The Tampa Bay Lightning are in fifth place in the Atlantic Division and are one spot out of a wild-card spot. The good news for the Lightning is that they have a few games in hand on teams ahead of them in the playoffs. The other potentially good news is that the Lightning’s three out of the next four games are against teams just ahead of them in the standings.
Heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the Lightning will host back-to-back games against the Ottawa Senators before traveling to face the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens. Those three games’ results will go a long way toward determining if the Lightning is truly a playoff-caliber team and may also decide which direction the team takes going into the 2025 Trade Deadline on March 7.
Related: Lightning Need to Target Scoring Depth at the Trade Deadline
The Lightning are coming off a brutal stretch of games in January where they played 14 games i 24 days. It is no wonder that the Lightning went 7-9-1 in January and saw their once top-level offensive production drop down to just an average of 2.6 goals per game since Dec. 29. Now it is up to head coach Jon Cooper to figure out how to get the Lightning to be more productive in these last four games leading up to a break.
One of the biggest issues with the Lightning is scoring depth. The drop-off from the top six to the third and fourth lines has been quite noticeable and has been one of the reasons for the lack of offense. The Lightning have brought up a few prospects from Syracuse in the American Hockey League to mix and match with some veterans to help the bottom-six get untracked.
Whatever Cooper decides to do with his lineup, this is what the Lightning will be looking at with their next three opponents.
Back-to-Back With Ottawa
The Senators went 4-0-0 in their last homestand, concluding with a 6-0 drubbing of the Minnesota Wild. The biggest news out of that game in how the Sens responded when the Wilds’ Ryan Hartman took a major penalty for an attempt to injure when he shoved Tim Stutzle’s face into the ice off a faceoff in the final minute of play of the second. The Senators responded by scoring three times on the ensuing power play in the third.
While the Senators will be without Nick Cousins for six to eight weeks after knee surgery, they did get some good news that goaltender Linus Ullmark could return very soon. He missed his 17th-straight game on Saturday with a back injury he suffered in a game on Dec. 22 but is slated to accompany the team on their road trip to Nashville, Tampa, and Florida. The 31-year-old may get the start against Nashville on Monday (Feb. 3), and he fully intends to play for Sweden in the Four Nations Face-Off.
The Lightning will catch a small break as the Senators will travel to take on the Nashville Predators on Monday (Feb 4) before facing the Lightning the following night. The Lightning will need every advantage they can muster to face the confident Senators, who have reached the 60-point mark in 52 games, the fewest they’ve required in order to reach the mark since the 2016-17 season (49 games).
Detroit Red Wings
After their 3-2 overtime victory on Sunday (Feb. 2), the Red Wings are now 14-4-1 since hiring Todd McLellan as head coach on Dec. 26. They are currently on a six-game winning streak behind Alex DeBrincat’s four goals and Dylan Larkin’s six points. Goalie Cam Talbot has won four games in a row with a .957 save percentage. Acquiring DeBrincat has worked very well for the Red Wings as he has 50 goals in 135 games with the club and is the fastest player to reach that mark with the team since Brett Hull did it in 130 games.
In addition, Patrick Kane returned to the lineup after missing five games with an upper-body injury. The 36-year-old winger has 11 goals and 19 assists this season. This is a team firing on all cylinders, and if the Lightning does not do something to reverse their fortunes, the Red Wings’ recent vault into a playoff spot over the Lightning could become permanent.
Montreal Canadiens
The Lightnings’ final game before the 4 Nations Face-off will be a road contest against the Montreal Canadiens. After the Canadiens’ 3-2 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday (Feb. 2), the Habs have now lost five straight. They took the lead for only the second time during the five-game skid but could not respond to the Ducks’ raised desperation and blew a two-goal lead. It will also be an interesting side note to see if the drastic reduction of ice time for Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook, and Kirby Dach in the third period of that game will have a residual effect the rest of the week before the Lightning come to town.
Coming off a difficult January schedule with a less-than-ideal record was somewhat expected. However, being in a tenuous playoff position makes it critical for the Lightning to rebound, play their brand of hockey, and keep themselves in playoff position before many of the players get a well-deserved break.
