After years of instability, the Ottawa Senators may have finally figured out their defence. The team allows an average of just 2.79 goals per game, the seventh-lowest in the NHL. In five of their last eight games, they’ve allowed two goals or less, with rookie netminder Leevi Merilainen putting up two shutouts in that span. Nearly every player has stepped up defensively, from veteran to rookie on both offence and defence. It really looks like the team has bought into head coach Travis Green’s defensive system.
However, on offence, things have started to dry up. The Senators have already been shut out five times in January and are averaging just 2.73 goals per game, the eighth-lowest in the NHL. The team’s top five scorers have a combined nine goals in the past 12 games, and after being shut out by the Boston Bruins on Jan. 23, captain Brady Tkachuk is now on a nine-game pointless streak, the longest since his rookie season.
Injuries have played a significant factor in the Senators’ offensive dip and getting those players back will help things get back to normal. But this rough stretch has revealed that this roster needs more scoring punch. With the Senators lacking depth as well as serious trade assets, they’ll need to be smart about who they target.
Where Did the Goals Go?
At the start of the 2024-25 season, the Senators were among the most lethal teams with the puck. They were the third-highest-scoring team in October, averaging 4.22 goals and over 31 shots per game. Everyone was firing on all cylinders; Tim Stutzle had a team-leading 14 points in nine games, Brady Tkachuk had six goals, Jake Sanderson was nearly a point-per-game, and after a rough 2023-24, Josh Norris looked back to his regular self with four goals and eight points.
Things dipped in November, but by the holiday break in December, the Senators remained one of the top-scoring teams in the NHL. They still averaged three goals and 30 shots a game and were firmly in the top half of the league standings. But since their return, their offence has completely collapsed. In the 14 games after Christmas, Ottawa has averaged 1.86 goals per game, the worst in the NHL, and their 27.6 shots per game rank 20th overall. More concerningly, they averaged 8.49 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, which means they are only expected to score 2.18 goals. Believe it or not, the Senators scored more often than they should in January.
Looking forward to getting back in front of our fans
— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) January 24, 2025
Click to watch Drake Batherson's postgame media ????
Of course, any discussion about the Senators has to mention the myriad of injuries they’ve gone through. Linus Ullmark has been out since Dec. 22, Jacob Bernard-Docker and Travis Hamonic haven’t played since the beginning of January, and Noah Gregor hasn’t returned since leaving their Jan. 9 game with a lower-body injury. Michael Amadio recently returned to the ice after missing nine games and David Perron finally returned to the lineup against the Bruins, but then Sanderson and Norris didn’t dress and Nick Jensen didn’t finish the game.
That’s forced the team to rely on a lot of inexperienced defenders to fill in the gaps, and while players like Tyler Kleven and Matinpalo have stepped up in a big way, a lot of the team’s best offensive players have had to chip in defensively to help even things out. It’s worked out pretty well, as the team continues to win games, and it’s clear evidence that they have bought into Green’s defensive system. After all, Tkachuk stated that it was something he wanted to work on this season, saying, “I want to be a guy that’s relied upon defensively. And for me, focusing on the commitment to it. I don’t want to be known as a liability out there or trading chances. I want to be a good shutdown guy who can play against top guys and be hard to play against.”
But that’s come at a cost. Stutzle isn’t shooting as much now, averaging less than two shots per game since the break; before, he was averaging over two shots. The same goes for Tkachuk, who’s dropped from over four shots a game to about 3.5. Looking at the bottom of the lineup, Gaudette has just two goals since Dec. 11, Nick Cousins hasn’t scored since returning from the break, and Ridly Greig is on an 11-game goal-less streak. If these injuries last much longer, something needs to change.
Target #1 – Andrei Kuzmenko, Calgary Flames
There are several great goal-scorers rumoured to be on the move ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline, but the Senators won’t be able to afford any of them. Even with a much-improved farm system, they still rank 24th in the NHL according to The Hockey Writers‘ Logan Horn, leaving them precious little future pieces to play with. So, general manager Steve Staios needs to get creative in who he targets.
