The trade deadline is only a few days away, and the New York Islanders are still stuck in the middle. They are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in with a 27-25-7 record. At the same time, with a 2-1 win on Feb. 27 against the Boston Bruins and a 7-4 victory on March 1 against the Nashville Predators, they are within striking distance of a playoff spot (they lost their latest game on March 3 to the New York Rangers).
Related: Maple Leafs Should Acquire Islanders’ Palmieri, Not Nelson
With general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello, there’s no telling what he will do. There’s an argument for him to buy and, likewise, a good case for him to make some trades to set the Islanders up for success in the long run. So, it’s important to look at the case for both with the best and worst case scenarios for them.
Islanders’ Best-Case Scenario For Buying
The Islanders add and upgrade the roster at the deadline, and then they can go on a run. They have 20 games after the trade deadline, and a lot of those games are winnable games, with nine of them against divisional opponents. They can get hot to leap past those teams and get into the playoffs.
Say they win 15 of their final 20 games following the trade deadline (a big if, but this is the best-case scenario, isn’t it?). That run would put them into the playoffs and possibly allow the Islanders to secure the third-best record in the Metropolitan Division. While it’s unlikely they’ll finish with the three seed in the division, this team has the pieces in place to go on a run with great defense and elite goaltending already on the roster.
The question is, what happens next? If the Islanders make it to the playoffs, even in the best-case scenario, how far can they go? They’ll likely face the Carolina Hurricanes or Washington Capitals, two teams built to win the Stanley Cup, and be eliminated in the first round (it’s becoming an annual tradition against the Hurricanes). It’s why buying doesn’t paint the best picture.
Islanders’ Best-Case Scenario For Selling
This allows the Islanders to retool on the fly. They can move Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, the two most valuable players to trade, and bring in a great return and not only add youth to the lineup but help out a depleted prospect pool. If they get a young NHL player, a prospect, and a first-round pick by trading the two players, they are set up for success in 2025-26.
The good thing about the Islanders is that they are in a good spot if they sell. They can trade away one or two players and return next season looking competitive. The core is in place with Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat leading the forwards while Ilya Sorokin is in the net, and adding more young skaters to the roster will only make it better in the future.
The only question is how far the Islanders go. They can move one player, like Palmieri, and then extend Nelson. On the flip side, the Islanders can move four or five players to reset their roster and look noticeably different next season. Regardless, selling helps this team turn things around and turn them around fast. They’ve slowly declined in recent seasons, and a few moves can put them back on track to contend.
Islanders’ Worst-Case Scenario For Buying
There’s a world where the Islanders make a push for the playoffs and miss it by a few points (it’s not a world the fans want to live in). They are in a good position to go on a run, but they must leap over a lot of teams to do so (following their 4-0 loss on March 3 to the Rangers, they must leap past six teams). This is the type of season where one team can miss the playoffs by a point or two, and that team can easily be the Islanders.
Then comes the fallout. They buy and keep Nelson, Palmieri, and everyone else who could bring in a great return, and then comes an offseason where Lamoriello must choose between the two forwards and their two young restricted free agent (RFA) defensemen, Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov. Suddenly, the Islanders are in a worse spot with no avenues to compete in 2025-26.
With an aging roster, a depleted farm system, and not much roster depth, this grim outlook can force ownership to make some changes. How significant is unclear, but at the very least, they can allow head coach Patrick Roy to have a stronger say in the team’s long-term plans. Lamoriello’s driving this team into the ground, and someone would have to step in and stop him (and the only person who can do that at the moment is Roy).
Islanders’ Worst-Case Scenario For Selling
It’s a buyer’s market, and the Islanders can get fleeced in a few deals. Yes, they have two of the best players available, but if teams don’t budge, they can come away with underwhelming returns. That would have them heading into next season with not much working in their favor.
What would make things worse is that by selling, the Islanders would be waving the white flag on the season. An already bad team would only be worse and likely finish near the bottom of the standings. The tough blow from this would be the attendance, which isn’t great to begin with and would drop significantly if this team isn’t competitive.
The catch with this scenario is that it has a positive outlook. If this team is awful down the stretch, they will likely land a top-five pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft, which is shaping up to be a top-heavy one. Pair that pick with the pieces they bring back at the trade deadline, and the Islanders will be a better team heading into the new season. So, even if everything goes wrong, a rebound is still a possibility.
The Best Path For Lamoriello to Take
With everything considered, the best path for the Islanders to take is to sell. Yes, making a push for the playoffs is a path within reason and one Lamoriello can take, but the ceiling is limited if they do so. At best, they make the playoffs but don’t do much better than that.
It’s why the Islanders should look at a retool at the deadline. It doesn’t need to be a teardown, but moving a few players will set this team up for long-term success. Now Lamoriello won’t do this, or if he does, it will be a shock, but he should to allow the Islanders to be a great team by next season.
Should the Islanders buy or sell at the trade deadline? Let us know in the comments section below!
