The New Jersey Devils had a storybook start to the season. They took both games in the Global Series, dominating former head coach Lindy Ruff and the Buffalo Sabres heading back to North America with a jumpstart on the season and a four-point lead on the rest of the league. Eight games later, the Devils have allowed the league to catch up, losing five of the next eight and four in a row until they got back to winning against the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday. The Devils have shown grit in returning from deficits but also demonstrated a penchant for giving up goals in bunches and failing to compete for stretches. Here are ten thoughts on the team in what has been an uneven, but hopeful first 12 games.
1. Still Need More Saves
Within minutes of the start of the season, newcomer Jacob Markstrom made arguably the save of the year in the NHL by denying an open net tap-in with his paddle. He would have a solid first five appearances for New Jersey, putting up a stellar .918 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.43 goals-against average (GAA). His high-danger save percentage (HDSV%), his calling card from his most successful seasons, was a stellar .857.
Then, the wheels came off the next two games. With little help from his defense against the Washington Capitals, he allowed six goals. Thursday night in Detroit, he allowed a late power-play goal from 37 feet away straight on without a screen. A shot that had a less than seven percent chance of scoring (per Moneypuck). In those two games, his stats fell to .821 SV%, 4.90 GAA, and an abysmal .417 HDSV%. He gave up seven high-danger goals in those two games while making only five high-danger saves. There were five high-danger goals in 35 shots in the first five games.
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Backup Jake Allen has had a similar fall. He had a .974 SV%, a .50 GAA, and a .833 HDSV% in his first two games. He followed that by allowing eight goals on 37 shots, surrendering almost four goals above expected. His play led head coach Sheldon Keefe to lament post-game that his team needed more saves. Getting the consistent play from the goaltending that the Devils received in the first seven games will be a massive key to stabilizing the season. Markstrom had a bounce-back game Sunday night against the Anaheim Ducks, stopping 22 of 24 shots for a .923 SV% and never letting the Ducks back into the game after conceding an early goal.
2. The Devils Won the Trade With Vegas
Paul Cotter mania has swept through the Devils’ fan base. The speedy, physical winger has already made Devils fans forget the enigmatic Alex Holtz. Cotter blazed onto the scene to start the season. Through the team’s first 12 games, he is second on the Devils with six goals, all at even strength. His enthusiasm and versatility have been vital to Keefe’s successful tinkering, as he has been used on all four lines and both special teams.
Cotter is unlikely to shoot over 26% for the season as he has, but his energy and attack mentality is a good fit for what New Jersey wants to do this season. His 33 hits demonstrate this, placing him second on the team and putting him on a pace for 246 for the season. Who knows what Holtz becomes, but the young Swede needed a new start, and Cotter appears to be a perfect fit in New Jersey.
3. Healthy Hamilton Makes a Difference
Dougie Hamilton and Brenden Dillon have undoubtedly struggled defensively, but Hamilton’s contributions on offense, especially the power play, were sorely missed last season. It took Hamilton some time to find his groove, but he has now scored six points in the previous six games, four of which came on the power play. His knack for getting pucks on the net through traffic will be a massive positive for New Jersey, with players like Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier patrolling the net front. He leads the NHL in shots on goal with 44, and while only one has gotten by a goalie, his career stats say that the goals will come soon.
4. Nico Hischier Is Back
The Devils ask a lot from their captain, and he has over-delivered. Nico Hischier has become one of the NHL’s premier faceoff takers. He leads the NHL in faceoffs taken, with over 80 more than the next closest player, Sidney Crosby. He is also among the league leaders in faceoff percentage at just over 55%. Hischier leads the NHL in goals with nine. He also plays over 20 minutes a night and averages 25 shifts per game combined between even strength, the power play, and the penalty kill. He also often draws the assignment of shutting down the opponents’ top line.
Hischier has played to an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 57.75%. While it may seem a product of him being given an offensive opportunity, it reflects his defensive prowess. He leads the team in defensive zone starts. With him on the ice, the Devils’ goalies have played to a .931 SV% while outshooting, out-chancing, and outscoring his opponents. He has found a way to score in the clutch when New Jersey is down. He scored twice in ten seconds against the Capitals to erase a two-goal deficit and contributed two power-play goals against the Red Wings. He has found a home in the “bumper” position on the power play. He is riding his consistent deployment by leading the NHL in power-play goals with four. In his career, Hischier has only topped four power-play goals twice. While Hughes may be the flashier and more purely offensively talented player, the Devils go as Hischier goes.
