With exactly two weeks off in between NHL games, the 4 Nations Face-Off break has given the Toronto Maple Leafs plenty of time to rest and re-focus (unless your name is Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner or William Nylander) ahead of the regular season’s final 27-game push.
Let’s face it. Some players need it. The Maple Leafs, winners of three of their last four and holding the No. 2 spot in the Atlantic Division with 68 points, are in fine shape. However, if they want to chase down the Florida Panthers for the top seed and round into playoff mode in the final third of the season, Toronto will need everyone to start playing up to their potential.
“Playing up to their potential” doesn’t mean that Ryan Reaves needs to become a 30-goal scorer or that Pontus Holmberg suddenly transforms into the third-line centre of the club’s dreams. Instead, these three Maple Leafs could help their team by overcoming a disappointing first half and getting their game in order.
Auston Matthews
Seeing Auston Matthews in this spot would have been unthinkable a year ago. Even now, 20 goals and 45 points in 40 games is nothing to scoff at, particularly for a player who has battled injury for much of the season. Even still, these were far from the numbers expected of the superstar centre.
Matthews’ mysterious ailment has been one of the biggest stories surrounding the club to date. That storyline has quieted in the past month as he’s returned to the lineup and has managed to remain healthy. It will get an awful lot louder, however, if any subsequent injury complications arise during the club’s late-season push for a division title, especially given the 27-year-old’s decision to represent Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
But even aside from concerns about another injury flare-up for Matthews, there’s still the fact that he hasn’t rounded back into his typical dominant form. After kicking off his return with nine goals in his first 10 games back, he has gone goalless over his last six contests. Sure, seven assists in his past four games is a nice surprise, but it’s hardly his bread and butter. Health has been the story of Matthews’ first half and will continue to be an area of concern, but the Maple Leafs could also use their captain scoring at a greater clip than his current one-goal-in-two-games pace.
Morgan Rielly
The Maple Leafs’ four-game Western swing heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off break was a welcome stretch. While it ended with a tough 2-1 loss to the Vancouver Canucks, it produced three wins and six points, pulling the club out of the funk that had yielded six losses in their previous nine games. The effect those four games had on Morgan Rielly was equally significant.
Rielly had a goal and three assists while hitting the scoresheet in each one, a notable development for a defenceman whose prior 18 games had reaped that same production. Perhaps the 30-year-old was rejuvenated by being closer to home (he’s from Vancouver), as he posted a plus-3 rating against the Calgary Flames, blocked seven shots over the four games and generally looked like Toronto’s top blueliner.
Looking past the 4 Nations Face-Off, Rielly’s mini-renaissance offers hope that he can salvage a 2024-25 season in which the longest-tenured Maple Leaf simply hasn’t been good enough. With six goals and 26 points through 55 games, he’s well off his scoring pace of recent seasons. He’s also sporting a minus-15 rating, which would be his lowest mark since 2016-17. Moreover, he has struggled to gel with Chris Tanev or Oliver Ekman-Larsson as his new defensive partner.
The Maple Leafs’ defence has been good enough this season to at least somewhat offset a struggling Rielly. That said, getting the Rielly of the past four games could help strengthen the club’s offensive output from the back end while improving the overall unit.
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Max Domi
Max Domi’s struggles this season have become so pronounced that the 29-year-old’s name is now being floated in trade rumours. This is a remarkable and unfortunate turn-around for a player who inked a four-year, $15 million extension with the Maple Leafs just eight months ago.
Fresh off his new contract, Domi was tabbed as the club’s No. 3 centre to start the season. Since then, he has managed just three goals and 20 points in 47 games and the third line’s struggles have sparked what appears to be an aggressive, focused pursuit of another centre ahead of the March 8 trade deadline. Head coach Craig Berube has since slotted Pontus Holmberg into the third-line centre role while moving Domi up to the right side of the No. 1 line alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies. The line juggling, however, has yet to yield encouraging results.
Domi’s struggles are a problem in the short- and long-term. The Maple Leafs will almost surely be forced to pay a high cost to add a player to fill the role they thought they were paying him $3.75 million for. Then there’s the matter of what to do with a contract that a) has three years and $11.25 million remaining on it past this season and b) could impede the pursuit of the aforementioned No. 3 centre. While there’s probably nothing he can do now to eliminate the need for a centre at the trade deadline, there’s still a lot that the second-generation Maple Leaf could resolve by elevating his level of play.
While the Maple Leafs are in a fairly healthy position at the 4 Nations Face-Off break, there remains plenty to fight for over the final 27 games. From catching the Panthers to at least securing home-ice advantage to building some pre-playoff momentum, there’s a lot still on the line. The status quo up to this point has been perfectly sufficient, but a boost in the form of enhanced production from any (or all) of Matthews, Rielly and Domi could be invaluable.
