As the preseason winds to a close and we anxiously await the start of the regular season, we wanted to look at how the competition for the Toronto Maple Leafs stacks up in the Atlantic Division. Who is better and who is worse? Can we expect any of the bottom four teams to challenge the top four for a playoff spot?
Florida Panthers Review
The Panthers made one of the biggest splashes in the offseason when they acquired Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames in return for Jonathon Huberdeau, Mackenzie Weegar, a prospect (Cole Schwindt), and a conditional first-round pick.
Related: Predicting the Maple Leafs & Atlantic Division Final Standings
We aren’t really sure if the trade actually improved the team or not. Tkachuk adds 42 goals and 104 points along with a lot of physicality and character to the Panthers. But, Florida gave up 38 goals and 159 points to get him.
They also gave up a top-four defenseman in Weegar. After Aaron Ekblad, the Panther’s defense drops off big time. Not only do their #2 to #6 defensemen not look great on paper, but if they have to dig into their depth beyond that, it could get ugly.
They also changed coaches. While interim coach Andrew Brunette did a stellar job when Joel Quenneville was forced to resign as part of the Chicago Blackhawks’ Kyle Beach scandal, the Panthers still didn’t think he performed well enough to allow him to keep the head coaching job. Instead, they hired Paul Maurice to replace him.
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While Maurice has had some success in his career, he has never hoisted a Stanley Cup as a head coach. In fact, after he was replaced as head coach of the Carolina Hurricane at the end of the 2004 season, new coach Peter Laviolette took the Hurricane all the way the following season.
At the very least there are questions as to whether the coaching change is an improvement.
We expect the Panthers to regress from the 122 points they earned last season. How much they regress is yet to be seen. They should be able to outscore their deficiencies on defense.
Related: Florida Panthers and the History of the Rats
We still see them as a 100-point team. We just aren’t sure they are much more than that.
Tampa Bay Lightning Review
The Tampa Bay Lightning have not made many changes this offseason. As in previous seasons, they have had to divest themselves of some talent due to salary-cap constraints, the damage appears to be minimal this time.
Their biggest change will be the loss of defenseman Ryan McDonagh, who they traded to the Nashville Predators for defenseman Phillippe Myers and forward Grant Mismash. We certainly don’t expect Myers, who played on the Predators’ third pair, to replace McDonagh. Cal Foote could be the player they hope can do that.
As insurance, the Lightning also signed UFA Ian Cole to a one-year $3 million contract.
Tampa Bay also lost Ondrej Palat to free agency. Palat, who scored 11 goals and 21 points in 23 playoff games for the Lightning on their run to the Stanley Cup final, will be missed. The team reacquired their former first-round pick in the 2011 entry draft Vladislav Namestnikov hoping he can fill the departing Palat’s role.
While both of these moves most likely weaken the Lightning somewhat, their main core of Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, and Brayden Point remains the same.
If the Lightning do regress in 2022-23 we don’t see it being by that much. They are still a hundred-plus point team.
Boston Bruins Review
The Boston Bruins’ biggest move this offseason was re-signing Patrice Bergeron to a one-year deal that comes with a cap hit of only $2.5 million for this season. However, that signing could cost them up to another $2.5 million on salary-cap space in 2023-24 due to performance bonuses.
Related: NHL’s Top 5 Defenses
They then convinced David Krejci to return to the fold with a one-year $1 million deal. Their only other significant move was to trade forward Erik Haula to the New Jersey Devils for forward Pavel Zacha. Otherwise, this team is much the same as it was last season.
Their biggest question will be whether or not 37-year-old Bergeron and 34-year-old Brad Marchand can continue to perform at the same level as they have in the past.
We can see the Bruins holding steady or declining slightly from their 107 point finish last season.
Ottawa Senators Review
The Senators big splashes in the summer were trading draft picks for 41 goal-scorer Alex DeBrincat and signing Claude Giroux as a UFA. While at 34 Giroux could be a little long in the tooth as an elite player, he could be a great mentor for the young talented forwards while chipping in 20 goals and 50-60 points himself.
DeBrincat and Giroux join a very talented young group of forwards in Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, and Shane Pinto.
Related: The Ottawa Senators and the Promise of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft
The biggest question for the Senators this season will be their defense and goaltending. The team is hoping young prospect Jake Sanderson can step into a full-time role with the team. Other than that, their backend remains much the same. Cam Talbot replaces Matt Murray which could be a step up.
While we see the Senators taking a big step forward this season, we don’t see them taking a 27-point step, which is how far they were out of a playoff spot in 2021-22.
Detroit Red Wings Review
Similar to the Ottawa Senators, Detroit general manager Steve Yzerman added some veteran players to supplement his strong young core.
The Red Wings’ biggest additions are defensemen Ben Chiarot and Ollie Matta on the back end and center Andrew Copp on the front. They join Calder winner Mortiz Seider and Calder finalist Lucas Raymond along with hopeful Simon Edvinsson.
Like the Senators, the Red Wing’s biggest problems last season was preventing goals. The additions of Chariot, Matta, and rookie Edvinsson, along with newly-acquired goalie Ville Husso should go a long way to helping them in that area.
Buffalo Sabres Review
The Buffalo Sabres didn’t make many moves in the offseason. They appear to be relying more on the advancement of their young players like Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Calder candidate Jack Quinn.
They did sign Ilya Lyubushkin with the hopes he can fill a top-four role and brought in goaltender Eric Comrie to shore up the net.
Last season the departure of Jack Eichel seemed to give the Sabres some life. If they can carry that energy over to this season, we can see the team having a slight improvement from last season. They will still be far from a playoff contender.
Montreal Canadiens Review
We think the 2022-23 winter will be a long cold one for Montreal Canadiens’ fans. The team had a dismal .335 winning percentage last season and finished last in the NHL. The Canadiens won the first overall pick in the 2022 entry draft.
Related: 7 Cool Things About Carey Price
Like the old Herman’s Hermit’s song “Henry the VIII,” the line “Second Verse, Same as the First” comes to mind. The Canadiens could be heading for a repeat of last season as they appear to be in full rebuild mode.
Overall Atlantic Division Prognosis
Overall we think the Atlantic Division will tighten this season. The question is by how much? The top four teams in the Atlantic won a total of 214 games and had a total of 454 points. The bottom four teams won 119 games and 277 points. That is a massive difference of 95 wins and 177 points.
While we can see the bottom four teams winning more games against the top four, and keeping in mind that for every point a bottom team wins a top team must lose, we can’t see any of Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo, or Montreal improving enough to make them playoff contenders.
The Senators and Red Wings could be longshots. We don’t think the Sabres or Canadiens have much of a chance.
That leaves the Maple Leafs battling it out more for positioning in the playoffs as opposed to fighting for an actual playoff spot. We expect the competition to be close. The Maple Leafs should be carried by Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and others. They are likely not to have trouble making the postseason.
Now that we’ve looked at the Maple Leafs’ competition in the Atlantic Division, next time we will examine the Maple Leafs themselves.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