5. Keefe Is Unafraid to Mix Things Up & Hold Players Accountable
When Keefe was hired, many Devils fans rejoiced at the thought of finally escaping the vaunted Lindy Ruff line blender. They did not know that Keefe tinkers as much, if not more, than Ruff. So far this season, the team is on pace for 80 different line combinations, while last season, the team maxed out at 71 (per Daniel Amoia). That speaks volumes, considering how many players the Devils were forced to use last season due to injuries to Hischier, Hughes, and Meier, among others.
So far, even with a forward group mostly intact, Keefe has leaned on his team’s versatility to find matchups that work. Twelve games in, Cotter, Ondrej Palat, and Tomas Tatar have played on three of the four lines for significant stretches. Similarly, Keefe has moved Meier between Hughes and Hischier to find the best fit. He has also been adept at loading up on offense or defense depending on where and when faceoffs occur. When the team has offensive zone faceoffs and is chasing goals, Keefe puts Hischier and Hughes on the ice together, with Bratt or Meier and two offensive defensemen. He has also put Hischier, Lazar, or Haula on the ice for crucial defensive zone possessions to ensure he has multiple faceoff takers. Keefe seems more concerned about situational aptitude than line integrity, and as the Devils buy-in, it should inure to their benefit.
Ruff did not like to discuss goaltending. He eschewed pregame questions asking him to name his starter and often found ways to deflect blame from his goaltending, even when it was evident that the team needed more stops. Keefe has taken the opposite tact. He has been unafraid to talk about his goalie plan and even less bashful about stating his team needs better goaltending. The players have mentioned the emphasis on accountability and situational awareness throughout camp and now during the season. There has been a focus on puck management and shift management, dumping pucks in later in shifts, looking to catch other teams on changes, and making better changes. A poor shift change in overtime cost the Devils the game against the Capitals, and Keefe was unafraid to point out his players’ errors, even if Hischier had made them. Keefe has set the tone in meetings and how he has deployed his players, which should pay dividends as the season progresses.
6. A Haula Back Year
Much was made of Erik Haula’s extension with the Devils after the 2023 Playoffs. He had been a high-level journeyman who had played for six teams in nine seasons, making the playoffs at each stop. He said he found his family and was glad to put down roots in New Jersey. Like most teammates, 2023-24 spiraled into a major disappointment. He went from 41 points to 35 and a plus-13 to a minus-1, missing the playoffs for the first time in his career. He also fluctuated between center and wing and never found a consistent role.
This season, Haula was anointed the 3C role even before the start of training camp. He has embraced it and driven a line that has made a difference already in the short season. Playing with former teammate Stefan Noesen and either Palat, Tatar, or Cotter, he has found a way to contribute consistently on both sides of the puck. He leads the team in faceoff percentage, winning over 57% of his draws. He has also already contributed eight points and as many power-play goals as he scored last season. Haula’s ability to win defensive zone draws, kill penalties, and match up against other top lines will allow Keefe to lessen some of the burden ascribed to Hischier and hopefully keep the captain fresh as the season progresses. A healthy, agitating Haula with Noesen riding shotgun fulfills Fitzgerald’s quest to become more challenging to play against and to have a team of players who have each others’ backs on the ice.
7. Palat Struggling to Find a Role
In many ways, Palat should symbolize the ideal versatility that Keefe seeks in his roster. He can play both wings throughout the top nine, kill penalties and contribute to the power play. Much of his first two seasons have been diminished by significant and nagging injuries that robbed him of games and the ability to fully acclimate into the team. This year, with a full offseason under his belt and healthy, Palat was poised to have his best season yet, especially with the team starting in Palat’s native Czechia for the Global Series. He was forced to leave Prague early, missing game two of the Series due to issues surrounding the birth of his second child. Palat would return home, meeting the team in New Jersey and has seemed out of sync since.
Keefe has struggled to find a line that brings out the best in Palat. He has seemed bullish lately with the Palat-Hughes-Bratt line, but the underlying numbers still leave much to be desired. Despite its mediocre numbers, it is a vast improvement over Palat’s play overall this season. He has played the eighth most minutes of any forward despite playing one less game than most of the roster. In that time he has the team’s worst plus/minus at a minus-7 and has been on the ice for the third most goals against of any forward in the NHL. He is the only Devils starting forward without a goal, and has played to a xGF% of 38.26, good enough for 12th worst in the entire NHL. Keefe is running out of places to try Palat and the winger with Stanley Cup pedigree needs to right the ship quickly to avoid dragging the team down with him.
8. The Fourth Line Has Set The Tone
The Devils have shuffled at least six forwards through their fourth line this season, making it the most shuffled line on the team. While the results have been up and down, the energy has not. Whether it is Curtis Lazar and his team-leading 36 hits or Kurtis MacDermid’s patrolling the ice to protect his teammates, the fourth line has consistently set the tone for the Devils. In under three minutes of ice time Friday night against the Islanders, MacDermid had five hits, a fight, and served notice to the division rival that they would not allow them to continue to take liberties against New Jersey’s star players.
