As we near the start of the 2024-25 NHL season, expectations and predictions start to set in for players. Who will have their breakout season? Who will regress to the mean after over-performing last season? Ultimately, we can never predict how many points a player will produce heading into the season. Too many variables and factors play into the end-of-season totals. However, predicting players who will break career-best totals is extremely exciting, and the Tampa Bay Lightning have a few players poised for career years.
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While the Lightning were one of the top offensive teams during the 2023-24 season, many of their goals came on the man advantage. With the loss of captain Steven Stamkos, the Lightning power play dynamic will shift for the upcoming season. Furthermore, they must improve at 5-on-5 to have success in the playoffs. Here are three Lightning players who can step up this season and set a new career-high in points.
Jake Guentzel
Criminally underrated for his 5-on-5 play, Jake Guentzel is a system-proof star in the NHL. He will likely shatter his career-best of 40 goals and 84 points in 76 games during the 2021-22 season on Tampa Bay’s top line. With one of the league’s best passers, Nikita Kucherov, Guentzel can hit the 40-goal plateau for the second time. Moreover, he will help the top line sustain periods of possession and create more scoring chances at 5-on-5. Don’t forget he will be with 51-goal scorer Brayden Point, who adds speed and energy to the top trio.
Playing alongside two superstars, Guentzel has the potential to record north of 90 points in his first season with the Lightning. In addition, he will receive first-unit power play minutes. We can’t imagine a world where Guentzel doesn’t record at least a point per game this season. Somewhere in the 40-45 goal and the 90-95 point range is reasonable for Guentzel.
Anthony Cirelli
Coming off a career-high of 20 goals and 45 points, the Lightning’s two-way stud is in for another increase in production this season. Anthony Cirelli formed chemistry with 25-year-old winger Brandon Hagel at 5-on-5 and the penalty kill. Many fans wanted Cirelli traded due to his high cap hit and minimal point production. However, he showed improvement offensively last season while being healthy. At 27 years old, don’t count out Cirelli to set a new career-high for the upcoming 2024-25 season.
After all, Cirelli and Hagel are in their prime, with their best years ahead of them. The two-way center always finds soft spots on the ice for high-danger shot opportunities. Furthermore, Cirelli is very good at crashing the net for deflections and rebounds. With a star like Hagel on his wing, Cirelli is capable of eclipsing the 50-point mark for the first time in his career. A 25-goal and 50-point season is the expectation for the centerman this season.
Michael Eyssimont
Finally earning a full-time role in the NHL, Michael Eyssimont showed much heart and tenacity last season. The gritty winger scored 11 goals and 25 points in 81 games, doubling his goal total from the previous season. He primarily played a bottom-six role but also skated a few games on the second line beside Cirelli and Hagel. With his projected center Nick Paul’s breakout performance last season, Eyssimont is also due for an increase in production with a few minor changes to his offensive game.
If Eyssimont develops his passing skills and improves his shot selection, he will record many more points this season. He can drive wide with speed on the rush and was near the top of zone entry microstats for the Lightning. Something along the lines of a 15-goal and 30-point pace is a reasonable expectation for the young winger in 2024-25.
Other Players That May Set Career-Highs
Outside the top three candidates, a few more players might set career highs in points this season. Hagel may have more offense left in his game, especially if he gets minutes on the first line and the top power-play unit. Moving to the backend, J.J. Moser can break his career-best 31 points with improved teammates. Do Darren Raddysh and Nick Perbix have more to give as they continue to develop as late bloomers? While projecting points is difficult, these Lightning players have the best chance to have career years this season.
