Maple Leafs Selecting McKenna First Overall Is Obvious Choice, But Don’t Count Out Stenberg

Coming into the NHL Draft Lottery, many were just hoping that the Toronto Maple Leafs would find the luck needed to retain their first-round pick by staying at fifth overall. That alone would’ve been an ideal scenario in a season where a lot went wrong considering the conditions that were tied to that pick where they would give it up to the Boston Bruins if they fell to sixth.

Well, luck was definitely on their side as the Maple Leafs not only secured their first-round pick, but the first overall selection. Given how the new tenure with John Chayka and Mats Sundin got off to a rocky start, this is the ideal situation for the team to retool quicker and get back to being a playoff team by getting a game-changing prospect in Penn State forward Gavin McKenna.  

While he is the top prize and the Maple Leafs really shouldn’t overthink this, you have to wonder about another prospect as well.

What Maple Leafs Are Getting With McKenna

In short, the Maple Leafs are getting an elite-level playmaker and offensive dynamo that projects to be a top line producer. It’s one aspect that the team lacked and failed to address with the absence of Mitch Marner to play alongside Auston Matthews. McKenna could be that player to open things up and make it easier for him.

After a dominant 129-point season in 2024-25 where he won the Western Hockey League championship with the Medicine Hat Tigers, McKenna made the jump to the NCAA to further his development and challenge himself. It was definitely a step up and the transition was tough for him. While he was producing very well, some aspects of his game were lagging behind as a result of his jump to tougher competition. The skill vision and puck skills shined, but many scouts were left wanting more as the compete, awareness and off puck play was inconsistent and he wasn’t pushing the middle like he used to. 

After being productive at the World Junior Championship with 14 points in seven games, McKenna really popped off production wise when he returned as he found his game that many were anticipating to see. The progression showed as he was constantly dictating and controlling the pace of play intently, was more impactful and assertive in being involved with the play and showing better awareness without the puck. He would finish fifth overall among NCAA players with 51 points in 35 games leading his team in scoring. 

There’s no denying it, McKenna is an elite-level playmaker with outstanding vision to scan passing lanes, pace and puck control. He has the best skillset and offensive vision in this draft class, seeing plays and creating them well in advance. He’s extremely deceptive, dynamic and unpredictable with the puck, fooling defenders easily. He’s a tremendous skater and his speed alone allows him to open things when he pushes defenders back. He can quickly turn on a dime with his edge-work in tight and his hands allow him to manoeuvre flawlessly through traffic to find those open spaces. 

The comparable to his game are Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov and it’s hard to not see. His skillset was miles above his teammates as he was playing at break neck speed and they had a hard time keeping up. He’s an underrated shooter as he has decent accuracy and power, it’s something that will allow him to be a dual offensive threat. Marner would pass up shooting opportunities, but McKenna isn’t afraid of taking those chances. 

The strengths to his game are off the charts and a clear reason why he’s the top prospect in this draft. While there could be concerns still with his engagement at times, he has improved and is more comfortable in that area. This season was a challenge for him and he was up to it to better himself as a prospect. It wasn’t going to be perfect on most nights, but when McKenna found his game, he was tough to stop. He needs to add more muscle and there’s going to be a learning process, but the potential for him remains sky high. 

Don’t Count Out Stenberg

In all likelihood, it’s very likely that McKenna is the one to hear his name called when the Maple Leafs send the pick in. But what about the top European ranked skater in Ivar Stenberg? He challenged McKenna from when the puck dropped in the SHL and at one point surpassed him in overall rankings. 

Stenberg had a phenomenal season as an 18-year-old in the SHL. He had 33 points in 43 games and added another four assists in six playoff games. At one point, he was on-pace to match the Sedin twins as the top producing draft-eligible players in that league. Stenberg ultimately finished fourth overall with a 0.76 point per game pace. 

That isn’t something that can be overlooked as he dominated and held his own against senior competition. He has a lot of pro qualities when it comes to his ability to battle in the tough areas, non-stop work ethic and overall complete game. Let’s not forget that he dominated his age group as well, helping Sweden secure a gold medal at the WJC and stepped up in key moments during the semi-final and gold medal games. Yes, McKenna was more productive, but Stenberg was more impactful at the tournament.

It’s been a tough debate all season between the two, but ultimately, McKenna pulled back ahead as the top prospect. Stenberg has a chance to not go quietly as he will suit up for Sweden at the World Hockey Championship. If he does well there like he has all season, then this could make an interesting discussion.