The Toronto Maple Leafs will be seen as contenders this season. Whether they can take the next step and find success in the playoffs remains to be seen, but the organization is going into the 2024-25 campaign with a sense they can jump that hurdle, even with most of the same forward core from a year before. To say a retool isn’t on their mind is putting it mildly.
But, what happens if the Leafs get out of the starting blocks slowly? What if key stars take a bit of a step back or their newly-formed blue line doesn’t do what Brad Treliving and the front office hoped it would? What if the goaltending tandem of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll isn’t experienced enough to keep pace? Essentially, what if the Shanaplan is finally exposed and the franchise is forced to make a change in a market where results mean almost everything?
Realizing some readers might suggest I’m being excessively pessimistic, this article examines the idea that the Leafs might be stuck. There are a few tradeable names on the roster. More than that, far too many players control their fate for the Maple Leafs to undergo a serious retool, should they want to.
Big Contracts With Trade Clauses
The first factor to consider is that the Leafs put most of their eggs in one basket. It’s a topic that has been covered to death, but the fact Toronto has given nearly 54% of this year’s salary cap to four players is an issue. What makes matters more complicated is that all four of those players control whether they are moved or not.
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Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner all have full no-move clauses. Each has said they want to be in Toronto, and while it’s not known what would change their minds, a retool probably isn’t enough. On the blue line, Morgan Rielly has a full no-move that includes a modified no-trade that begins in 2028-29. Chris Tanev was also given a no-move clause when he signed this offseason.
Max Domi was given a modified no-trade, as was David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok. On defense, Oliver Ekman-Larsson was given a modified no-trade, as were both goaltenders (even though they don’t kick in right away).
Frankly, it would take some time to find players on this roster who don’t have clauses that give them some degree of control in trade discussions. That seriously hand-ties the Maple Leafs.
Those Who Can Be Moved Won’t Make a Dent
Assuming all of the players with no-trades and no-moves decide to exercise the clauses in their agreements, the players who the Leafs could use as trade bait aren’t exactly needle-movers. That’s a problem for any team that wants to make serious changes.
Ryan Reaves could be dealt, but teams aren’t exactly lining up to acquire a tough guy who doesn’t provide much else, makes too much for too many seasons, and isn’t an NHL regular. The Leafs knew they were likely stuck with this player and gave him too big a contract anyway.
Nick Robertson actually wants to be traded and could be, but the Leafs aren’t sure what the return would be and the organization is being kind of stubborn about things. He’s got a higher ceiling than some, but the window to get the most out of this trade has probably passed, especially since other teams have a keen awareness Robertson isn’t happy.
Timothy Liljegren is a trade piece, but how much can he actually get in return? In a rebuild, a decent pick. In a retool? That’s harder to say.
The Handful Of Players The Leafs Would Keep in a Retool
The rest of the group the Leafs might consider using as trade pieces are players the team might want to keep if they go scorched earth. Bobby McMann seems to be a piece that might garner a nice return, but he’s inexpensive and productive. Matthew Knies might be one of the future core pieces of this roster and the Leafs would be out of their mind to move him. The return would have to be incredible.
It would also be pointless in a retool/rebuild to move pieces like Easton Cowan, Franser Minten, or some of the prospects the Leafs have coming up on defense.
All of this is evidence that the Leafs have made their bed and they’re going to have to lay in it. Unless someone with a no-move comes to the organization and leads the charge on a trade (which seems unlikely), or the organization lets everyone know they are going full rebuild (also unlikely), this roster is pretty much set and they’ll have little choice but find a way to win.