome to the new NHL season, everyone. Training camps are underway, and players are beginning to take the ice for their first practices of the 2025-26 season. Every season, there are players due to break out, but what about those who could take a step back after career years? Here are 10 players who could regress after posting career-best numbers during the 2024-25 campaign.
Matthew Knies
Matthew Knies is an interesting case. At just 23, he still has room for development, but having shot just over 19 percent last season and losing frequent linemate Mitch Marner, maintaining last year’s scoring rates could be challenging. Auston Matthews remains a Toronto Maple Leaf, obviously, which may be crucial for Knies to keep up his production.
Knies and Matthews had an expected goals share (xG%) of 54 percent as linemates last season, but Knies’ xG% dropped to 49.62 percent away from Matthews. He’s not a play driver, so he’ll need to play with Matthews or John Tavares to maximize his output. Still, scoring 29 goals on 152 shots seems unlikely to happen again. He scored nearly six goals above expected at five-on-five, and while he’s a good player with room to improve, he’s likely a 20-goal scorer rather than a 30-goal one moving forward.
Aliaksei Protas
Let’s begin with Aliaksei Protas, the first of several Washington Capitals featured in this article. He had a breakout season in 2024–25 with 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games. Previously, Protas had totaled just 16 goals and 53 points over his first 169 NHL games, making his recent surge quite unexpected.
I don’t think Protas will fall to a 5-10 goal, 20-25 point scorer again, but much of his 2024-25 campaign looks unsustainable. He shot 21.6 percent, well above his career average of 11.6 percent, and scored nearly 10 goals above expected at all strengths. If he shoots 11 percent on 142 shots this season, that would be good for around 15-16 goals, which is where I expect his numbers to land. He’s a good player who improved his game last season, but I don’t see him repeating as a 30-goal, 66-point scorer.
Ryan McLeod
There’s a good argument that Ryan McLeod is one of the most underrated third-line centers in the NHL. Even through the Buffalo Sabres’ struggles last season, he still managed to collect 20 goals and 53 points in 79 games. Unfortunately for Sabres fans, McLeod repeating a 20-goal season seems unlikely unless his shot volume increases significantly.
McLeod scored 20 goals on just 97 shots on goal last season, a shooting percentage of 20.6 percent. Some players have the magic touch, but he’s never been an elite finisher. McLeod was an 11.9 percent shooter for his career prior to last season, and he averaged just 1.25 shots on goal per game. Odds are this goal-scoring will regress to the mean, and he’ll likely finish with around 10-12 goals and 30-35 points, closer to his career averages.
Morgan Geekie
Morgan Geekie had a breakout season with the Boston Bruins last season, totaling 33 goals and 57 points in 77 games. He was one of the few bright spots for the Bruins, but I’m not sure he can repeat that effort. He shot 22 percent, and tallied 26 goals on 15.1 expected goals at five-on-five. That discrepancy even widened at all strengths, as he scored 33 goals on 19.73 expected goals.
Some players consistently overperform their expected goals; David Pastrnak, Geekie’s teammate, would be a perfect example. But Geekie doesn’t have that kind of track record, so his overperformance does suggest a return to Earth may be in store. Like Protas, that doesn’t mean Geekie will turn into a pumpkin. He did total 17 goals and 39 points during the 2023-24 campaign, and that feels like a reasonable expectation for his output this coming season.
Tom Wilson
Now, let’s turn to Tom Wilson. Like Protas, Wilson posted a career year — 33 goals and 65 points in 81 games. His previous best was 24 goals and 58 points in 78 games during the 2021–22 campaign, so I probably wouldn’t bet on him repeating a 30-goal season.
One reason Wilson is primed for regression is due to his power-play production. He finished with 11 power-play goals last season, the most of his career. Before the 2024-25 campaign, the most he had ever scored on the man advantage in a season was five. He also shot 19.5 percent at all strengths, comfortably above his career average of 11.9 percent before the start of the 2024-25 campaign. I’d expect him to finish closer to 15-20 goals and 40-45 points this coming season.
