The Toronto Maple Leafs have seen a revolving door of defenseman within their top-four. Even with names like Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev to provide stability as a second pairing in the past, it wasn’t enough as their defensive deficiencies caught up to them.
With the acquisition of Jake Muzzin in 2019 and Justin Holl seeing regular minutes since 2019-20, there was potential for them to be a steady, shut-down defensive pairing. While they have shown their strengths, their defensive play has been very suspect at times. And when the errors mount up, the criticism comes out in full force.
Muzzin and Holl are key pieces to the Maple Leafs defense, but when the mistakes mount, that becomes a problem for a team that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2003-04. The consistency needs to be there as they have proven that they can be reliable as the pairing have played well at the start the season. As the season unfolds, general manager Kyle Dubas should consider all options, whether to keep them together and hope they can be consistent or to improve the pair, especially on the right side.
Up and Down Play Remains a Concern
The Muzzin and Holl pairing have been very polarizing for the last few seasons. There are games where you see good in them, like the physicality that Muzzin brought against the Washington Capitals- and the shut-down style of play that is going to be key in critical points in the game. Holl does a great job of getting into the lanes and blocking shots as he had a number of great blocks on Ovechkin at the end of the game.
The strength between the two also lies in their abilities to break up plays. Cam Charron, a former analyst for the Maple Leafs, has been tracking games and the pairing have done well at denying zone entries in the games they played. Against the Canadiens, there were only four controlled entries on 10 attempts between the two and against the Capitals there were seven on 15. Even against the Ottawa Senators, the pairing, particularly Holl, stood out.
Muzzin and Holl have been great in those situations. They have the size advantage to keep attacking forwards to the outside and the reach in order to disrupt control of the puck on their stick. That alone is a reason to suggest that they should be garnering a lot of minutes and the tough competition that comes with it.
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Then there’s the bad. Despite having good shut down numbers in the season opener against the Canadiens, they made some poor decisions in their end. There were costly turnovers and bad clearing attempts like Muzzin did on Anderson’s game winning goal. The same can be said with Holl as he has made plenty of questionable decisions. We see bad pinches from Holl ultimately leading to odd man rushes and players scrambling to cover. Yet, he has been inconsistent many times as he’s out of position and doesn’t possess the best strength in front of the net to tie players up.
As we’ve seen from the games following the loss to the Canadiens, when Muzzin and Holl are dialed in, they’re an effective shutdown tandem. But when they’re not, you may have to look to other options internally to try and find that consistency. Should you keep them together regardless of outcome? Or let them try to build off their chemistry as they appear to be on track. It’s hard to determine as sometimes they’re great or they’re highly inconsistent and can ultimately be the deciding factor of a win or loss. No matter what, head coach Sheldon Keefe always had faith in the two, despite the mistakes that piled on. (from ‘Keefe’s faith in separated Muzzin, Holl remains as Leafs D-men look to rebound’, The Toronto Sun – 12/10/21)
And there was reason to suggest that they were still productive at five-on-five last season. Even at points when Muzzin and Holl were split up, it was the best thing, as both benefitted from it.
| Statistics | Muzzin with Holl | Muzzin without Holl | Holl without Muzzin |
| CF% | 50.06 | 54.06 | 55.03 |
| xGF% | 53.34 | 48.64 | 51.98 |
| SCF% | 52.19 | 53 | 55.61 |
Both saw decent production with and without each other as the pairing, as they’ve been above average most of the time. Even with egregious errors, turnovers, like in the Stanley Cup playoffs with Holl, they were still productive when the eye test may not show it. Again, it all comes down to consistency between the two.
The pairing continues to be a strange enigma. On nights, they showcase what makes them great. At other times, it leaves you scratching your head as to what they were doing on a specific play. Muzzin can be consistent like he was upon returning from his second concussion last season and Holl can be dependable at certain points.
What to do With the Pairing?
If Keefe needs to make a change to the Muzzin-Holl pairing they do have options. When Holl was scratched for a stretch of games last season, it led to Liljegren getting a look in the top-four. Liljegren is clearly more mobile and has more offensive upside than Holl and having his two-way presence could be a boost to Muzzin’s consistency in his overall game as well.
There’s also the play of Rasmus Sandin as he’s been getting looks on the right side. After missing some time with the contract negotiations, he played very well on the opposite side. If he plays well on the right side, with his improved strength and more experience under his belt in the NHL, he could be another option as he looks to take the next step and be a top-four defender.
While finding other players to insert into that role might have its positives for both players, the other main concern would be Muzzin’s long-term health. If he is healthy and back to form as we saw during the final stretch and playoffs, then things can work out. But if he’s dealing with concussions and other injuries, then there would be a cause for concern as one of your top minute eaters would be out.
If they do remain together, it wouldn’t also hurt to drop them as the third pairing. As a result, you may get more balance of offense and defense from the likes of Mark Giordano, Liljegren and Sandin in a top-four role. The other option would be to improve the second pairing.
Second Pairing Shakeup?
Despite showing the promise of the pairing being a real shutdown threat, the inconsistencies keep getting in the way of that. If this pairing continues to have hit or miss games this season like last, then Dubas should think about upgrading his second unit.
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Last season it was evident that the Maple Leafs lacked skill on the right-hand side of their defense unit. With Holl becoming a pending unrestricted free agent and a $2 million cap hit, it would give them more flexibility to move and bring in a player that can play the right side, if Liljegren and Sandin still aren’t ready.
The Maple Leafs have inquired about Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun– who have softened their price tag– a left shot who has played the right side as well. While more space needs to be made for his $4.6 million cap hit, he’s exactly what they need in a player that can push the offense but still play with the edge that Muzzin has.
If not Holl, could Muzzin’s salary be moved to make way for a bigger deal and bring in a steady and healthy top-four defender? With his recent health concerns, it wouldn’t hurt to explore that option.
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The Muzzin-Holl pairing is a very polarizing pairing for the Maple Leafs. They have shown that they can be a reliable shut-down pairing in the past, though there have been stretches where defensive lapses have been a glaring problem for them. This is the season where they need to be at their best. Otherwise, it would be another trade deadline where defense is the priority to find balance and stability.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Cam Charron.
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