Stars Shouldn’t Overreact to Short Playoff Stay Due to Injuries

The Dallas Stars were one of the bigger disappointments of the first round of the NHL playoffs. They struggled to tilt play in their favor at five-on-five and ended up falling in six games to a very good Minnesota Wild team. Had it not been for their power play, it could have been an even quicker series.

Let’s not take anything away from the Wild. They were the better team and deserved to advance to the second round, but the Stars came into that series as the walking wounded:

Injuries had the Stars at a disadvantage entering the postseason. Many of their top players were dealing with serious ailments, but that could be a positive as they begin to make some adjustments this offseason to make a deeper run in 2026-27.

Most of the Stars’ Top Players Were Dealing With Injuries

One of the things I wondered about the Stars’ first-round performance was what was going on with Mikko Rantanen? He finished with seven points in six games, but only one of those points came at five-on-five. He also finished with an expected goals share (xG%) just above 35 percent. Now, the picture is clearer.

Rantanen tore his MCL at the Olympics, and he was never himself again. Stars GM Jim Nill told reporters yesterday that they would have liked one or two more weeks for Rantanen to recover after he returned to the lineup on March 28. So that answers that question. It’s no wonder he wasn’t himself at five-on-five.

Rantanen was far from the only serious injury, though. Miro Heiskanen tore his oblique just before the playoffs began, and I can only imagine what playing through that was like. Heiskanen had some good moments on the power play, but he too struggled at five-on-five. The Stars were outscored 6-0 during his five-on-five minutes, and he finished with an xG% of 45.49 percent.

Thomas Harley suffered a broken foot in November, and while I thought he played well against the Wild, he did not look like himself for significant portions of the regular season. We all know Roope Hintz didn’t play in the first round, but Nill said he was close to returning before reinjuring his torn hamstring.

Even during the playoffs, the Stars dealt with some more injuries. Nils Lundkvist suffered a concussion and a deep laceration after taking a skate blade to his face in Game 4. Arttu Hyry had a high-ankle sprain and would have been out two to four weeks, meaning he would have missed a second-round showdown with the Colorado Avalanche.

And, of course, there was Tyler Seguin, who tore his ACL early in the regular season, forcing him to miss an overwhelming majority of the 2025-26 campaign. In total, the Stars ranked fourth in man games lost due to injury this season. Still, they managed to win 50 games and finish second in the Central Division. They may have disappointed in the first round of the playoffs, but can you blame them? Many of their top players were not 100 percent, and that’s how the cards fall sometimes.

Stars’ Disappointing Playoffs Were Likely a One-Off

The good news among all these injuries is that Nill is unlikely to overreact this offseason. He said as much to reporters, telling Lia Assimakopoulos, “We’re a good team. I’m not gonna go out and make a bunch of changes.” That’s the right approach from Nill. There’s no reason to blow things up or make a blockbuster move to shake up the roster.

That means Nill will likely find a way to re-sign Jason Robertson, whose next contract could come with a cap hit of $12 million or higher. They will need to shed some salary to fit in Robertson for next season, but Nill will find a way to make it work. Trading Robertson would shut the team’s contention window. He’s their best player, so we can probably put an end to trade rumors around him.

Still, I’d expect some changes for the Stars. They need another puck-moving defenseman on the right side of their blue line. Lundkvist played well this season and was one of the Stars’ better players during the postseason, but they need someone else who moves the puck in transition, even if it’s in a bottom-four role.

Other than that, the Stars don’t have much to worry about this offseason. As Nill said, they’re a good team, and a few minor tweaks are all they should need. The reality is that injuries played a significant factor in the Wild defeating them in six games, and that’s just how things play out sometimes. Injuries are more or less luck. All you can do is hope that they aren’t as impactful next season, and that seems to be the approach that Nill is taking. They should be in good shape moving forward.

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, NHL Injury Viz