One way or another, the Colorado Avalanche will start the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs with a rematch. The Avalanche clinched a postseason berth with a recent win against the Columbus Blue Jackets, and are virtually locked into third place in the Central Division with 100 points in 79 games. They hold a nine-point lead on the Minnesota Wild (with one more game played) in the first wild card and a seven-point lead on the St. Louis Blues (even on games played) in the second, with both teams now unable to make up the difference.
The picture ahead of them is nearly concrete, with the division-leading Winnipeg Jets (110 points with four games remaining) out of reach with the Avalanche only able to earn a maximum of 106 points if they win all three of their remaining games. With 106 points in 78 games, the Dallas Stars only need a single point to put themselves out of reach of the Avalanche and solidify home-ice advantage in Round 1.
What remains undecided is who the Avalanche will play in Round 1. The Jets have a four-point cushion between them and the Stars for the division lead, though the two are scheduled to face off once more before the regular season is over (April 10). Either scenario is still in play for the Avalanche, and neither opponent looks to be a pushover come playoff time.
Potential Playoff Matchup: Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg holds the edge in the season series, winning three out of four games against the Avalanche with a goal differential of plus-2. The Jets are also the favorite for the Presidents’ Trophy, holding a three-point lead over the Washington Capitals who have five games remaining on their schedule.
The Jets have been dominant all season, ranking fourth in the NHL in goals per game (3.4), second in power play efficiency (29.3%) and first in goals-against per game (2.33), goal differential (plus-83), and team save percentage (.914 SV%). By any measure, they look like the team to beat in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Where the uncertainty creeps in is that the Jets were also one of the best teams last season, but fell short in Round 1 against these very Avalanche. They were tied for fourth in points (110) as well as being first in goals-against per game (2.43) and SV% (.918). The Avalanche were by no means a wallflower with 50 wins and 107 points last season, but the Jets were formidable.
After losing a wild first game 7-6, the Avalanche stormed back with four straight wins and outscored the Jets by a 25-8 margin. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck looked like a shell of the man who won the 2024 Vezina Trophy and was outdueled by an inconsistent Alexandar Georgiev.
Hellebuyck has turned the page on that playoff outing with a league-leading .924 SV% in 60 games this season and another Vezina win likely on the way, but his career playoff numbers (.911 SV% in 45 games) are not as pristine. Whether he can regain that mental edge will be crucial in determining who advances to Round 2.
Potential Playoff Matchup: Dallas Stars
The Avalanche’s other potential playoff opponent (and the more likely of the two) is the Stars, who beat them 4-2 in the second round last season. Colorado has gotten the better of the Stars this season with two wins in three games (plus-2 goal differential), but Dallas has consistently neutered their game plan in the postseason.
The Avalanche would have to win their remaining three games in regulation, while the Stars would have to lose their last four games in regulation for Colorado to earn home-ice advantage. It’s best to assume that the Avalanche will begin their first-round series as an underdog on the road.
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While the Stars (first in points percentage since Jan. 1) and the Avalanche (fifth) have both been among the best teams over the second half of the season, the Avalanche have been a touch better since the March 7 trade deadline. They have won 11 of 16 games since then with a goal differential of plus-21, while Dallas has only won nine of 16 with a plus-13 goal differential.
The effect of recency bias can take away from the larger full-season sample, but the Avalanche completely revamped their team at the deadline and barely resemble the team they were in January, let alone in October. The presence of former teammate Mikko Rantanen could serve as additional motivation, and add more bad blood to an already heated rivalry.
The Stars will also likely be without star defenseman Miro Heiskanen in Round 1 due to a knee injury. Losing their top defender makes it much more difficult for head coach Pete DeBoer to shut down Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, and could easily tilt the series in Colorado’s favor. The depth behind Esa Lindell and Thomas Harley is not great, and the rest of the Stars’ blue line could be exposed in short order, as has been evident in recent losses. Which Central Division heavyweight is healthier might decide the winner of the series.
Avalanche Face Tough Playoff Path No Matter the Opponent
Regardless of who the Avalanche eventually line up against in Round 1, they will be the underdog. The Jets and the Stars have both been among the league’s best teams since the start of the season, and both will likely have home-ice advantage in the first round.
The Avalanche can be confident in being a new and more complete team after the deadline and with previously injured players returning to the lineup (Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin), so the outcome might not be as straightforward as it currently appears. Who would be the better first-round matchup?
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and the NHL.
