The Florida Panthers are back in the Stanley Cup for the second consecutive year, and this time around, they’re entering it in much better health than a year ago. They have a tall task ahead of them in Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers, but there’s no reason to think they can’t bring the Cup home to Florida for the first time in franchise history.
The Oilers Haven’t Quite Been Themselves at 5-on-5
Whether it was the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins or New York Rangers, the Panthers had at least a modest five-on-five advantage over each team. And in the case of the Lightning and Rangers, it was much more than modest. Will that be the case against the Oilers, too?
The Oilers finished the regular season with a 57.09 expected goals share (xG%), ranked first in the NHL. They averaged 3.2 expected goals per 60 minutes, also ranked first league-wide, so they were generating a ton of quality looks at five-on-five.
One would have thought that’d carry into the playoffs, especially with a team that has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl driving so much play. But the Oilers have struggled at five-on-five during the postseason, totaling an xG% of just 49.5 percent. They’ve only been generating 2.4 expected goals per 60, so those quality chances they were creating during the regular season have disappeared.
Related: Stanley Cup Final Key: Oilers’ Special Teams vs. Panthers’ Physicality
It’s not like we’re talking small sample sizes anymore because it’s the playoffs. The Oilers have played 18 games to get to this point, so that’s enough of a resumé to suggest that their five-on-five struggles should be a point of concern for them heading into the Final against the Panthers.
It should also be a concern because, just like they were during the regular season, the Panthers have been dominant at five-on-five. They have a 55.02 xG%, and they’ve been getting it done with excellent two-way play. They’re generating 2.66 expected goals per 60 while only allowing 2.17 per 60 defensively.
That should be a key matchup in this series. The Panthers’ five-on-five defense has been superb, while the Oilers have struggled to generate quality looks at that game state during the postseason. If the Panthers continue to stifle the Oilers’ offense, that could lead them to victory.
What’s also intriguing about this matchup is the Panthers and Oilers have contrasting styles. The Panthers can play off the rush, but they’re more of a forecheck and cycle team that likes to wear down their opponents. That’s how they eliminated the Rangers in six games. Meanwhile, the Oilers want to play with pace and skill, so it’ll be interesting to see which style wins out.
Panthers Must Neutralize the Oilers’ Power Play
So, after all that, it looks like the Panthers probably have another relatively significant advantage at five-on-five over their opponent. History suggests that will lead to a positive outcome, but don’t think this series will be a cakewalk because of that. The Oilers may not be creating offense like they were at five-on-five during the regular season, but their great eraser is an elite power play.
The Oilers have been converting on a remarkable 37.3 percent of their power plays this postseason. That essentially makes up for their regression at five-on-five, and it’s not like their power play has been getting lucky, either. They are generating a ton of quality looks while up a man, averaging 13.29 expected goals per 60.
For context’s sake, the Panthers’ power play ranks second in xG creation during the playoffs, averaging 9.84 xGs per 60. But that’s still a significant gap between the two team’s power-play units. The Panthers will probably have their hands full with the Oilers’ power play, but their series against the Rangers should have them feeling confident they can handle the task.
The Rangers came into the Eastern Conference Final with one of the hottest power plays in the NHL during the postseason. It was their bread and butter during the regular season and a significant reason why they overachieved some of their middling five-on-five results in 2023-24. But the Panthers eliminated the Rangers’ biggest weapon, holding them to 1/15 on the man advantage.
Had the Rangers’ power play gotten hot and produced like it did all season, the Panthers would probably be golfing now. This will also be a key to them ending the Oilers’ season without a Cup. If Edmonton converts on over 30 percent of their man advantages in the Final, the Panthers are probably not winning the Stanley Cup.
The good news is the Panthers’ penalty kill has been fantastic all postseason long, killing 88.2 percent of the power plays they’ve faced. Likewise, the Oilers are 28 for their last 28 on the penalty kill and have killed 93.9 percent of the power plays they’ve faced. The law of averages says they’re due to give up some power-play goals, which could be huge for the Panthers.
