Should the Ducks & Mammoth Match Offer Sheets for Carlsson & Hayton?

There are two offer sheets everyone has their eyes on this offseason. That of Barrett Hayton with the Utah Mammoth and New Jersey Devils, and especially Leo Carlsson with the Anaheim Ducks and Philadelphia Flyers. Carlsson’s is a mega offer. The Flyers tendered an offer sheet that will make Carlsson the highest-paid player in the NHL with an $18 million AAV for five years, and it will impact the Ducks whether they match or not.

The Mammoth have until Wednesday, July 8, to match Hayton’s offer sheet, while the Ducks have until Friday, July 10, to match Carlsson’s. The big question now is, should either team match the offer sheets? Or should they take the draft compensation?

Hayton Might Be More Clear-Cut Than Carlsson

You might look at Hayton’s offer sheet, which was worth $4.775 million on a one-year deal, and think this is an easy decision for the Mammoth to match, but not so fast. This was a well-thought-out offer sheet by the Devils and new GM Sunny Mehta.

Because Hayton is 26, he is one year away from unrestricted free agency. This is where the poison pill element will affect the Mammoth’s decision. If the Mammoth and GM Bill Armstrong match, they cannot trade Hayton for a year. That would walk him right to being a UFA next summer.

The draft compensation for letting Hayton sign with the Devils would be a 2027 second-round pick. Cam Robinson of Elite Prospects reported that the Devils and Mammoth were closing to a trade for Hayton at the draft, but the Mammoth pulled out at the last minute.

Because the Mammoth already seemed to be considering trading Hayton, they might be leaning toward declining to match the Devils’ offer sheet. The makeup of their roster certainly suggests that’s possible, too. They might not necessarily need Hayton anymore.

After acquiring Vincent Trocheck from the New York Rangers, the Mammoth’s center depth is Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, and Trocheck. They also have Kevin Stenlund as a fourth-line center, and Jack McBain is capable of playing down the middle, too.

There’s no question that the Mammoth have the cap space to retain Hayton. Including his $4.775 million cap hit, they have about $4.58 million in cap space. The money is there, but the roster space isn’t. And if they were already planning to trade Hayton, or at least shopping him, taking the second-round pick may be the best outcome since they can’t trade him if they match the offer sheet.

It’s also worth noting that if a player signs an offer sheet with another team, he may be looking for a change of scenery. It’s not like the Devils are offering Hayton $18 million per year, where money may talk. A $4.775 million salary is about even with his market value, so he may just want out of Utah. We’ll see what their final decision is, but I’d lean toward the Mammoth declining to match and letting him sign with the Devils.

Ducks Put Themselves in a Precarious Situation

Elliotte Friedman reported that the Ducks were staying quiet this offseason to prepare for a potential offer sheet for Carlsson. Even then, I don’t think they expected a team to come in with an offer sheet that would make Carlsson the highest-paid player in the NHL.

The draft compensation for the offer sheet Carlsson just signed is four first-round picks. That’s at the heart of the decision that GM Pat Verbeek and the Ducks face. Do they take the four first-round picks? Or do they match? They probably should match, but it’s not that simple.

On one hand, Carlsson is a first-line center, and he’s only going to get better as he matures. He’s just 21 and hasn’t even entered his prime yet. On the other hand, he’s not an $18 million per year player, and he’s unlikely to ever reach that level. That type of money is reserved for the Connor McDavids of the world, and odds are that Carlsson won’t ever become a McDavid-level player who’s competing for the Hart Trophy year in and year out.

On the other hand, the Ducks are unlikely to find the next Carlsson with the four-round picks they’d receive from the Flyers. If the Ducks decline to match and let Carlsson sign with the Flyers, you’d have to think that the Flyers will be at least a decent team. Therefore, those draft picks would probably come in the middle to late part of the first round.

Chances are you won’t be finding the next Carlsson with those picks. It’s quite rare that first-line forwards and first-pair defensemen come from the middle of the first round. And that’s one of the dilemmas for the Ducks. If you let Carlsson walk, there’ll probably be a bit of a retool in the short term, but they would have eight first-round picks over the next four NHL drafts.

Perhaps the Ducks could use some of those surplus firsts to acquire a first-line center. Dylan Larkin would make sense, but he’s not Carlsson, and there’s nearly a 10-year age difference between the two. That would impact a Ducks team whose contention window is just opening.

That’s why I’d lean toward the Ducks matching, just as Verbeek claims. But because Verbeek is a stubborn and difficult negotiator, the Ducks have let this devolve into something they could have easily avoided. They almost have no choice but to match, but their cap structure will be a mess moving forward.

They already had to overpay Pavel Mintyukov, who also seemed to be an offer sheet target, and they now have to clear cap space to re-sign Cutter Gauthier, who’s an RFA himself and could also command an AAV of eight figures. Signing Carlsson will affect the Ducks’ cap structure and how they can build their roster, but it may be the least worst of two bad options.

Decisions Loom

The Ducks are in a precarious spot. The four first-round picks they’d receive from the Flyers might not have much value, especially in a couple of years. But Carlsson is not worth $18 million per year (that would be a dilemma for the Flyers’ cap structure, too). At the same time, they can’t afford to lose Carlsson, so it’s a tough pill to swallow either way.

As for the Mammoth and Hayton, the choice seems a little more clear-cut. They have strong center depth after acquiring Trocheck, and Hayton would be a luxury at this point. They seem less inclined to match and let Hayton sign with the Devils, but time will tell. It should be an interesting week as we await the decisions from both teams.