Blue Jackets Face Ripple Effects From Flyers’ Record Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

The Philadelphia Flyers dropped the biggest nuclear bomb on the 2026 NHL offseason. Its ripple effects will be felt for years to come all over the league.

On Friday, the Flyers announced that they signed Anaheim Ducks’ center Leo Carlsson to a massive five-year, $90 million offer sheet. At an AAV of $18 million per season, Carlsson is set to become the NHL’s highest-paid player whether the Ducks choose to match it or not.

We are going to be talking about this moment for many years to come. It very well may have changed the course of the NHL for the foreseeable future.

Although the Ducks and Flyers are at the center of this situation, every other team in the league was put on notice about how business could be done in the future. This includes the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have their own RFA situation that remains outstanding as of this writing.

Fantilli’s Situation

The top-three picks of the 2023 NHL Draft all needed a new contract this offseason. Along with Carlsson, Blue Jackets’ star Adam Fantilli and Chicago Blackhawks’ star Connor Bedard were all waiting to see who would blink first when it came to their next contract.

Thanks to the Flyers, it was Carlsson who made the first big move. As a reminder on offer sheets, the player signed it meaning he was interested in that contract and going to that new team. Considering how front loaded the contract is with signing bonuses, who could blame him?

Try to imagine the reactions of both Fantilli and Bedard seeing this offer sheet. $18 million per season. If Carlsson is getting that, how much are his 2023 draft counterparts worth?

If you look at Fantilli’s numbers on the surface, they are very comparable to Carlsson’s. Both are three years into their NHL careers.

• Carlsson: 201 NHL games, 61 goals, 80 assists, 141 points. 12 playoff games, 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points.
• Fantilli: 213 NHL games, 67 goals, 73 assists, 140 points. Fantilli has yet to play in the NHL playoffs.

The thought was that Carlsson had a slight leg up based on Year 3 numbers and his appearance in the playoffs. Carlsson posted 29-38-67 in 70 games in 2025-26. Meanwhile, Fantilli posted 24-35-59 while playing in all 82 games for a second-consecutive season.

One could surmise that both Carlsson and Fantilli would be viewed in a similar manner based on the fact they are future top-line centers for their team. With numbers as close as they are, it would have made sense to see similar contracts.

What about now though? The Blue Jackets likely thought somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-$12 million per season would do the trick. Maybe it still does. But if you are Fantilli or his camp, don’t you have to look at the Carlsson number and think ‘if he got that number, what kind of number could we get?’

That is one of many questions now that must be considered. Let’s try to outline some of the questions and potential ripple effects of this situation from the Blue Jackets’ perspective.

Questions Facing the Blue Jackets

GM Don Waddell previously told the Hockey Writers that it seemed Fantilli was waiting for Bedard and Carlsson to get a sense of what his next contract might be. With the $18 million now known, the Blue Jackets have to immediately get to work considering some of the things that could happen.

Some rumors surfaced that there were multiple teams at least considering a Carlsson offer sheet. If that is true, who’s to say those same teams now look at Fantilli and see if that’s something they would consider?

With the free agent market as thin as ever and the desire to improve and win stronger than ever, teams are more willing and desperate to make bigger moves. There is urgency on the Blue Jackets part to make sure they get Fantilli under contract at a fair number.

That’s the next question. What is that fair number? $18 million is an outlier. There is also nuance to it.

The Flyers and Ducks have documented history with each other. It’s reasonable to believe that had something to do with the offer sheet being presented. Cutter Gauthier, anyone?

GM Daniel Briere and the Flyers knew if they were going to have a real chance at the Ducks not matching, it was going to have to be a whopper of an offer sheet that was way above market value. That’s what makes this situation more of an outlier. Not every team views Carlsson as an $18 million player. But to the Flyers considering where they’re at in all of this and how good Carlsson might eventually be, that $18 million is a good bet for them.

If the Ducks match, which they can given their cap space, it tightens them up for other future business they need to handle. If Carlsson is $18 million, how much does Gauthier think he’s worth coming off scoring 40 goals? Would Pavel Mintyukov then see his own offer sheet?

If the Ducks don’t match, they do get four first-round picks but lose their number-one center. Considering Pat Verbeek declared he would match any offer sheet, how bitter would that be if they now said they’d rather have the draft picks? This is truly fascinating on many levels.

Back to Fantilli. Connor McDavid chose to take less than market value by signing a two-year, $12.5 million contract with the Oilers. Surely the team would look at that and say Fantilli shouldn’t get more than that.

Again, that is nuance specific to Edmonton. They want to build a winner. McDavid took less to allow the team to build around him.

In Columbus, Fantilli is their future up front. He is a projected top-line center who will be depended upon to play at a franchise level. That comes with a cost. That could put his worth above $12.5 million in the Blue Jackets’ situation.

Ultimately, the Carlsson offer sheet throws a massive wrench into things. How much more will the Blue Jackets have to pay to get Fantilli to sign? Will other teams try and offer say $15 million to test the Blue Jackets?

The Blue Jackets have over $21 million in cap space as of this writing. They are in position to handle a Fantilli contract. But where things get dicey is the fact that they have two other RFA’s in Cole Sillinger and Jet Greaves. Both players have arbitration rights. Greaves has shown an upside of being a potential number-one goalie. Could they become targets of offer sheets if the Fantilli number reaches a certain place?

From Waddell’s words from before, it appears that the Blue Jackets had a budget. He had said spending around $100-$101 million. After Carlsson’s offer sheet, can we say for certain the budget is the same?

That’s why it is now paramount for the Blue Jackets to get the Fantilli deal done as soon as possible. The longer it goes, the more risk that an offer sheet may be presented that puts the team in a rough spot similar to the Ducks.

Whether Fantilli would be open to an offer sheet remains to be seen. But the ripple effects of the Carlsson offer sheet were felt inside the walls of Nationwide Arena.

The biggest question now becomes what is the sweet spot for Fantilli? 10 feels low now. 12? 13? If teams considered Carlsson at 15, wouldn’t they do the same for Fantilli?

Notice that Carlsson’s deal is five years. That would take him to UFA status and beyond. He would be set for another massive payday down the road. Term on Fantilli’s deal becomes another question. Where is that sweet spot? How much term is he willing to consider at this point?

Waddell said on Thursday he would match anything if someone presented an offer sheet. Whether that comes to fruition remains to be seen. But the Blue Jackets now have urgency to get their business done.

This exercise will serve as a lesson to anyone who has star RFA’s on their team. Sign them as soon as possible for as long as possible. Otherwise, you leave yourself open for an over-market offer sheet that could be crippling to you one way or another.

Let’s see how quickly the Blue Jackets try to get things done. It would be in their best interest to do so.