Pierre LeBrun reported last week that Brock Nelson will likely test out free agency. Ideally, the New York Islanders sign him this summer to a long-term deal and allow him to retire with the team he was drafted by. However, it looks like Nelson will be on his way out instead, especially if the season continues to unravel for the Islanders, who are 14-16-7 and near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division.
Related: Islanders Not Trading Nelson & Palmieri Would Prove Disastrous
There will be a long list of teams that will pursue Nelson if he’s placed on the trade block. He’s a great scorer and a second-line center so he’s an ideal player to add in a push for the Stanley Cup. At the same time, he won’t be moved at the trade deadline. Islanders’ general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello won’t wait that long.
Lamoriello Operates on His Own Schedule
Lamoriello is a unique GM, and the oldest in the league is one of a kind. He’s unpredictable and there’s no telling what move he’ll make or what he’s up to. One thing can be predicted based on Lamoriello’s history; he will make a move early if needed and won’t wait until it’s too late.
Lamoriello doesn’t wait to make a big move and it’s why his splashes (albeit a rarity) have happened well before the trade deadline. He acquired Bo Horvat during the 2023 All-Star Break when the Islanders were sputtering and needed a spark. He fired Lane Lambert in January last season and hired Patrick Roy to turn the season around. When a move must be made, he won’t wait around.
If a Nelson trade is on the table and it gives the Islanders a great haul, Lamoriello will make it happen. Yes, he hopes to avoid rebuilds or trading players away in the middle of the season but this time things are different. It’s a matter of time before the Islanders will have to trade players to help them in the future and Lamoriello will get to work early on making the deals happen.
The Best Return Is Earlier
The second Nelson’s name was mentioned in trade rumors, his value started to decline. Like any star player who can be traded, the longer the team waits, the lesser of a return they will receive (it’s like buying a used car, for those of us who’ve made that mistake in the past). By the time the trade deadline rolls around, it’s a buyer’s market and Nelson will likely be moved for pennies on the dollar.
Lamoriello will look for a good return for Nelson and the earlier he moves the forward, the more likely he’ll receive a good haul. A lot of the teams looking to add a star player will look to land and insert them into the lineup sooner rather than later. It’s the extra weeks if not a month before the trade deadline that makes Nelson all the more valuable and will allow the Islanders to land an extra piece in a deal.
Lamoriello Eventually Will Make a Decision on This Roster
The Islanders are stumbling and playing terrible hockey as of late. They’ve won only five of their last 10 games and for every 6-3 win (which they had on Dec. 21 against the Toronto Maple Leafs) there’s a 7-1 loss (which they had on Dec. 23 against the Buffalo Sabres). Usually, Lamoriello would wait until this team gets back on track but this season, he must make a big move to help them in the long run.
Trading Nelson helps this team retool. The move will give the Islanders a great return and they can contend as early as next season. A Kyle Palmieri move would also help the cause as he’s also heading to free agency and can allow the Islanders to receive a decent return. That said, a Nelson deal helps this team the most. He’s their most valuable trade asset and one they must move to get back on track.
What the Islanders Can Receive in a Return
Ideally, the Islanders get three pieces back in a Nelson trade. Horvat was dealt for three in 2023 and Elias Lindholm was moved from the Calgary Flames to the Vancouver Canucks in the 2023-24 season for five pieces. If Lamoriello moves Nelson early, he can get three pieces with two of them being prospects and the third a second or third-round draft selection.
That said, it’s more likely the Islanders will land two pieces in a deal, even if it’s an early trade. Whether it’s two prospects or a prospect and a draft selection, it will help the Islanders out. This team is aging and declining, making a retool or a small move to help add youth to the lineup a must. The Nelson trade can make that happen.