Zach Werenski
Zach Werenski had a career year in 2024-25, totaling 23 goals and 82 points in 81 games, earning him a nomination for the Norris Trophy as the best defenseman in the NHL; he finished second to Cale Makar. The Columbus Blue Jackets would not have finished two points outside of a playoff spot without Werenski’s efforts, but I wouldn’t bank on him doing it again.
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Before last season, Werenski averaged 51 points per 82 games. His five-on-five production wasn’t over the top during the 2024-25 campaign, but he did have a career year on the power play. He finished with 25 points on the man advantage, the most he’s had in a season since his rookie year in 2016-17. Furthermore, 14 of his 25 power-play points were secondary assists, so there was a bit of flukiness to it. Generally speaking, amassing secondary assists isn’t particularly predictive of future scoring. The Blue Jackets, as a team, are due for some regression, and Werenski is no exception.
Brett Howden
After years of bottom-six production, Brett Howden had a breakout season of his own in 2024-25, totaling 23 goals and 40 points in 80 games. Early during the year, amid his breakout, the Vegas Golden Knights re-signed Howden to a five-year deal worth a total of $12.5 million. The dollar figure isn’t exorbitant, but they may regret the length of the contract.
As is the case with many players who have random breakout seasons in their mid to late 20s, Howden rode what seems to be an unsustainable shooting percentage to his 23 goals. He shot 18.4 percent, well above his career average of 11.5 percent coming into last season. Granted, his shot volume did increase, but he averaged 11 goals and 25 points per 82 games over his three prior seasons. That would be a reasonable baseline for his 2025-26 season.
Ryan Donato
Ryan Donato was one of the feel-good stories of the 2024-25 season. As a player who’s bounced around from team to team and has even had to take PTOs during previous offseasons, it was great to see him find a home with the Chicago Blackhawks. Though the team wasn’t any good, he still came away with an impressive 31 goals and 62 points in 80 games, shattering his previous career highs.
While it would be great to see Donato maintain those levels of production, it might be a long shot. For starters, he shot 17 percent, well above his career average of 9.7 percent coming into last season. He also scored 31 goals on 20.9 expected goals, so he overperformed his expected numbers by a decent margin. I don’t believe he’ll return to being a 10-goal, 25-30-point player again, but 20 goals and 40 points seem like a more reasonable expectation for the new season.
Pius Suter
Pius Suter has always been one of the more dependable bottom-six forwards, but he took his game to another level with the Vancouver Canucks last season. He totaled a career-high 25 goals and 46 points across 81 games, but those numbers were well above his career norms. He also shot 18.1 percent, above his career average of 11.7 percent coming into last season.
Suter’s overperformance wasn’t outrageous last season, as he totaled 25 goals on 18.73 expected goals. Still, I’d expect him to level off a bit. He averaged 16 goals and 34 points per 82 games coming into last season, so there’s a productive player with a solid resumé. He may regress, but the St. Louis Blues should still be getting a reliable third-line center who excels two ways.
Dylan Strome
One more Capital, because why not? Strome has become a legitimate top-line center since joining the Capitals three years ago, and he took his game to new heights last season. He finished with a career-high 29 goals and 83 points in 82 games and was a significant reason the Capitals won the Metropolitan Division by a wide margin.
Unlike most of the players listed here, Strome’s goal-scoring isn’t where he overperformed. His 29 goals were only slightly above his norms since joining the Capitals, so that seems like a repeatable effort. Where he may have had some fluky results was on the power play. Of his 25 assists, 15 of them were secondary, and his 34 power-play points bested his previous career-high by 12. I’m the least confident of Strome regressing from the three Capitals mentioned here, but a repeat 83-point season may be a tough ask.
Just because a player overperformed doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to drop off the following season. But given these NHLers’ career norms, they seem like the best bets to regress after beating out expectations a season ago.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