If Paul Maurice’s team can score some power-play goals on the Oilers’ penalty kill that might be due to give some up, it will go a long way toward them securing their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. That’s especially true if they neutralize Edmonton’s power play, too.
Goaltending: Does Anyone Have an Advantage?
How confident should Panthers fans be in Sergei Bobrovsky? Likewise, how confident should Oilers fans be in Stuart Skinner? Bobrovsky was nominated for the Vezina Trophy after having a terrific regular season, but he’s been beatable in the playoffs.
Bobrovsky has a .908 save percentage and has saved 4.8 goals above expected during the postseason. He’s been above average during the playoffs but not close to his regular-season levels. The Panthers have only needed him to be above average through three rounds because they heavily outshot and out-chanced their opponents most nights.
While there’s a decent chance they can outplay the Oilers at five-on-five, they still have elite finishers in McDavid, Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman. Even Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been chipping in, and don’t discount Evan Bouchard’s scoring ability, either. Oh, and did I mention the Oilers’ white-hot power play? They will still get their fair share of quality chances, so Bobrovsky will likely need to be a bit better than above average for the Panthers.
Or will he need to be that much better? Skinner has been a wild card this postseason. He was awful in the Oilers’ series against the Vancouver Canucks, getting benched in favor of Calvin Pickard for a couple of games. That reset seemed to help Skinner, though. He played better in the final two games of the Canucks series, and he was very good against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final.
Since that benching against the Canucks, Skinner has a .919 SV% across his last eight starts. In the playoffs overall, he’s saved 2.1 goals above expected. If he plays as he has the previous eight games, Bobrovsky will probably need to be a little better than above average for the Panthers to win the series.
At least for me, goaltending is the most fascinating part of this year’s Stanley Cup Final. Skinner has gone through the motions but is playing better, while Bobrovsky hasn’t had to face talents like McDavid, Draisaitl and even Hyman. It’ll be very interesting to see how this unfolds.
Players/Matchups to Watch
Barkov vs. McDavid
It’s easy to say that the Panthers should be keeping an eye on McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman because, duh. But one matchup that should be fascinating is Aleksander Barkov vs. McDavid. We know Maurice will try to get Barkov’s unit out against McDavid as often as possible, and understandably so.
Barkov has essentially shut down every opponent’s top players through three rounds of the playoffs, but can he do it again? He won the Selke Trophy for a reason, but McDavid will pose the most difficult challenge yet. If he at least neutralizes McDavid, you have to think the Panthers will have good odds of claiming the Cup.
Gustav Forsling
Gustav Forsling was fantastic in the Eastern Conference Final, spending most of his time against Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider and keeping them off the scoresheet. One would have to think he will also get plenty of minutes against McDavid, but it’s not just the defensive aspect where Forsling has contributed. He’s scored some timely goals this postseason, too. The Panthers will probably need a couple of those from him against the Oilers.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
We know who’s likely to do the most damage for the Oilers, but the Panthers need to be aware of when Nugent-Hopkins is on the ice. He’s been excellent these playoffs, totaling six goals and 20 points in 18 games. Four of his six goals have come on the power play, so that’ll be an area where the Panthers need to pay extra attention to him if they want to shut down the Oilers’ man advantage.
Prediction
This is a difficult series to predict because the two teams are pretty different. Based on how the postseason has gone, the Panthers have the edge at five-on-five, but the Oilers’ power play can negate that advantage. Will Skinner continue his strong play? Or will he turn into a pumpkin again? If he does continue playing well, can Bobrovsky up his game?
There’s been plenty of talk about the Panthers’ physicality and how that’ll pose problems for the Oilers. It might, especially if they wear down the Oilers as they did to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. And for me, that might be what tilts the ice in favor of the Panthers.
The Panthers were one of the best third-period teams in the NHL during the regular season, which has continued in the playoffs. They’ve worn down their opponents time and time again to make the Final, and that’s what might put them over the edge this year. It should be a close and tightly contested series, but the Panthers might have a bit more depth to help them claim their first Cup.
Panthers in 7
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