The 2025 First Round Battle of Ontario series was months in the making. Better yet, it’s been years in the making, as the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs have a unique rivalry, and this will be a series to remember.
This matchup favours the Maple Leafs, at least on paper. They had the regular season and have a roster built to win the Stanley Cup. Their playoff history suggests otherwise, however, as they’ve only advanced to the Second Round once since 2017 and haven’t won the Cup since 1967. The Senators are the new kids on the block, returning to the postseason for the first time since 2017, and despite their lack of playoff experience, they can give the Maple Leafs fits.
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This is a Senators team that matches up well against the Maple Leafs and can go on a deep playoff run. They have the players in place to make the series close and possibly pull off the upset. They might not have the best players in this series, but they have the difference-makers.
Tkachuk: The Unicorn in the Series
Entering his first playoff series, it’s easy to assume that Brady Tkachuk might be able to pull off something close to what his brother, Matthew Tkachuk, has done (the clutch gene runs in the family) for the Florida Panthers in their Cup runs, including a championship in 2024. Tkachuk was also a beast during the 4 Nations Face-Off, proving that he’s built for playoff hockey. But those aren’t the reasons why he’s the player who can take over this series.
Tkachuk’s style of play is the reason. He’s a physical skater and a power forward on the wing who does it all. He can score and find open skaters in the offensive zone, as well as power his way to the net to score goals from the dirty areas. He also forechecks and defends while delivering the big hits when needed (his 227 hits are 29 more than any player on the Maple Leafs).
In a league where skill and speed are key, and power forwards with skill are a rarity, having one makes all the difference. It’s why the Panthers have been a tough team to stop in the playoffs. The Senators have Tkachuk on the top line, and it’s an advantage the Maple Leafs don’t have.
There’s a good argument that Tkachuk isn’t the best player on the Senators. Tim Stutzle has more points, while their defence is more talented and the strength of the team. Yet, Tkachuk is the one player who will provide the Senators with a big moment or a game-changing play when they need it.
Chabot & Sanderson Elite Defensemen
Thomas Chabot is the workhorse on defence. He’s usually among the league leaders in ice time and has been asked to do it all for the Senators. He’s taken a step back this season, yet his track record shows he can take on a big workload in the postseason and step up defensively to secure victories.
Chabot has taken a backseat to Jake Sanderson, who has become the top defenseman on the roster and one of the best in the league. He’s doing it all this season, with 11 goals and 44 assists, while putting up 4.1 defensive point shares from the blue line. At 22 years old, Sanderson is hitting his stride as an elite defenseman, and the Senators will rely on him if they go on a deep run.
Offence from the point is crucial during the playoffs. Defences tighten up and dare offences to generate offence from the blue line. The Senators have two defensemen who can contribute: Chabot and Sanderson. They will not only keep games close but also give the Senators a few big goals to swing this series.
Ullmark is the Undisputed Number One
Goaltending has cost the Senators in the past. Since the Craig Anderson era, they have gone through multiple netminders, including Matt Murray, Marcus Hogberg, Cam Talbot, and Joonas Korpisalo. This season, goaltending is the reason they are in the playoffs. The Senators made the big move to acquire Linus Ullmark, and it not only has paid off, but it might be the best move they made all summer.
Ullmark has had his playoff woes in the past, notably struggling in the First Round in the 2022 and 2023 Playoffs with the Boston Bruins. However, he’s an elite goaltender that the Sens can lean on as they have done all season. The Maple Leafs have two reliable but not great goaltenders, and it’s a matchup that favours the Senators.
This series could be low-scoring with plenty of goaltending duels. If that’s the case, the Senators are set up to pull off the upset. If Ullmark, Anthony Stolarz, or Joseph Woll must make a big save or put together a lights-out game to win this series, Ullmark is the most likely to steal that moment.
Maple Leafs Difference-Makers
Chris Tanev can win a playoff series for the Maple Leafs. He’s the type of defenseman who shuts down opponents and has been one of the best additions to the team since last season. If the Maple Leafs win with defence, Tanev will be eating up pucks and creating turnovers throughout the series.
The Maple Leafs also have the star power capable of carrying them to the Cup. Sure, Auston Matthews has disappeared when the pressure mounts, but he’s a remarkable scorer who can flip a switch at any time. The same is true about Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares, the star forwards who could make sure it’s a high-scoring series.
The Maple Leafs are also a better team under first-year head coach Craig Berube. It wasn’t a fluke that they won the Atlantic Division. They did it with their depth stepping up and by playing playoff hockey from the start of the season. Toronto looks like a team that can go on a run, and that hasn’t been the case in the past.
The Maple Leafs are the team to beat in the First Round. The Senators have the skaters to make this series close and interesting, but the Maple Leafs are still the more talented team that, if they play their best, will win this series.
