NHL analyst Nick Kypreos reported earlier this week that he believes both Steve Lorentz and John Tavares will wait until the summer to sign an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
In his latest article for the Toronto Star, Kypreos wrote (‘The Leafs should learn from past contract mistakes, even with a ‘unicorn’ like Matthew Knies,’ Toronto Star, March 27, 2025):
“Sounds like pending unrestricted free agents John Tavares and Steven Lorentz will have to wait until the off-season for new contract offers from the Leafs if they are to stay,” Kypreos reported on Thursday. “Toronto’s top priority remains to leave enough space to either pay Mitch Marner or lure one or two players to adequately replace him.”
Maple Leafs Will Likely Sign Both Players This Summer
It’s no secret the Maple Leafs want to retain both Tavares and Lorentz. Both have been key contributors, albeit in vastly different ways. For Tavares, his impact has been evident since signing with the team in 2018. However, in recent years, there were questions about whether his time in Toronto would end after his seven-year contract. But after a strong performance this season, it’s clear the Leafs will offer him an extension. Given his deep-rooted love for the team, he will likely sign to ensure he retires as a Maple Leaf.
Lorentz, meanwhile, has made his mark through his relentless energy and defensive play rather than his offensive production. A hard-nosed forechecker and reliable fourth-liner, his willingness to do the dirty work has been invaluable. Given how openly he has expressed his love for playing in Toronto, it seems likely he will also re-sign.
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Tavares has exceeded expectations this season, posting 33 goals and 34 assists for 67 points in 65 games—a level of production many thought was behind him at this stage of his career. As for Lorentz, he has six goals and 10 assists for 16 points in 69 games, just three points shy of his career high. Given his steady presence in the bottom six, a return on a manageable contract makes sense.
Toronto’s Top Priority: Re-Signing Marner
In an ideal world, the Leafs would have already locked up both Mitch Marner and Tavares. However, with time running out, they must prioritize Marner before addressing other contract extensions. Marner remains one of the NHL’s elite playmakers, capable of producing 95–100 points per season while excelling in all situations. If the Leafs are going to keep him, they need to finalize an extension before focusing on other moves to ensure they have the necessary cap space.
If Marner does sign, his contract will likely be in the $96–$100 million range over eight years. That would put his AAV between $12–$12.5 million, making him the second-highest-paid Leaf behind Auston Matthews ($13.2M) while keeping an internal salary structure in place. As of now, Toronto is projected to have $27.5 million in cap space this summer. If Marner signs at $12.5 million per season, that would leave $15 million to fill out the rest of the roster, including deals for Tavares, Lorentz, and other potential free agents.
Replacing Marner Would Be Nearly Impossible
If the Leafs are forced to move on from Marner, finding a replacement won’t be easy—because, quite frankly, one doesn’t exist. Toronto could try to sign two players who combine for 50–75 points each at a similar cap hit. But Marner brings far more than just offensive numbers. He is the team’s best defensive forward, a key penalty killer, a top power-play contributor, and someone who logs big minutes in all situations.
If they were to attempt to replace him, these are some potential options:
- Brad Marchand – 21 G, 26 A, 47 P
- Sam Bennett – 23 G, 24 A, 47 P
- Brock Boeser – 23 G, 21 A, 44 P
- Nikolaj Ehlers – 24 G, 37 A, 61 P
The issue? None of these players come close to matching Marner’s all-around impact. In fact, the highest-scoring UFA this summer is Marner (88 points), followed by Tavares (67 points). With Mikko Rantanen now off the market after signing an extension with the Dallas Stars, there is simply no viable alternative to keeping Marner. If the Leafs were forced to trade him, they would need to execute a blockbuster move similar to Brad Treliving’s Matthew Tkachuk trade while he was with Calgary.
If waiting until summer to re-sign Tavares and Lorentz ensures the Leafs can secure Marner first, then it’s a move they must make. It’s also important to remember that “summer” doesn’t necessarily mean July 1st. It could mean the NHL Draft, the day after the Stanley Cup is awarded, or right up until June 30 at 11:59 p.m.
Marner has made it clear that he wants to remain a Leaf for life. Now, it’s just a matter of trust—trust in the organization to get a deal done and trust that Marner’s commitment to the team will result in an extension. For now, all Leafs fans can do is take a deep breath and wait.