Sunday night against Anaheim, Lazar suffered an apparent knee injury on a dirty, low hip check directly to his knee by Ducks captain Radko Gudas. MacDermid immediately went to Gudas and challenged him to a fight, but Gudas declined. Fpr the remainder of the game, MacDermid and players like Dillon and Noesen looked to impose their will on the Ducks through physicality, a trait the Devils were missing last season.
The fourth line, anchored by Lazar and Bastian put up positive xGF% with almost every third player that was added, with the exception of Palat. The Tatar, Lazar, and Bastian line has the highest xGF% of any Devils line who has played at least 15 minutes together. The loss of Lazar will impact New Jersey both on and off the ice as he embodies the spirit of the team in always bringing energy and a positive spirit while constantly doing the little things teams need to win. Maintaining the impact of the fourth line has to be a priority for Keefe moving forward.
9. Special Teams
Last season’s power play was a roller coaster. The Devils began the season succeeding on almost 40% of their chances with the man advantage over the first month of the season. Then disaster struck with injuries to Hischier, Hughes, and Hamilton, and the team went into a historic funk, scoring only 17 power play goals over 39 games from Jan. 1 to April 1, 2024. The team would finish the season 13th overall in percentage. To understand how steep the fall was, a little more than a quarter into the season (22 games) they already had 27 power-play goals. Over the next 60 games, they only scored 28 more. While there are many reasons why it floundered including injuries, personnel, and a reluctance to adapt, it appears the team has found the key to revitalizing the power play. A free agent signed for his work ethic and grit, native Texan Stefan Noesen has been the catalyst to the Devils’ new-found power play success.
Few Devils supporters looked at the acquisition of Noesen as a potential boon to the power play but Fitzgerald certainly understood that to be the case. At his press conference following the first few days of free agency, he referenced Noesen’s power play contributions in Carolina and that having a right-handed, net front presence could be a big help to New Jersey. The Devils have struggled to find the net-front screener, below-the-goal-line puck winner and greasy goal scorer fit on their power play. They previously used Bastian and Meier in that role but neither is suited to that role like Noesen. He has been on the ice for seven of the team’s NHL-leading 12 power-play goals, scoring twice himself.
Noesen takes up space and must be accounted for, and his presence has allowed Hischier to roam freer in the high slot, which has resulted in four goals for the captain with the man advantage. The Devils have more than enough talent on the wings to slot guys in and out depending on matchups and how they are playing. Having Noesen adds an element the team had been sorely missing and as long as he remains healthy should lead to the team staying in the top-five in power play standings, especially once Hughes finds his groove.
10. Will the Real Timo Meier Please Stand Up
For the first time in his Devils career, Meier is fully healthy and it definitely shows in his play. The sturdy Swiss forward has been a menace on the ice in all three zones. After battling through two knee injuries, a shoulder injury, and a “medium body” injury last season, he has returned to the lineup healthy and is a noticeably different player. He is the only player with better underlying numbers than Hischier, which is saying something. The talk of Meier being a disappointment was always misplaced, as since the day New Jersey acquired him, nobody on the team has scored more goals, despite his health issues.
This season, Meier has been impactful on almost every shift on both sides of the puck. He leads the team in xGF% with over 58. The team has outscored opponents 9-3 with him on the ice and the goalies have played to a .963 SV% with Meier in front of them, also tops on the team. His commitment to playing more physical on the forecheck and being more active defensively is evident, not only in his play, but also on the stat sheet as he is on pace for 185 hits, which would be a career high. He has also shown a willingness to step in and defend his teammates whether Hughes, Hischier, or Bratt was his linemate.
Meier appears poised for the breakout season that Fitzgerald and Devils fans have been waiting for since his acquisition as he is on pace for between 75-80 points, in the neighborhood of his career-high 76. He has demonstrated that with a coach committed to deploying him in situations that favor his play and a return to his aggressive play style due to a clean bill of health, he can be the true power forward New Jersey needs to make deep runs in the playoffs.
The first 12 games have been an up-and-down journey for New Jersey. They now head out west to try to rekindle the long winning streak they authored two seasons ago beginning with a long western swing in November. The team’s success has been a full team effort as unheralded players like Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnathan Kovacevic have formed possibly the best shutdown defensive pairs in the NHL so far this season. If the Devils can continue to get contributions throughout the lineup, they have a real chance to grow into the contender many foresaw when the season began.
