In most seasons, there are two or three teams you can pick out and say they are Stanley Cup contenders. The Florida Panthers were obvious choices the last couple of seasons, as were the Tampa Bay Lightning in previous years. Out west, you could have identified the Edmonton Oilers, Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars as Cup contenders in different seasons.
While some of those teams may emerge as legit Cup favorites as the season progresses, nobody has truly distinguished themselves at the Christmas break. It looks like a wide-open field to win the Stanley Cup in 2025, which adds to the intrigue as the stretch run of the season hits in February.
Panthers Have Competition
Let’s start with the Panthers, who are reigning Eastern Conference (2x) and Stanley Cup champions. They sit atop the Atlantic Division with a 22-12-2 record and 46 points. Their five-on-five numbers are among the best in the NHL; they rank fourth in expected goals share (xG%). But the one concern is their goaltending has been shaky at best. Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight have save percentages below .900 and have barely been league average.
It says plenty about the Panthers that they’re 22-12-2 with subpar goaltending, and one has to assume Bobrovsky will turn it on in the playoffs. I wouldn’t call you crazy for thinking they can win the Eastern Conference for a third consecutive year, but they aren’t alone.
Related: Oilers and Panthers Are Still the Teams to Beat in the NHL
The Toronto Maple Leafs have to make a run in the playoffs eventually, right? They’re 21-12-2 and right behind the Panthers for first in the Atlantic, but they’re playing a much different brand of hockey under Craig Berube. Their defensive play has improved, but it has come at the expense of offense, as they’re generating 2.46 expected goals per 60 minutes. The knock on the Maple Leafs in the playoffs is they can’t score enough goals when it matters, and their style of play under Berube suggests that could be a problem again.
You can never count out the Lightning, given their core. Jake Guentzel has also been a perfect addition to that roster, but Cup contender? We’ll see. However, the true threats to the Panthers may come from the Metropolitan Division. The Washington Capitals have arguably been the biggest surprise in the NHL at Christmas, with a 23-9-2 record and 48 points. They are riding some unsustainably high shooting and save percentages, but they’re also a good hockey team; their 53.15 xG% ranks sixth in the NHL.
Next are the New Jersey Devils, who look like one of those teams that could distinguish themselves as the season progresses. Their 55.91 xG% ranks third in the NHL, and they’re playing outstanding defense while generating plenty of offense. They could use a top-nine scorer ahead of the trade deadline, but they’re one team that benefits from a wide-open field for the Cup.
Many thought this season would be the Carolina Hurricanes’ downfall, but that hasn’t happened. They’re third in the Metro and six points back of the Devils with three games in hand. Their 56.01 xG% is second in the NHL, though they lack some of the game-breaking scoring talents the Capitals, Panthers and Devils have.
Still, are the Panthers that far ahead of the Capitals, Hurricanes, Devils or vice versa? The Panthers have the Stanley Cup experience, which matters, but all these teams have some question marks. The Panthers’ goaltending has been suspect, the Devils and Hurricanes could use more scoring, the Maple Leafs look worse under Berube than Sheldon Keefe, and the Capitals could be regression candidates due to potentially unsustainable shooting and save percentages. They’re all very good teams, but nobody has separated themselves from the pack.
Jets & Golden Knights Have Their Flaws
If you thought the East was wide open, the West looks as wide open as it’s been in years. There are some good teams, but many of the division leaders have some serious questions or concerns, while teams many expected to be contenders have gotten off to slow starts.
The two division leaders in the West — the Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights — have some red flags in their five-on-five game. The Golden Knights have an xG% of 49.59 percent, ranked 19th, while the Jets sit 22nd in xG% at 48.55 percent.
The Jets and Golden Knights get by in different ways. Connor Hellebuyck is having another Vezina-worthy season, totaling a .927 SV% at the Christmas break. That’s helped cover up a team that generally gets outplayed at five-on-five, as has one of the best power plays in the NHL.
Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are getting by shooting the lights out of the puck. They have a 9.91 shooting percentage at five-on-five, the sixth-highest in the NHL, and have scored nearly 20 goals above expected at all strengths.
For those who think this doesn’t matter, the Oilers and Panthers were two of the top three teams in xG% last season, and they were the Cup finalists. Historically, teams who struggle at five-on-five during the regular season don’t make runs in the playoffs. The New York Rangers have been the exception due to their elite power play and Igor Shesterkin, but as we’ve seen this season, that formula has begun to crumble for them.
Who Wants to Step Up in the Western Conference?
This isn’t say to the Jets and Golden Knights are frauds, but fortunately for them, nobody else in the West stands out yet. The Stars are suddenly treading water in the playoff race with the emergence of Utah HC, while the Avalanche have scoring depth and goaltending concerns.
The Minnesota Wild have had a hot start to 2024-25, going 21-10-4 in their first 35 games, thanks to outstanding goaltending from Filip Gustavsson and a Hart-caliber season from Kirill Kaprizov. They rank ninth in the NHL in xG%, and I would put them ahead of the Jets and Golden Knights in the Cup-contending category.
However, the one team with the best odds of separating themselves from the pack is the Oilers, who are coming on after a slow start to the season. The Oilers are up there with the Devils, Panthers, Hurricanes and Capitals in five-on-five xG%, a place they’ve become familiar with in recent seasons.
Having the best player in the world in Connor McDavid and one of the best in Leon Draisaitl makes them Cup contenders, but much of the team that won the West a season ago returned for 2024-25. Zach Hyman is getting hot again, Evan Bouchard looks like a top-pair defender alongside Mattias Ekholm, and Stuart Skinner has come around, posting a .912 SV% in his last ten starts. Skinner is the wild card for the Oilers. They’re a very difficult out if he can post a .912 SV% consistently, but that consistency has always been a concern with him.
You can’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, either. They’re having a sneaky good season and are first in xG%, though they’re still playing a similar style of defensive hockey that’s cost them in the playoffs. We’ll see if they can buck their recent trends, but they are playing well. Otherwise, the West couldn’t look more wide open.
It’s Anyone’s Game
I have no idea who could win the Stanley Cup in 2025. I know it’s Christmas and there’s still half a season to go, but you usually get some separation by the Christmas break. This season, there are upward of 6-8 teams who look like they could contend for the Cup, and that’s a great thing for the league and fans as we approach the stretch run and playoff races begin heating up.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
