Heading into last season, it would have been bold to predict that Mathew Barzal would score at a point-per-game pace. But it happened, with 23 goals and 57 assists in 80 games. It was also bold, albeit not as much, to predict Ilya Sorokin to win the Vezina Trophy, but that prediction aged poorly.
Related: Islanders’ Offseason Moves: Lamoriello Pivoted But Didn’t Change
The New York Islanders head into the season with mostly the same roster. That said, a lot of variables will determine how the season plays out. It leaves us with the opportunity to make a few bold predictions, starting with a skater everyone expects to have a great campaign, but the question is how great will it be?
Dobson Scores 20 Goals
There are two possible bold predictions for Noah Dobson. Either he wins the Norris Trophy, or he scores a ton of goals. The trophy is a stretch, but scoring 20 goals is within reason – even if his career high is 13. As the Islanders’ top defenseman, he’s set up to have a career-best season.
Dobson is a great playmaker, but he must take on a more active shooting role in 2024-25. He gets plenty of open looks from the point but tends to look for the open skater near the net rather than firing the puck. This season, he must use the wrister that will make him a dynamic scorer.
After scoring 13 goals in 2021-22 and 2022-23, Dobson only scored 10 last season (with a career-high 60 assists). He’s a restricted free agent (RFA) at the end of the season and looking for a long-term deal with a high average annual value (AAV) and he has the opportunity to bet big on himself. He can continue to be a great passer, but he must find the back of the net more often to become a 20-goal scorer, and he will do it.
Islanders Allow Under 2.60 Goals Per Game
If the Islanders had allowed under 2.60 goals per game last season, they would have been a top-five defense. Heading into this season, the Islanders can have one of the best defenses in the NHL, especially with Patrick Roy behind the bench and the new system he’s implemented. The last time they allowed under 2.60 goals per game for a full season was in 2020-21, so it’s been a while since the blue line was dominant. Yet, all the pieces are in place to reach that mark this season.
The defensive unit must bounce back after a forgettable 2023-24. If it does, the Islanders will be a more potent team in their own end. Under Roy, they will limit shots and easy scoring chances from the opposition. Dobson, Alexander Romanov, Adam Pelech, and Ryan Pulock have the talent to stifle any offense, and under Roy’s system, their goalies should easily close out games.
That means, for the Islanders’ defense to be successful, a lot will depend on the Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov duo. Last season proved that Sorokin, while talented, can’t be overworked and needs Varlamov to start a significant number of games to keep both goaltenders fresh. If Roy deploys the two correctly, the Islanders will have one of the best defenses in the league, and they average less than 2.60 goals against per game.
Patrick Roy Wins the Jack Adams Award
It’s hard to call this a bold prediction since it can easily happen if all the pieces fall into place. Roy winning the Jack Adams Award would be a testament to how well he coached the Islanders but also to how the award is handed out. The award isn’t given to the best coach per se as much as it’s awarded to a coach that takes a team that isn’t expected to do well and overachieves. The Islanders are projected to be a good not great team and if they are great, that’s where Roy comes into play.
He was hired in the middle of last season and was asked to quickly turn the team around (which he did). Now, Roy has a full offseason and training camp with the Islanders. They can buy into his style and kick off the ground running to become one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. If that happens, Roy will be on the shortlist for the award.
The question is what Roy brings to the table that will make him a favorite to win the Jack Adams? How will he upgrade the Islanders to a point where it will be his award for the taking? He will have the team playing balanced and structured hockey with disciplined play in all three zones. The Islanders might not blow out a lot of opponents throughout the season but they will look like a great team across the board and the credit will be given to Roy.
Horvat Leads The Islanders in Goals & Scores 40+
Bo Horvat was close to leading the team with 33 goals last season, while Brock Nelson led the team with 34. So, this prediction isn’t too bold. However, I predict Horvat, who has never scored 40 in a season, will eclipse that mark and lead the team in goals.
Horvat had a big bounce-back campaign in 2023-24. He found open looks and took advantage, often by finding shooting lanes in the middle of the offensive zone. He’ll be on the top line again and have plenty of opportunities to find the back of the net. Horvat has a great shot and is particularly strong scoring off of quick passes. A 40-goal season is within reach for an elite scorer in his prime.
Barzal & Duclair Combine For 50 Goals
Anthony Duclair was acquired this offseason to round out the top line. He’s bounced around, but at 28 years old, he’s poised for a big season and proved he can be both a great playmaker and finisher. With Barzal on the other wing, this duo will have a special season together.
Fifty goals from the two isn’t crazy. Barzal is a solid passer but proved last season that he can be a great scorer as well, scoring 23 goals with a more aggressive approach in the offensive zone. Barzal can score 25 or 30 by himself. The only question is if Duclair can take advantage of the open looks on the wing that will be provided to him. If he does, the duo will score 50 goals and lead one of the best offenses in the NHL.
Other Bold Islanders Predictions
At this point, the Islanders are used to a quiet trade deadline. It’s why General Manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello making a splash would be a shock. It’s unlikely he will acquire Mitch Marner or Mikko Rantanen, but Nikolaj Ehlers or defenseman Jakob Chychrun are both reasonable targets.
The Islanders also have the players in place to have a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense. Last season, they ranked in the bottom half in both categories, but if Roy balances out the team and the depth steps up, both units will stand out.
The other bold prediction is the one fans have been hoping for since 1983. That’s to see the Islanders win the Stanley Cup title. It’s been four decades since their last championship, and much of the fanbase doesn’t remember the dynasty years. It’s a long shot, but the hope is that this team can bring the Cup back to Long Island in 2024-25.
