The Winnipeg Jets have just a dozen games to go before the playoffs. They have 100 points and 48 wins, but are by no means playing perfectly.
Here, we’ll dive into four things they should focus on over the last 12 so they can go into the postseason with momentum and the best-possible chance of making a deep run.
1: Hang On To First Place in the West
File this one in the “no duh” category.
Now 48-18-4 in head coach Scott Arniel’s maiden season as bench boss, the Jets have been near the top or atop the Western Conference all season. They currently sit 10 points up on the Central Division rival Dallas Stars for first in the West and the Central Division (the Stars have two games in hand.)
Holding off the Stars to finish first would grant the Jets a more-favourable first-round matchup against the second Western Conference wild-card team. They wold definitely prefer to play one of the St. Louis Blues, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, or Utah Hockey Club — four teams battling for that second spot — rather than the Colorado Avalanche or Minnesota Wild, one of whom they’d have to face if they fell to second in the Central.
Related: Ranking Jets’ Potential First-Round Playoff Matchups
All sports teams talk about focusing on what they can control during playoff races and not on standings watching. While it’s obvious every team does watch the scoreboard during stretch runs, the Jets need to block out as much external noise as possible and dial in. They control their own fate in finishing first for the first time in Jets 2.0 history and took a big step toward doing so by defeating the Stars 4-1 on March 14 and upping their edge to 10 points instead of seeing it reduced to six.
The Stars have achieved 1.285 points per game this season. If they continue that pace through their final 14, they will end up with 108, meaning the Jets would need to go at least 4-7-1 over their final 12 to get 109.
2: Get Power Play Firing Again
The Jets’ power play owns a league-leading 30 per cent efficiency, but that number is more a reflection of past success than anything they’ve done lately because lately they’ve been awful. With a few exceptions, since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the power play has either cost them or almost cost them more games than it’s won them.
The power play has operated well below its capabilities in 14 games since the Jets returned to action after two weeks off, going six for 37 for a paltry 12.7 per cent efficiency. They have scored a power-play goal in just four games, suffered through a zero-for-14 stretch in the first five games out of the break, and are currently mired in a one-for-16 slump through their past half dozen.
Most alarmingly, they have failed to come out of a five-on-three situation with at least a goal on more than a couple of occasions. The most-recent game, on March 20 against the Edmonton Oilers, was emblematic of their scuffles: they failed to grab the lead in the third period on a five on three, failed to snag the game winner on a late third-period power play, almost allowed a shorthanded goal on that power play, and went zero for four overall.
The struggles appear due to a combination of opponents having figured out what they are going to do and keying on certain players and set plays, a lack of a “shoot-first” mentality at times, a lack of attention to detail, and simply bad puck luck.
The Jets have had 190 power-play opportunities this season for an average of 2.71 per game, but you can bet the average is going to go down in the playoffs when referees often put whistles away to “let the players play” even when they’re playing outside the rules.
Every power-play chance the Jets get in the playoffs will have an outsized importance, so getting the regime somewhere closer to the “cheat-code” status it enjoyed earlier this season is paramount. The final dozen is the perfect time for assistant coach Davis Payne to test out some new wrinkles, stress killer instinct to his current personnel, shake up his units, or do all three.
3: Get Third Line Back on Track
Having a great power play is all well and good, but the majority of the game is played five on five. The Jets are often considered to have some of the league’s best scoring depth and one of the best third lines, but they have had a rather hard time lately.
The trio of Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton — known for both being shutdown and offensively capable — have been neither recently. Niederreiter has not scored in 15 games and has just two assists in that span, Appleton has one goal and one assist in his past 15, and Lowry has three goals and no assists in his past 15. Arniel even broke up the line on Tuesday in the 6-2 loss to the Canucks after some uncharacteristically-suspect defensive play and turnovers from the trio.
“I think as a line our forecheck hasn’t been as good as it should be. We all know that,” Niederreiter said recently. “That’s something which is our staple, and we’ve just been a little bit discombobulated together. I think we need to find that spark where we get in the (offensive) zone and spend a significant amount of time down there. I think that’s the biggest thing, getting pucks to the net as well. That’s something we haven’t been doing very well.” (From ‘We need to find that spark,’ Winnipeg Free Press, March 20, 2025.)
The most successful playoff teams roll four lines and get offensive contributions from all of them. All three third liners are experienced NHLers who know how good they can be together, so if they can get back to doing what they know they can, the Jets will be much more dangerous.
4: Ease Hellebuyck’s Workload Without Icing Him
When people refer to Connor Hellebuyck being in “playoff form,” it’s not a compliment. Rather, it’s a reference to his poor performance in the first round last spring against the Avalanche, when the Vezina winner suddenly looked lost in the crease and posted an ugly 5.23 goals against average (GAA) .870 save percentage (SV%), and a negative 5.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in five games.
The “playoff form” jokers have come out of the woodworks in the past couple of days as Hellebuyck — who is walking his way to his second-straight and third-career Vezina — looked uncharacteristically shaky against the Canucks and Oilers. The usually rock-solid netminder allowed eight goals on 45 shots for a .822 SV% in those starts combined and had a season-worst .762 SV% versus the Canucks.
Time will tell if this is ultimately just a blip or the beginning of a repeat downturn in his performance, but it’s obvious Arniel will need to toe a delicate line when it comes to his goaltending deployment down the stretch.
Hellebuyck has already made 53 starts, but it’s really 56 because he started three games for the USA at the 4 Nations. It’s important he’s not overworked at the start of playoffs as he has been in past seasons.
With 40 wins, it’s still possible Hellebuyck can tie or break the single-season goaltending wins record of 48 (set by Braden Holtby and Martin Brodeur in 2015-16 and 2006-07, respectively.) The chase for history should come secondary, though.
Backup Eric Comrie has been serviceable to good all season with a 2.39 GAA, .914 SV%, one shutout, and 6.2 GSAx through 18 starts. He has won five out of his last six after losing seven-straight mainly due to the team scoring giving him a lowly 12 goals of support in that span. Putting in Comrie does not equate to a “scheduled loss” by any means so Arniel should feel confident giving him at least four more (despite there being only one more back-to-back situation on the schedule.)
If Hellebuyck struggles his next couple of times out, Arniel will have to decide whether additional rest or allowing his number-one goalie to play through it is the best course of action. As Hellebuyck goes, so do the Jets, so having him mentally sharp for the biggest stage will be massive.