P.O. Joseph Could Be Ideal Extra Defenseman for Hurricanes

Pierre-Olivier Joseph’s contract with the Carolina Hurricanes raised some eyebrows within the fanbase. Many of those questions stem from the looming uncertainty around restricted free agent (RFA) defenseman Alexander Nikishin. Joseph isn’t a replacement for Nikishin and is unlikely to affect the Hurricanes’ outlook on the Russian; however, Joseph’s skill set does contribute well to what they want from their blue line. His fit with the team is incredibly delicate, and the role he fills will be important to the Hurricanes’ title defense.

Joseph’s Skill Set

What Joseph is good at is taking the puck away. He had 1.31 takeaways per 60 minutes of ice time in all situations, according to Natural Stat Trick. That was good enough for 36th among all NHL defensemen. It’s worth noting that Joseph only played 400 minutes in his 31 games, so it isn’t an extensive sample size, but it shows he can be effective with limited minutes.

Given Joseph’s ability to play as both a left defenseman and a right defenseman and his success in limited minutes, it makes him a good theoretical fit as a seventh defenseman. Last season, Carolina used Mike Reilly in that role, and he saw much more ice time in comparison to Joseph because of all the blue line injuries the Hurricanes endured. Joseph would give the Hurricanes a better chance of cutting off opponents’ attacks, which matters for a team built on fundamentals like Carolina.

The Depth Headache

Where this gets confusing is that the Hurricanes now have Joseph, Reilly, Jusso Valimaki, Charles Alexis Legault, and even Joel Nystrom, all of whom have a shot at making the roster. Even for a team built on organizational depth, that’s a lot of defensemen. Joseph is going to have stiff competition trying to land that spot as the extra defenseman on the Hurricanes blue line.

His major advantage, again, is his ability to play both sides of the ice. Players like Legault and Nystrom are predominantly right-shot defenders and less flexible in positioning than Joseph. Also, given their age, it makes less sense to put those two in the press box. They need regular ice time, which they are more likely to get with the Chicago Wolves, to keep developing. You don’t want those young guys eating popcorn and collecting dust in the press box when they have a bright future to work toward. That leaves Valimaki, Reilly, and Joseph.

Valimaki is a great story. He had a nasty ACL tear; even by ACL-tear standards, it was bad. He’s been working his way back quietly and has really found a home with the Wolves. He brings NHL experience and guidance to prospects in the minors while remaining an option the Hurricanes can use if they need him. However, it has been more than a year since the Finnish defenseman last played in the NHL. It makes Joseph and Reilly the safer choices for a spot on the 23-man roster. So, who’s the better fit here?

Head-to-Head

This is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Reilly played on the Stanley Cup champion while Joseph played on the worst team in the NHL, standings-wise. This discrepancy in teammate quality (QoT) will factor into some of the analytical comparisons between the two. It’s also worth remembering that Carolina’s domination in zone time limits the amount of defense the team has to play, mostly affecting the blue line.

Reilly slightly edges the expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick. His 2.46, compared to Joseph’s 2.58, is a slight improvement. However, this is where the difference in team comes into play. Would Reilly have done as well as he did in Vancouver? That’s questionable. Reilly’s stats are only marginally better on a team as dominant across the ice as Carolina, including possession, which makes this seem closer than the numbers suggest.

Looking at the individual numbers, Joseph averages 1.38 takeaways per 60 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5. Reilly had just 0.74. That’s a major gap. Again, Carolina’s constant possession made it harder for Reilly to notch takeaways, but it is worth noting. That’s in addition to Joseph’s 2.77 hits per 60 minutes, whereas Reilly had just 1.69. Physical defensemen like Joseph are important in the postseason to help grind down opponents, as long as these hits are laid at the right moments. Plus, he helps solidify the Hurricanes’ physicality. That’s important come playoff time.

None of this matters if Joseph cannot keep up with the team around him. Carolina’s high-speed system requires high-level skating to succeed. Joseph’s skating is just better, according to NHL Edge, than Reilly’s. Joseph’s top speed is 23 mph, while Reilly only got to 21.07 mph. Speed isn’t the only thing. Joseph averaged 8.96 miles skated per 60 minutes of ice time; Reilly averaged just 8.71. Joseph statistically covers larger distances than Reilly, which is vital for a team that can get caught too deep in the offensive zone like Carolina.

To put it into context, Joseph’s overall average shot quality against was on par with Reilly’s. That is before accounting for the difference in how good the team around them was. Joseph skates faster and typically covers more ice when he plays than Reilly does. Add to that Joseph’s flexibility in positioning, and suddenly the confusing move to bring Joseph in makes more sense.

The Seventh Defender Conundrum

Ultimately, the Hurricanes will likely have time to decide. With Seth Jarvis on the shelf recovering from shoulder surgery, there is a free roster spot that will allow the Hurricanes to carry both defenders and make the decision down the line if there isn’t a clear winner in training camp. Both could fill that role, which breeds competition before the season starts. On paper, the stats go with Joseph, but the game is played on the ice, so that will be the deciding factor.