During the next three seasons, the Ottawa Senators face the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup since their last appearance in a championship series in 2007. For those counting, that’s 18 long, agonizing years ago.
The odds of any team winning a Stanley Cup are long at best – just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs who haven’t have a whiff of Lord Stanley’s hardware in 58 seasons setting an NHL record for the longest Stanley Cup drought in league history. Even so, there is reason for the Senators’ faithful to believe that they’ll see a Stanley Cup parade up Elgin Street before the Maple Leafs ever see one down Yonge Street.
Let’s see why.
Wild Card Teams Are Often On the Rise
It’s true that the Senators made the playoffs this year as a wild card entry. Not only that, but the Maple Leafs dispatched them in Round 1 in six games.
Still, history shows that while wild card teams have had mixed success since the NHL introduced the wild card format in 2013-14, more than a few of them have made deep runs in the postseason. Take the Florida Panthers who entered the 2023 Playoffs as a second wild card and battled all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. That followed the Nashville Predators who were also a second wild card team in 2017 and reached the championship series bowing out to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The 2020 Dallas Stars were seeded lower in the COVID-shortened season that year, but still managed to make it to the championship round.
While it’s not often that wild card teams win the Cup, they are often teams on the rise. If nothing else, an appearance in the playoffs as a wild card entry gives a young team like the Senators valuable experience helping them become perennial contenders. Take for example the Carolina Hurricanes. They came into the 2019 Playoffs as a wild card contender and have appeared in the postseason every year since. Then there is the Colorado Avalanche who battled their way into a wild card spot in 2018 and 2019 and then won Lord Stanley’s mug in 2022. They haven’t missed the postseason in eight years.
It’s true that wild card teams are often inconsistent, sometimes less well-rounded and often achieve success through luck and hot goalies. None of this makes for long-term success. Even so, many wild card teams are often built around emerging cores the likes of the Senators’ Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot. If that’s the case, fans are often witnessing a team on the upswing.
Senators Showed Their Mettle in Last of 2024-25 Season
With a record of 13-5-3 in the last 20 games of the 2024-25 regular season, the Senators posted a points percentage (PTS%) of .725 making them one of the best teams in the league over the last quarter of the season. To put that into perspective, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets notched a PTS% on the season of .707.
Among their Atlantic Division rivals, the Senators were the equal of the division-leading Maple Leafs who notched a record of 14-5-1 over their last 20 tilts of the 2024-25 season for a PTS% of .725. What’s more, the second and third seeds in the Atlantic – the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers each notched a PTS% over their last 20 regular season games that were far below that of the Senators.
All of this is to say that over the last quarter of last season, the Senators were among the most competitive in the league. They went on to prove that in their first round series with Toronto, in which they bounced back from a 3-0 deficit only to lose the series in the sixth game by a whisker. In three games in the series, the Senators took their Hog Town rivals into overtime. Ottawa fans can take comfort in knowing that there was more than luck at work in all of this.
Senators’ Core Stable for Next Three Seasons
The Senators have a formidable core under contract for the next three seasons. They are all young and in their physical prime. That includes their fiery captain Tkachuk, centremen Dylan Cozens and Stutzle, along with top-four blueliners Sanderson and Chabot. Starting goalie Linus Ullmark is under contract until the end of the 2027-28 campaign. Top-six right winger Batherson is under contract for another two seasons.
It’s doubtful that this core group will remain together beyond the 2025-26 season, meaning that if the Senators have a shot at a Stanley Cup, their odds are as good as they’re going to get over the next three seasons. Now is their time to win.
Together, the core accounts for $77.9 million in annual salary or just over 80% of the expected $95.5 million in salary cap the team will have to work with next season. A chunk of what’s left over will be taken up by unrestricted free agent (UFA) Claude Giroux if the Senators opt to bring him back, and he agrees to sign. What’s more, bottom-six skaters David Perron, Michael Amadio, Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto are all under contract for next season. On the blue line, Tyler Kleven is a restricted free agent (RFA) while Nikolas Mantinpalo is under contract for another season.
While the Senators won’t have much room under the salary cap to make big flashy additions to the team, president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios will still have some room to manoeuvre. What’s more, he can do that without the worry of major contract negotiations hanging over his head.
Senators’ Goaltending is Solid
Stanley Cup champions need solid goaltending, and that’s what the Senators have now in Linus Ullmark. There have been lapses in his performance, to be sure, but his save percentage (SV%) of .909 and goals-against average (GAA) of 2.72 last season is good enough for the Senators to be a Cup contender.
Not only that, but young twine minder Leevi Merilainen has demonstrated his NHL chops with a SV% of .925 and a GAA of 1.99. To be sure, these numbers were notched over just 12 games last season, but they show impressive potential for him to back up Ullmark and take on a substantial portion of the work between the pipes next season.
Senators Have Management Needed to Win
Stanley Cup-winning teams all have things in common, and one of them is strong management. For proof, there’s the team of GM Julien BriseBois and his head coach Jon Cooper who guided the Tampa Bay Lightning to back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021. Pittsburgh Penguins’ GM Jim Rutherford and his head coach Mike Sullivan did the same thing in 2016 and 2017.
Related: Andlauer and Staios Have Stabilized Senators After Years of Turmoil
Staios and his head coach, Travis Green, bring to the Senators an identity, vision, structure and process that all championship teams possess. None of it is something the previous management regime was ever accused of delivering in Ottawa.
Senators Are Built to Win Now
Fans of the Senators have every reason to be hopeful that over the next few seasons, their team has as good a shot as any team in the NHL at winning a Stanley Cup. The Senators are built to win now, and Bytown hockey fans should expect to relive those five glorious years between 2002 and 2007 when they were last true Cup contenders.
