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Canadiens Should Still Avoid Lightning in Round 1 if Possible

In the moment, Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper definitely appeared meme-worthy. Think something along the lines of “scenes that precede unfortunate events.”

Seconds before Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky scored the late game-winning 2-1 goal on Thursday, Cooper had been caught on camera prematurely celebrating. While no one should blame him for being happy after Bolts defenseman Darren Raddysh tied a critical game that will go a long way to determining the two teams’ playoff positions, the way he went about it was cause for ridicule, especially in light of what transpired almost immediately thereafter.

Karma Gets the Best of Cooper, Lightning

The way Cooper pumped his first in the air and seemed to mouth some weird hybrid of “bang” and “pow…” it was all so infuriating in the moment if you were a Canadiens fan, but hilarious in retrospect. Karma certainly came back to bite both him and Raddysh, who had been just as guilty, banging the glass like he was an ill-behaved child, emphasis on the word “child,” at the aquarium and barking at fans immediately after scoring his goal.

Jon Cooper Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper – (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Put yourself in the skates of a Canadiens fan for just a moment (if you’re not one already). For Slafkovsky, who seemed to jaw at the Lightning bench himself after scoring, to presumably wipe the smiles off their faces, you have to believe it was just so incredibly satisfying, similar in sensation to after Game 3 of Round 1 last year. If you’ll remember, that was when the Canadiens decisively beat the Washington Capitals to get back in the series, after forward Tom Wilson was similarly caught on camera doing his best crybaby impression following an end-of-period skirmish with Hab Josh Anderson that escalated off the ice into the bench.

Anderson was front and centre on Thursday again, as, minus the unfortunate game-tying tally, the Canadiens put together one of their best performances of the season in just about every way. It goes beyond Cole Caufield scoring his 50th goal of the season, as incredible an achievement as that is. It’s not even in reference to how they held the Lightning in check to the tune of just 18 shots on goal. It’s more in reference to the 126 total penalties in minutes. As good as the Lightning gave physically during the game and between whistles, the Habs gave back, undeterred.

Lightning Remain Stanley Cup Contenders

This was the second straight win over the Lightning, arguably the third straight the Canadiens outplayed the Bolts, to the point it appears they’re ready for the first-round series against their Atlantic Division rivals that appears incredibly likely to come to fruition. Don’t kid yourself, though. As much of a jester Cooper appeared in the moment, he, a two-time Stanley Cup champion, including in 2021 over the Habs, is no fool. Big picture, like after Thursday’s game, talking to the media about the seven power plays his team gave up, he knows what he’s doing.

To be perfectly objective, the Lightning appeared ill-prepared for Thursday’s game. That’s to a degree on Cooper. However, he’ll have learned his lesson were a first-round series between the two teams to materialize. That’s evident in his clear gamesmanship, an arguable attempt to appeal to the referees by playing the victim, when the Bolts are clearly no such thing.

True, the Lightning have made first-round exits the last three seasons, but they’re not push-overs. In fact, based on how the Canadiens have gotten by them just by the skin of their teeth in the aforementioned two straight wins… and lost 6-1 to them on Dec. 9, it’s clear they shouldn’t resign themselves to settling for them as opponents, when they’re 1-3 against them in all-time playoff series and would have to face superstar Nikita Kucherov, who, in scoring 128 points, has put together another Hart Memorial Trophy-winning season, and the dominant 6-foot-4 Andrei Vasilevskiy in net (223 pounds). The hated Boston Bruins, against whom the Habs have a much more palatable 25-9 playoff record, would be much more of a favourable match-up.

Don’t look at it as avoiding the Lightning, as the character-limited headline above implies. Look at it as earning the chance to play the Bruins. It just so happens, making the Bruins, who seem entrenched in the first wild-card position, a reality in Round 1 aligns with the Canadiens winning the Atlantic, which should be the goal. It’s still a quasi-realistic one to achieve too… especially after the hard-fought win over the Bolts a few nights ago.

Related: Canadiens’ 5 Likeliest First-Round Opponents in 2026 Playoffs

Trailing the division-leading Buffalo Sabres by two points, the Canadiens simply need at least one more point in the standings than them following their last three games of the regular season, starting with the Columbus Blue Jackets Saturday night. Seeing as the Sabres only have two games remaining (Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars), it’s certainly possible. So is a series against the Sabres themselves, if they stumble and the Lightning for all intents and purposes run the table over their three remaining games. However, the likeliest outcome of them all is for the Canadiens and Lightning to renew hostilities, and there are plenty to go around after Thursday.

Canadiens Playoff-Ready for Come What May

In the lead-up to clinching a playoff post, it was clear the Canadiens let their collective foot off the pedal, which to their credit still yielded an overall 4-1 record so far this month. Thankfully, they woke up in time to lead-foot it against the Lightning.

There’s no reason to believe the Lightning, who have now lost all three games on their current road trip, failed to understand the assignment heading in or ramifications of falling to the Canadiens in Thursday’s game. So, the home side simply beat the Lightning on their own merits. They were the better team, hands down.

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It gives the sense the Canadiens are playoff-ready for all intents and purposes, and, following last year’s first-round loss, relatively playoff-tested. One however also gets the sense they’ve won one battle when the war looms large, similar to Game 3 last season. As satisfying as it would be for fans to continue to beat the Lightning into emotional submission, lead them to the precipice with a fourth-straight first-round defeat and push them off into oblivion, in the form of eventual long-lasting irrelevance, they still look every bit the part of Stanley Cup contenders they did in 2021.

Are the Canadiens? Perhaps. There’s no rule that says they need to travel the path of greatest resistance en route to a record 25th Cup, though. That’s the whole point of winning the division. It was the whole point of winning on Thursday too. They were fighting, even if only for home-ice advantage, to make life easier on themselves later, regardless of the message they sent with the victory.

It goes something like this: “If we need to, we can take you.” They don’t need to, though. At least not in Round 1, if they can help it.