The New York Islanders entered the offseason with clear goals for each position group. Forwards needed a top-six forward and multiple bottom-six forwards, the defense needed to get healthy, and goaltending needed to forget about last season. While the defense and goaltending issues were addressed, the forward core still needs to add a top-six forward.
Islanders Need Another Scorer
The Islanders’ real issue is a lack of a fourth true offensive threat. The team had just three forwards score north of 55 points last season. The Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers had four, the Presidents Trophy-winning New York Rangers had five, the Stanley Cup-runner-up Edmonton Oilers had four, the Western Conference regular season winner Dallas Stars had five, and the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights had four en route to their Stanley Cup victory.
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Of course, there is no winning formula to winning a Stanley Cup, but there is a strong correlation between successful teams and having deep forward cores. In fact, the last Stanley Cup-winning team to have less than four 55+ point forwards in the regular season was the 2019 Stanley Cup-winning St. Louis Blues (2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons prorated to 82-game production given shortened seasons).
The Islanders have defenseman Noah Dobson who had 70 points last season, but that does not deter the team’s need for a fourth 55+ point forward. Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson are very strong, but there is a significant gap between the three of them and the second tier of Kyle Palmieri, Anthony Duclair, and Anders Lee. By adding a fourth forward with a 65+ point upside and a 55-point floor into the forward core, the Islanders would become true Stanley Cup contenders.
Who Fills the Need?
The first and most obvious candidate to fill this need is Nikolaj Ehlers of the Winnipeg Jets. Not much needs to be said about Ehlers given his popularity among Islanders fans this offseason. The 28-year-old winger has been in trade rumors following his 25-goal, 61-point performance. With just one year left on his $6 million salary, the Jets may be willing to part ways at the right price.
The Islanders would need to shed salary to make a deal work, but Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield are candidates to be shipped. As well, the Jets could retain salary to make a deal work, and the Islanders have nearly all of their future draft capital to put up the appropriate value.
Another player who could fill this need is Patrik Laine. The 26-year-old forward has 54 goals and 117 points across his past 129 games and is looking to suit up elsewhere this season. He was recently cleared from the player’s assistance program with the Columbus Blue Jackets. His $8.7 million annual average would not fit on Long Island without retention, but that does not mean the Islanders should not make a deal happen.
Laine would not only be an offensive threat but also an elite scoring threat. He has a career-high of 44 goals, and his 14.7% career shooting percentage would bode very well in the Islanders’ top six. A deal would contain similar assets to an Ehlers deal with the ultimate package coming down to Columbus’ willingness to retain salary. A deal would likely land on a conditional draft pick, Pageau or Lee, Oliver Wahlstrom, and a prospect.
The Islanders could also wait to see how this season begins, and that may be for the best. Currently, more than 20 teams believe they are Stanley Cup contenders, but that is bound to change. Teams like the Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, Minnesota Wild, and others believe they could make a run in the playoffs, but a 30-40 game sample size could make their front offices turn to sellers.
When January arrives, general manager Lou Lamoriello can evaluate if this hypothesis holds true and, if it does, pursue a trade for a forward. Waiting also prevents the Islanders from making a major trade only to miss the playoffs. However, one thing is for sure, and it is that the current roster is not where it needs to be to win a Stanley Cup. Whether it is one piece or multiple pieces away is unknown, but more moves are absolutely necessary to ensure this season does not lead to earlier than anticipated tee times on the golf course.
