For the third time in the last five seasons, the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars will be facing off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Last season the Golden Knights eliminated the Stars in the Western Conference Final in six games, and in 2020 the Stars defeated the Golden Knights in five games in the Western Conference Final. This is the first time they will face off in the opening round.
The Golden Knights swept the season series 3-0, outscoring the Stars 11-4 in the process. However, all three of those games were played in the opening half of the season, where the Golden Knights were a drastically different team.
They started out the season with an 11-0-1 record, but injuries to Adin Hill, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone impacted their ability to maintain that hot streak. Even after an impressive trade deadline, the Golden Knights rarely showed signs of being the dominant force that they were at the start of the season. They finished in the second wild card spot in the Western Conference after winning the Pacific Division title in 2022-23.
Related: 3 Biggest Golden Knights Factors vs. Stars in Round 1
As for the Stars, they’re entering the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 17 of their last 21 games and finishing first in the Central Division. Since March 1 they’ve averaged 3.70 goals for per-game (4th), while only giving up an average of 2.30 goals against per-game (2nd), giving the Stars the second-best goal differential in the league (plus-28).
While the Stars have become a remarkably strong defensive team at even strength, especially after acquiring Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames, a lot of their recent success has come from the play of Jake Oettinger. Since Feb. 1, he has put together a 19-5-2 record with a .911 save percentage (SV%), a 2.39 goals-against average (GAA), and two shutouts.
Get Healthy
Golden Knights general manager (GM) Kelly McCrimmon provided some clarity on some of the injured players ahead of their final practice at home Saturday afternoon before heading to Dallas.
Alex Pietrangelo missed the last seven games of the season after having an appendectomy, but was a full participant in practice. After a few days of practicing in a non-contact jersey, Stone is now cleared for contact and they will continue to monitor his progress ahead of Game 1. Anthony Mantha practiced on Saturday with a red no-contact jersey, while William Carrier was also a full participant in practice.
These were the lines that the Golden Knights were running at practice, with Marchessault sitting out and getting a rest day:
Barbashev-Eichel-Amadio
Stephenson-Hertl-Stone
Dorofeyev-Karlsson-Howden
Carrier-Roy-Kolesar
Hanifin-Pietrangelo
McNabb-Theodore
Hague-Whitecloud
While the team hasn’t officially ruled anyone in or out, the time they have missed and the severity of their injuries suggests that they likely won’t be at 100 percent. Any version of them in the lineup gives the Golden Knights a boost, but it’s doubtful that they’ll make as big of an impact as they would at their best.
Shut Down the Stars’ Third Line
The Stars are built similarly to how the Golden Knights were last season, with their offensive depth being a huge point of emphasis.
With a breakout season from Wyatt Johnston, the Stars’ third line is talented enough to play top-six minutes. Johnston put up 32 goals and 65 points in the regular season and is slotted alongside Jamie Benn and rookie Logan Stankoven. Benn provides a calming veteran presence for his young linemates and makes the Stars’ offense so much more dangerous by being shifted down.
The biggest factor in defending this line is going to be William Karlsson, who is one of the most underrated defensive centres in the NHL. He just scored 30 goals and had 60 points, which is the most he’s had since his first season with the Golden Knights, and finished with a career-best 2.14 expected goals against (xGA/60).
Karlsson’s linemates, Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden, aren’t exactly known for their defensive prowess, but if Mantha can return for this series at some point he’ll likely replace one of them, giving the Golden Knights a much stronger two-way option.
Physically Dominate the Stars
Playoff hockey always has an elevated level of physicality. While it can be overvalued at times, the massive advantage that the Golden Knights have had in hits (2,019-1,458) and blocks (1,506-1,225) over the Stars this season is hard to overlook.
This played a key role in their regular season matchups as well. In their three games, the Golden Knights combined to out-hit the Stars 98-63 and had a 54-36 advantage in blocked shots. These two teams consistently manage to play each other closely, and these physical factors could give the Golden Knights the edge they need to find success.
This is where players like Keegan Kolesar, Brayden McNabb, and Alec Martinez are going to have the biggest impact. Finishing checks, clearing out the front of the net, and being aggressive in puck battles are going to be the best ways for the Golden Knights to wear down the Stars over the length of the series.
Final Thoughts
The Golden Knights’ path through the Western Conference is extremely tough, and the Stars are without a doubt the best first round opponent they have ever come up against. With the Stars’ dynamic offensive lineup and an elite goaltending presence, the Golden Knights are going to have their hands full.
Logan Thompson is projected to be the Golden Knights’ starter for Game 1, but will likely have a short leash if things go awry. Adin Hill has proven that he can take over games in the postseason, but his absence from the lineup and poor play in the second half of the season has left the team with a lot of uncertainties.
Out of all the first round series, this one is the most intriguing. Both of these teams have the talent and experience to make a deep playoff run, and the unfortunate reality is that the defending Stanley Cup champions could be the ones who get sent home early.