Related: Ottawa Senators Prospect of the Week – Nikolas Matinpalo
One name that’s a bit outside the box is Andrei Kuzmenko. Brought up by THW’s Jacob Billington, he points out that the Calgary Flames’ winger addresses a lot of the Senators’ current scoring issues, specifically in helping Stutzle and Tkachuk get out of their slumps. He’s not a line driver, but he has a great shot and incredible speed. He also wouldn’t cost the Senators much more than a mid-round draft pick, which is more than worth it. After all, as Billington writes, “A 39-goal season doesn’t usually happen by accident.”
The only problem is that his cap hit is quite high at $5.5 million, especially with just two goals and 11 points this season. But Ottawa has often been a great place for struggling players to restart their careers, and it could allow the Senators to move some other pending free agents like Anton Forsberg and get something back.
Target #2 – Fabian Lysell, Boston Bruins
Speaking of players who need a change of scenery, Fabian Lysell still hasn’t found his place in Boston since he was drafted 21st overall in 2021. He’s been great in the American Hockey League (AHL), scoring 35 goals and 101 points in 141 games with the Providence Bruins, but every time he’s called up, he can’t seem to crack the lineup. It’s led to speculation that he may be traded this season, especially after he failed to make the team yet again out of training camp.
However, Lysell could be a great fit in Ottawa. In his only NHL game, he played 11.5 minutes mostly alongside Justin Brazeau and Trent Frederic, two players who play a physical, gritty, Senators-style game, and recorded a surprisingly high 5.7 goals-for-per 60 minutes (GF/60) at even strength. Only two players have a higher average than that this season, while only 10 players across the NHL have hit 5.0 or more GF/60. Add in that he’s still in the second year of his entry-level deal and Lysell could be an excellent value addition to the Senators’ bottom six.
Target #3 – Ryan Donato, Chicago Blackhawks
Like Kuzmenko, Ryan Donato was never thought to be much of a play driver. Before 2024-25, he’d never scored more than 16 goals and 31 points in a season, and even that total, set with the Seattle Kraken in 2021-22, seemed like an outlier. But in his second season with the Chicago Blackhawks, he suddenly took charge of the team’s offence. In 46 games, he already has 14 goals and 24 points, putting him on pace to score 24 goals and nearly 50 points by April. For a player on the NHL’s third-lowest-scoring team, that’s an impressive total, especially for one only making $2 million.
Despite Donato’s breakout season, it’s possible he wouldn’t find many suitors among the top teams as he doesn’t bring that veteran grit and defensive reliability that most teams want for a deep playoff run. It’s not that he shies away from physicality; he already has 81 hits this season. But with a 3.3 GA/60, he’s not a player who can be consistently relied on to break up plays. He’s also been getting a career-high in ice time, which almost certainly wouldn’t be the case anywhere else. The Senators, however, already have the shutdown forwards they need and could give Donato similar ice time.
Bonus Target – The AHL
The Senators have already called up a good chunk of their farm team, but so far, they’ve avoided some of the best goalscorers with the Belleville Senators. Although he’s having a down season, Angus Crookshank remains the team’s best scorer. In 33 appearances, the 25-year-old speedster leads the team with 14 goals and is on pace to score a career-high 31 goals. He also performed well in his call-ups to the NHL last season, scoring twice in 13 games.
Wyatt Bongiovanni is another option that hasn’t been utilized yet. Although he’s only played 23 games this season, he sits second in Belleville with 13 goals. He doesn’t have the NHL experience his teammate has, but both players currently sit in the top 50 in AHL scoring, ahead of top prospects Dalibor Dvorsky, Liam Ohgren, and Frank Nazar. If Ottawa doesn’t want to pull the trigger on a risky move, these players could be a temporary stopgap. The only problem is that leaves Belleville with precious few players left who can move the puck, which isn’t great for those remaining to develop good habits.
Whatever the Senators choose to do, they need to do it quickly. The playoff race in the Eastern Conference is getting tighter by the day; Ottawa is just two points back of the Bruins for third in the Atlantic Division and one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning, but so are the Montreal Canadiens, and the Detroit Red Wings are just three points behind them. In the wild card race, the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, and Philadelphia Flyers are also right there, separated by three points in the standings, and the Pittsburgh Penguins are just a point behind the Red Wings. It’s a log jam in the East, and if the Senators want to differentiate themselves, they can’t just sit back and wait for things to get better. Their competition sure won’t.
