Never say never, but with the way Matvei Michkov has been trending scoring-wise, winning the Calder Trophy in a historically tight 2024-25 race seems unlikely. He has two points in his last 12 games, which is currently the most gloomy stretch of his NHL career. With fellow rookies Macklin Celebrini and Lane Hutson rising and being lineup staples to boot, Michkov’s declining usage isn’t helping (under 16 minutes of ice time per game since November).
Related: Making the Case for Each 2024-25 Calder Trophy Contender
Focusing on the Calder Trophy creates negative discourse around Michkov. It’s an award many expected him to win and he’s falling behind in the race. However, the 20-year-old Russian is doing anything but underperforming. In fact, his trajectory is superstar-like.
First and Foremost: Michkov Is Getting Unlucky
What’s important to understand about Michkov is that he’s perhaps the unluckiest player in the NHL right now. Let’s apply some numbers to that.
Key statistics to look at for luck are on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) and individual points percentage (IPP). The former tracks a team’s shooting percentage while a player is on the ice. Puck luck is one of the most random elements in hockey—short-term shooting percentage is hardly indicative of good performance. Similarly, IPP is a luck-based metric. The number is found by dividing a player’s total points by the amount of goals they are on the ice for. It’s not uncommon for someone to be a big reason a goal was scored yet not get rewarded with a point.
Per Natural Stat Trick, Michkov has been one of the better forwards in the league at generating scoring chances over his last 12 contests. Producing a solid amount of expected goals per 60 minutes (3.55) and individual expected goals per 60 minutes (1.26) since Dec. 12, he should also have the scoring to back that up. But he doesn’t. With a league-worst oiSH% among forwards with 175 minutes of ice time in that span and a below-average IPP, that’ll do it:
Among the 204 forwards with 175+ minutes of ice time since December 12th (per NST):
— Justin Giampietro (@justingiam) January 8, 2025
Matvei Michkov is 78th in expected goals/60 and 29th in individual expected goals/60.
But 202nd in goals/60 and 171st in individual goals/60.
oiSH% = 4.17% (Last)
IPP = 50% (T-159th)
If you just look at points, Michkov isn’t playing well. It’s hard to argue otherwise. However, watching the games, you’ll see that he’s ironically improving on his chance generation. The only problem is that he hasn’t had any puck luck to go along with it. With the rest of January, February, March, and half of April remaining for him to turn it around this season, odds are that he will. His dry spell won’t hold up forever—that’s a guarantee.
Michkov & Draisaitl Had Similar Numbers at This Stage
It’s important to account for Michkov being one of the unluckiest players in the league over a decent chunk of his season because it makes this comparison even more impressive. When he was also 20 years old, the third-overall pick of the 2014 NHL Draft, Leon Draisaitl, had mostly identical numbers to the seventh-overall pick of the 2023 NHL Draft.
If you aren’t familiar, Draisaitl is arguably the best player in the world right now. The Edmonton Oilers forward is an offensive machine, much like Michkov, whose combination of playmaking, dominance on the wall, and efficient shooting makes him unstoppable.
In 2015-16, his second season after being drafted by the Oilers, Draisaitl scored 51 points in 72 games. Michkov is also two seasons removed from his draft selection by the Flyers, and he has 29 points in 39 games. That needs further context, though. Those are two different time periods and points alone don’t always tell the full story.
Using Evolving-Hockey’s data, their numbers can be dissected a bit further. We find that they are—in my eyes—the closest match on record, going back to the 2007-08 season. Take a look at how they compare percentile-wise (with the criteria being forwards with 200 minutes of ice time):
| Stat; Draft-Plus-Two Season | Matvei Michkov (Percentile) | Leon Draisaitl (Percentile) |
| Goals Per 60 | 1.12 (75th) | 0.88 (70th) |
| Primary Assists Per 60 | 0.93 (78th) | 0.74 (75th) |
| Points Per 60 | 2.71 (82nd) | 2.35 (83rd) |
| Expected Goal Share (5-on-5) | 56.78% (89th) | 53.47% (78th) |
| Expected Goals For Per 60 (5-on-5) | 3.07 (89th) | 2.72 (92nd) |
In their early careers, Michkov and Draisaitl look about the same. Both were highly-touted prospects, too, so it’s not as though the comparison is dishonest. These are two 20-year-old offensive catalysts.
Draisaitl isn’t the only player who Michkov aligns with scoring-wise. The sixth pick of the 2016 NHL Draft, Matthew Tkachuk, was also in the 82nd percentile for points per 60 in his draft-plus-two season (2017-18). Draisaitl had his first 100-point campaign at the age of 23, truly cementing himself as a superstar, while Tkachuk did it when he was 24. That could be a potential timeline for Michkov, but that’s far from conclusive (and probably jumping the gun, too).
It’s easy to look at his scoring drought and say Michkov isn’t living up to expectations. But the truth is that he is on his way to becoming one of the top players in the NHL. His production is elite for someone his age, and still, it’s likely that things will only improve from here.
