The New York Islanders have made a bold move by signing Anthony Duclair early in free agency, but it probably won’t change the dynamic for the hockey club. The former 2013 third-round pick fills a big need for the team, as he can not only put the puck in the back of the net – but bring a speed element the organization has been lacking.
Giving Duclair a four-year deal worth $3.5 million per season is a good bet for president and general manager Lou Lamoriello. By the time the contract ends, the Quebec, Canadian native will be only 32 and should remain in the prime of his career. Plus, the cap hit is great value for a player who if not on the first line will be able to slot somewhere in the top six. He has registered at least 20 goals in four of his seasons in the NHL, and could potentially unlock more production by playing next to Mathew Barzal.
The Move Does Not Make Islanders a Contender
While there are no issues with the player and the value, not much in terms of expectations will likely change for the Islanders going into 2024-25. They weren’t a contender last season and adding Duclair isn’t a move that wows. It makes the Islanders better and they could potentially finish higher in the standings this upcoming regular season compared with 2023-24. But it’s still hard to take them seriously as a playoff team.
Duclair isn’t an elite player, he’s just a good one. The move isn’t the difference maker that will make the Islanders a contender with the Florida Panthers or even the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference. Instead of clearing cap space for more of a game-changer like Jake Guentzel or trading for Nikolaj Ehlers, Lamoriello went with an economical choice, instead of spending $6 million to $10 million in average annual value (AAV). But in doing so, the 81-year-old sacrificed adding a potential star on Long Island.
The Core Issue With the Islanders
In the past three seasons, there are multiple reasons why the Islanders have combined for just three playoff wins. Production relating to multiple veterans on the roster such as Anders Lee, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau has dipped. To give confidence to fans, one of Lamoriello’s jobs this offseason was to find a way to move a bad contract to clear cap space for a star-scoring winger. So far he’s failed there.
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Duclar’s salary isn’t an issue alone, but combined with Lee’s, it accounts for $10.5 million against the cap. For context, Mitch Marner’s 2024-25 cap hit will be just over $10.9 million. So the optics look poor when looking at it from that perspective.
As of right now, it appears almost the same cast will be coming back for 2024-25, plus Duclair. Also, it’s not like the Islanders are loaded with high-end NHL-ready prospects. New 2024 first-round pick Cole Eiserman will need multiple years at least to develop his game, and top prospect Ruslan Iskhakov could be Kontinental Hockey League-bound.
The Islanders are probably in the same situation as the Washington Capitals, who secured the final Metropolitan Division spot to squeak into the playoffs last season just to get swept in the first round. But the Capitals were active this offseason and added several new faces including Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Jakob Chychrun, and Matt Roy. So you could make the argument they are better than the Islanders going into this season. Things are only going to get tougher in 2024-25.
The Islanders will hope that goaltender Ilya Sorokin will be a difference-maker to help the Islanders go deep in the playoffs this season. If not, there’s always the trade deadline, assuming the team is still in the race. But Lamoriello’s options might be limited with cap space going forward. The organization has just over $1 million to work with for 2024-25, according to PuckPedia.
So yes, the Islanders are a better team with Duclair – but nothing drastically will change until Lamoriello moves on from some of his core players. He will also need to add a legit star winger at some point.
